Barack Obama: Then vs. Now

Then: Senator Obama on April 25, 2005, speaking about President Bush's effort to privatize Social Security:

"I mean, the fact of the matter is, is the president has been on his 60-day tour, and everywhere he goes the numbers just get worse. The American people have essentially voted on this proposal and really what you have is a situation now where I think that the president and the Republican Congress are going to need to figure out a way to save face and -- and step back a little bit. And if -- if they let go of their egos -- listen, I've been on the other side of this where -- particularly with my wife. (laughter) Where I've gotten in an argument and then at some point in the argument it dawns on me, you know what, I'm wrong on this one and it's -- it's -- it's irritating, it's frustrating. You don't want to admit it, and so to the extent that we can provide the president with a graceful mechanism to -- to say we're sorry, Dear, then I think that would be -- that would be helpful."

Now:  Approval of President Obama's health care proposals is at 37%. He's toured the country and given dozens of speeches about health care over the last year and, to borrow Obama's own words, "everywhere he goes the numbers just get worse."

Yet instead of taking his own advice from 2005 and finding a graceful way to pull the plug, the President insists that the real problem is that the public doesn't understand his proposals, that his biggest mistake last year wasn't explaining them well enough, and he insists on pushing forward and "punching" something through.

UPDATE: Megan McArdle catches the New York Times in an equally embarrasing "then vs. now" moment regarding Bush's Social Security effort in 2005 and Obama's health care push this year.


Great Moments in Broadcast Journalism

Tim Russert must be so proud NBC News hitched its reputation to this modern day Edward R. Murrow:

Is it any wonder Olbermann's ratings are tanking?


For It While They Were Against It

The Washington Times uncovered at least a dozen instances of Republican lawmakers publicly denouncing the Democrats' federal stimulus plan last year while simultaneously seeking stimulus money -- through letters to executive branch agencies -- for their districts and states.

More than a dozen Republican lawmakers, while denouncing the stimulus to the media and their constituents, privately sent letters to just one of the federal government's many agencies seeking stimulus money for home-state pork projects.

The letters to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, expose the gulf between lawmakers' public criticism of the overall stimulus package and their private lobbying for projects close to home.

I noted a similar strategy in a story a year ago, when Republicans railed and voted against the omnibus appropriations bill because it was loaded with earmarks, while at the same time requesting a big portion of those earmarks and touting the money they were bringing home once the bill had passed.

Republicans in Congress vilified Democrats for both the overall size and the number of earmarks attached to the $410 billion omnibus appropriations bill that Obama signed Wednesday. However, despite the rhetoric, Republicans requested 40 percent of the earmarks and ranked among the highest pork barrel spenders.

Six of the 10 senators that requested the most earmark dollars were Republicans, according to Taxpayers for Common Sense, a non-partisan budget watchdog group. In the House, Republicans accounted for five of the top 10.


TX Gov Poll: Perry +11

Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 11 points for the Republican nomination as he seeks re-election, according to a new PPP poll. And Debra Medina is surging in third place, trailing Hutchison by only 4 points.

In the Democratic primary, former Houston Mayor Bill White garners 49% and holds a large lead over his opponents.

Perry 39
Hutchison 28
Medina 24
Und 10

The survey was conducted Feb. 4-7 of 400 likely Democratic voters and 423 likely Republican voters. The margin of error for the Democrats was 4.9% and Republicans 4.8%.

Perry has led every poll since November by double digits.


Those Were The Days

Legislative leaders from both parties are meeting with President Obama now to discuss the economy, the first of the monthly bicameral, bipartisan meetings promised in the State of the Union address. Meanwhile, the back and forth between Congressional Republicans and the White House over the proposed health care summit continues.

Yesterday, Minority Leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell said they would attend the summit, but only if the White House agreed to certain ground rules, making it clear they think the entire legislative effort should start over. Robert Gibbs responded that the president would not "walk away from reform and the millions of American families and small business counting on it." He also reminded the leaders of a meeting the president held with GOP leadership last March seeking their input.

Now, a GOP leadership aide e-mails a copy of a letter Republicans sent the administration as the process moved forward last spring, asking for another White House meeting. The aide also provided the president's reply, which, in the words of the aide, amounted to saying: "thanks, but no thanks." Included in that letter was this statement from the president: "I believe legislation that addresses issues of cost, coverage, and quality of care will pass the House of Representatives by August 1."

In fact, that bill only passed the House on November 7. The Senate passed its own version just before Christmas. And then, of course, Scott Brown was elected to the Senate, effectively shelving the bill for the foreseeable future.

For more, read Kyle's take on the health care summit here.

UPDATE: Speaking with reporters at the White House after today's meeting, both McConnell and Boehner did not rule out skipping the proposed February 25 summit. Both stressed the need to start over on legislation, with Boehner arguing it was futile to continue discussion on the current bill.

"It's going to be very difficult to have a bipartisan conversation with regard to a 2,700-page health care bill that the Democrat majority in the House and the Democratic majority in the Senate can't pass," the House minority leader said. "Why are we going to talk about a bill that can't pass? It's time to scrap the bill and start over."


NH Poll: Dems Face A Thumpin'

New Hampshire Democrats have been on a roll for years, particularly at the federal level in winning both House seats in 2006, a Senate race in 2008, and going blue for Democrats in the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008. But a new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll shows that the party is in danger of a clean sweep in 2010.

