A couple of quick observations about last night's Senate primary in Illinois. The short version is that Republicans probably couldn't have scripted a better outcome to set up a pick up opportunity in November. Here's why:

1) Kirk cruised. Mark Kirk was not a favorite of the conservative Republican base, and he was pummeled for (among other things) voting for the Democrats' cap-and-trade bill in the House last year. One unresolved question before Tuesday was whether conservatives would either stay home yesterday or defect in serious numbers to demonstrate a level of weakness for Kirk in November. Neither happened. Kirk won a very solid 56.6% of the vote to Hughes' 19.3% on good turnout (more on that in a second).

2) Alexi prevailed. Democratic voters put forth a valiant effort against the machine yesterday in trying to prevent Giannoulias' coronation but came up just short with Hoffman pulling in 33.8% to Alexi's 39.0%. Clearly, however, there's not a terrible amount of enthusiasm for Giannoulias given that 61% of Democrats voted for someone else. He will need all of these Democrats unified behind him in November.

And, of course, there's his baggage. The NRSC has already unloaded the first suitcase, and there will be plenty more to come during the course of the campaign. Of all the years to nominate a candidate with ties to corrupt government figures and a history of shading deal making, this was the wrong year.

3) Turnout. A quick comparison to 2004 tells the tale. Of course, 2004 was a presidential year that generated a lot more enthusiasm on the Democratic side, but it was also the last time Illinois had a competitive Senate primary on both sides.

In '04, turnout in the Republican Senate primary was 661,804. This year it was 736,137, an 11 percent increase. In '04 Barack Obama won his party's nomination taking 53% of the vote on turnout of 1,242,996. This year turnout in the Democratic primary was just 885,268, a decrease of nearly 30 percent.

So Republicans exit Tuesday's primary with an energized base and solid party support behind a moderate candidate, while Democrat enter the general election seemingly less enthusiastic and with a candidate with real political vulnerabilities.

The bottom line is that in order for any Republican to win statewide in Illinois they must win a combination of conservative voters in the southern part of the state and moderate voters in the suburbs outside of Chicago. Kirk is well positioned to do the latter. Barring a third party "Tea Party" type candidate who might siphon off conservative support, if Kirk can win over energized Republican voters downstate he will have a very real chance of picking up Obama's seat in November.

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