2012 Watch: No GOP Frontrunner; Obama In Jeopardy

A national Gallup survey finds that President Obama leads a generic Republican by just 2 points in a hypothetical re-election matchup.

Independents are leaning toward the unnamed Republican by a double-digit margin -- 45 percent vs. 31 percent for Obama.

The same survey finds that Republicans have no clear frontrunner to take on Obama, however, with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin leading the pack as the only candidates with double-digit support. In an open-ended question over who Republicans would like to see as their nominee, new Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) actually gets more support than some likely candidates, including Mike Huckabee and Tim Pawlenty.

Romney 14
Palin 11
McCain 7
Brown 4
Huckabee 3
Gingrich 3
Paul 2
Pawlenty 1
McDonnell 1
Thompson 1
Jindal 1
Other 10
Und 42

The hypothetical 2012 matchup is based on a sample of 942 RVs interviewed from Feb. 1-3, with a margin of error of +/- 4%. The Republican nominee question is based on a subsample of 490 Republican and Republican-leaning independents, with a margin of error of +/- 5%.


Problem Solved in Illinois?

Still reeling from the embarrassment of seeing a pawnbroker who held a knife to his prostitute/ex-girlfriend's throat win his way onto the Democrats' statewide ticket as Lt. Governor, the Democratic House Speaker in Springfield has come up with a solution: eliminate the Lt. Governor position altogether.

Nevermind that both New York and Illinois found these "do nothing" positions coming in pretty handy in recent years when their respective governors imploded amid scandal.

Meanwhile, the Democrats' decision to handpick a replacement for Cohen instead of giving the nod to the man finished second in the primary last week is causing a controversy all its own. John Kass explains:

Say you compete for an Olympic gold medal. You've spent your entire life training, and when the starter's pistol sounds, you go as fast as you can.

Sadly, the gods decide to play a cruel joke. You come in second to some hapless Illinois pawnbroker.

Then it turns out that the pawnbroker gets himself disqualified, either for steroid abuse, or perhaps for some wild knife-to-a-hooker's-throat allegation, or a combination of the above.

But since you came in second, the Olympic bosses do the right thing. They give you the gold.

It's only fair. And every athlete in the world knows it to be fair.

They would never, ever withhold the medal from you because you have black skin.

They'd never say, "Oh, wait a minute, we have too many black athletes winning gold medals, let's find some Greek or a Korean or Indian or Irishman because they haven't won enough, so their ethnic groups will give us money."

That would not only be wrong. It would be racism at its ugliest, racism for a price.

Yet isn't that exactly what the Illinois Democratic Party is doing to Art Turner in the backroom politicking for Illinois lieutenant governor?


Quinnipiac: Obama Approval at 45

A new national survey from Quinnipiac (2/2-2/8) shows President Obama's job approval rating at 45%, with 46% disapproving. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from Quinnpiac's last survey in January (45/45). Overall, President Obama's job rating in the RealClearPolitics Average stands at 47.8% approve, 46.4% disapprove.

President Obama's job ratings across a range of specific issues remain lower than his overall job approval and are unchanged from last month:

Economy: 41% approve (nc), 54% disapprove (nc)
Health Care: 35 approve (nc), 58 disapprove (nc)
Creating Jobs: 37 approve (+3), 56 disapprove (-3)
Budget Deficit: 33 approve (na), 60 disapprove (na)

Other notables from the poll: Congress' approval ratings remain low, with just 28% approving of the Democrats and 28% approving of the Republicans. And in another sign of voters' low opinion of government generally, 73% said both parties were to blame for gridlock in Washington (12% blamed Democrats and 17% blamed Republicans).

Forty-six percent said Democrats "are not considering Republican points of view in pushing legislation" while 37% said "are misusing the filibuster to block legislation." Among Independents those numbers are 48% and 31%, respectively.

Voters remain sour on President Obama's health care plans. Only 35% "mostly approve of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress" while a 54% majority "mostly disapprove" - both numbers unchanged in the last month. Among Independents only 29% mostly approve and 60% mostly disapprove.

Forty-three percent say the current plans go "too far," while 30% say they "do not go far enough." Fifty-two percent say they think Obama and Congress should continue to try and pass a health care overhaul, while 44% say they should "give up and go on to other matters." Independents are evenly split on the question, with 48% favoring continued effort and 46% saying Obama should throw in the towel.

Lastly, large majorities support a new $100 billion "jobs bill" (72% favor) and President Obama's call for a spending freeze on discretionary non-defense items (78% favor).