First, the Senate race to replace Judd Gregg (R). Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), and he doesn't poll above 40 in any matchup, even with the lesser-known potential opponents he leads.

Ayotte (R) 41 -- Hodes (D) 33 -- Und 25
Hodes (D) 38 -- Lamontagne (R) 29 -- Und 30
Hodes (D) 34 -- Binnnie (R) 30 -- Und 33
Hodes (D) 36 -- Bender (R) 27 -- Und 35

In the first Congressional District, Rep. Carol Shea Porter sees her favorable rating dip to 35 percent while 40 percent now view her unfavorably, a net drop of 11 points from October. Right now four Republicans are likely running to challenge her, and she trails each one.

Guinta (R) 43 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 22
Ashooh (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 28
Bestani (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 30
Mahoney (R) 39 -- Shea Porter (D) 32 -- Und 28

The second Congressional District sees an open seat race. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Hodes in 2006; 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) is also running again. On the Democratic side, attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) will likely face 2002 nominee Katrine Swett (D). Bass leads both Democrats, while only Swett musters a lead over Horn.

Bass (R) 37 -- Swett (D) 30 -- Und 33
Bass (R) 39 -- Kuster (D) 28 -- Und 33

Swett (D) 30 -- Horn (R) 26 -- Und 43
Horn (R) 28 -- Kuster (D) 25 -- Und 44

These outcomes come in the same survey that showed President Obama's support in the Granite State slipping, particularly among independents. The statewide matchups are based on a sample of 444 likely voters interviewed from January 27 to February 3, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. The CD-1 sample was 251 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%) and the CD-2 sample was 249 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%).


Paul Ryan Won't Run For Prez In 2012

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R) said over the weekend that he will not run for president in 2012.

However, while Ryan has ruled out a national bid, he is still considering running for statewide office in two years. In an interview with RealClearPolitics last week, Ryan said he may run for Senate in 2012, when Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) -- who just turned 75 -- will be up for re-election.

The budget expert's profile, already on the rise, has catapulted since President Obama engaged him two weeks ago during the president's televised appearance before the House Republican Conference.


OH Gov Poll: Kasich Maintains Lead

The Ohio governor race really kicked off in the past month, as both John Kasich (R) and incumbent Ted Strickland (D) announced their running mates. Strickland also delivered his state-of-the-state address in recent weeks. And yet, Rasmussen's latest poll in the Buckeye State (500 LVs, 2/5-6, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds little movement for either candidate, with the former Republican Congressman still ahead.

General Election Matchup
Kasich 47 (unch vs. last poll, 1/12)
Strickland 41 (+1)
Und 8 (unch)

As noted yesterday, Strickland's job approval rating has ticked up three points since January, and now stands at 46 percent. Kasich's favorable rating is 47 percent, with 30 percent viewing him unfavorably.


CO Gov Poll: Hickenlooper +4

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) leads former congressman Scott McInnis (R) in a matchup between the two parties' likely gubernatorial nominees, according to a new Rasmussen survey (Feb. 4, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5). Hickenlooper jumped in the race last month, shortly after a poll found him down 3 points.

Hickenlooper 49 (+7 vs. last poll, Jan. 7)
McInnis 45 (nc)
Und 6

Hickenlooper is more well known statewide than McInnis, whom a fifth of voters have no opinion about. Both candidates have favorable ratings higher than 50%.


White House Health Care Meeting Met With Skepticism On The Hill

President Obama's recently proposed White House health care meeting was immediately met with skepticism on Capitol Hill -- Republicans are wary of the motives behind the move, while Democrats doubt the result will be any different than negotiations with the GOP over the past year.

Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, called it “a hollow PR blitz,” adding, “Republicans welcome honest discussion, but this event reeks of political gamesmanship.” GOP House leaders John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Eric Cantor (R-Va.) sent a lengthy letter to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel outlining their many concerns with the meeting.

On the Senate side, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) indicated a willingness to talk as long as the plans that passed the two chambers are scrapped and the two sides start from scratch, which Boehner and Cantor called for as well.

“If we are to reach a bipartisan consensus, the White House can start by shelving the current health spending bill,” said McConnell.

Meanwhile, some liberal members aren't convinced Republicans are willing to negotiate and believe the opposing party has simply adopted an obstructionist political strategy -- and the event could provide a televised forum for political posturing.

“If there is an earnest effort to come to some kind of understanding, then it's worth the effort,” Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said Monday in an interview with RealClearPolitics. “Personally, I'm not optimistic.”

President Obama announced the Feb. 25 meeting during an interview with CBS
News just before the Super Bowl, hoping the televised effort will help bring transparency and solutions to the Democrats' stalled effort of reforming the health care system. Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate will be invited, though it's unclear which of the many factions in the debate are willing to compromise their priorities to solve the impasse.

For instance, liberals are still pushing the public option, which was left out of the Senate bill after failing to receive enough support and assumed to be a nonstarter in bicameral negotiations.

With weather permitting, Grijalva and other Progressive Caucus leaders will meet late this afternoon with several senators, including Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), to discuss the government-run insurance option, an insurance exchange and other reform measures.

“We don't think they're dead,” Grijalva said of the progressives' priorities. “I hate to be pessimistic about the White House meeting, but regardless of what happens with that we're still working to get something done.”



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