Obama Unplugged

Obama steps in it in an interview with Bloomberg. Looks like the President, operating sans prompter, could have used a couple of helpful reminders to keep himself on message:


Two More House Retirements

The Capitol is shut down for the third straight day, but two new retirements have been announced by members of the House of Representatives.

AP reports that the threat of a primary from his right has led Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R-MI) to retire. He's serving his ninth term. "Each of us should recognize that the world doesn't depend just on us and I've been there 16 years now and that's more than enough time for most people and I've accomplished a great deal," Ehlers told AP. "I just felt this was a good time to go."

State Rep. Justin Amash (R) had announced his candidacy for the seat this week, and the field could now grow further. John McCain edged Barack Obama in the district in 2008, though the Cook Political Report calls it "one of the two most Republican districts in Michigan."

Meanwhile, The Hill cites Democratic sources in reporting that Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) will also not seek a new term. She's represented her heavily-Democratic Los Angeles district since 2001.


TX Gov Poll: Medina Running Strong

Former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) trails all three of his potential Republican opponents in the Texas gubernatorial race, a new PPP poll finds (Feb. 4-7, 1200 RV, MoE +/- 2.8%).

While approval ratings are down for Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, small business owner Debra Medina now appears just as strong against White as the two GOP frontrunners.

Perry 48
White 42
Und 10

Hutchison 45
White 38
Und 17

Medina 44
White 38
Und 18


WaPo/ABC Poll: 'Restless Electorate'

The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey "paints a portrait of a restless and dissatisfied electorate at the beginning of a critical election year," writes the Post's Balz and Cohen. "More than seven in 10 Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, and as many say they're inclined to look for new congressional representation as said so in 1994 and 2006, the last times that control of Congress shifted."

While President Obama gets a 51% job approval rating (with 46% disapproving), he has a net negative rating for his handling of four out of five specific issues: health care, the economy, the deficit and creating jobs. On the threat of terrorism, 56% approve while 39% disapprove.

Obama now has a 48.0% RCP Average Job Approval rating.

In the generic ballot vote, Democrats and Republicans tied at 46% apiece -- almost identical to the Gallup survey out yesterday that found the parties tied at 45%.

Republicans now lead by 3.0 points in the RCP Average Generic Ballot Vote.


PA Sen Poll: Toomey Keeps Lead

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter continues to hold a significant lead over his Democratic primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, but has not made a dent in his general election deficit former Republican congressman Pat Toomey, according to a new Rasmussen survey.

Democratic Primary (Feb. 8, 425 Dem LV, MoE +/- 5%)
Specter 51 (-2 vs. last poll, Jan. 20)
Sestak 36 (+4)
Und 9

Specter leads Sestak by 18.4 points in the RCP Average

General Election (Feb. 8, 1000 LV, MoE +/- 3%)
Toomey 47 (-2 vs. last poll, Jan. 21)
Specter 38 (-2)
Und 10

Toomey 43 (nc vs. last poll, Jan. 21)
Sestak 35 (nc)
Und 15

Toomey leads Specter by 7.6 points and Sestak by 11.6 points in the RCP Average


Irony of the Day

CBS News' Bob Schieffer in an interview with Broadcasting & Cable:

Technology has changed a lot. Has it changed how you do things?

Yes, for those of us who think of ourselves as being in the mainstream media, I think our role now is to knock down these false reports that pop up on the Internet. We spent most of our time during Sept. 11 knocking down false reports that popped up on the Internet.

Ironic, really, since not too long ago it was the good folks on the Internet knocking down false reports from CBS News.


Gibbs Mocks Palin, Tea Party Convention

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, speaking moments after President Obama departed from the briefing room podium, delighted in mocking Sarah Palin for having notes written on her hand during Saturday's Tea Party Nation speech.

“Oh I wrote a few things down,” he said while glancing at his left hand, and then displaying it for all the cameras to see. “I wrote ‘eggs, milk and bread. But I crossed out bread, just so I can make pancakes for Ethan if it snows. And then I wrote down 'hope and change,' just in case I forgot.”

Asked later by RCP if the White House had any reaction to this weekend's tea party convention, and whether the administration viewed it as a real political force this year, Gibbs again took on a mocking tone.

"It seems to be a very successful private enterprise," he said. "I would say that there appear to be fewer speechmakers that are unemployed in this economy than what might have been previously reported."

Turning more serious, he spoke of the tea party movement as reflecting "a great deal of anxiety" across the nation in tough economic times. And he pivoted back to today's message of bipartisanship as the answer.

"Whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, an independent, member of the tea party movement, you want to see this town be able to sit down and talk about their differences but also not just focus on their differences," he said.



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