Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) leads former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) in a rematch of the 2006 contest, a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 2/23, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds.

General Election Matchup
O'Malley 49
Ehrlich 43
Und 5

Fifty-three percent of Marylanders approve of O'Malley's job performance, while 42 disapprove. President Obama has a 59 percent approval rating in the state.

Ehrlich has yet to announce his intentions, but is widely expected to run. O'Malley defeated Ehrlich 53-46 in 2006.

The bad news for Democrats in the latest Daily Kos-commissioned Research 2000 poll from Delaware: Rep. Mike Castle (R) is still comfortably ahead in the open-seat Senate race. But to the extent that there's good news, it's this: former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) appears likely to pick up Castle's House seat.

Oddly, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) has lost ground since he entered the race. A Rasmussen poll earlier this week found him gaining slightly on Castle. This is a special election in November to fill the final four years of Vice President Biden's unexpired term.

Senate General Election Matchup
Castle 53 (+2 vs. last poll, 10/12-14)
Coons 35 (-4)
Und 12 (+2)

Coons would defeat 2008 nominee Christine O'Donnell 47-31; O'Donnell has said she'll still challenge Castle for the GOP nomination.

After the jump, see the numbers in the at-large House race.

(more...)

Some quick notes on 2010:

The Boston Herald reports Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt "blew nearly $560,000 in campaign cash last year - much of it on lavish meals and a family-friendly payroll that includes his ex-wife, son-in-law and daughter - stoking speculation the Quincy Democrat is emptying his war chest and won't seek re-election."

Republicans are off and running in Colorado's 7th Congressional District. The winner of the GOP primary will square off against incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in what could be a very tough fight.

More campaign turmoil for the embattled Iowa Governor, Democrat Chet Culver.

In New Hampshire, Republican John Stephen announced he will run for Governor.

In California, Sami al-Arian is back and this time threatens to derail the Senate bid of Republican Tom Campbell.

Lastly, in Florida, Marco Rubio's "Creditgate" enters day two with a follow up report by the Miami Herald.

One-in-five South Dakota voters remain undecided in the race for governor, which is open with Gov. Mike Rounds (R) term-limited, according to a new Rasmussen poll. Running strongest among three potential Republican nominees is Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, who leads the only major Democratic candidate running, State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem, by 9 points.

Heidepriem leads his other two potential Republican opponents, State Sen. Gordon Howie and State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson.

Daugaard 41
Heidepriem 32
Und 19

Heidepriem 34
Knudson 31
Und 22

Heidepriem 37
Howie 29
Und 22

The survey was conducted Feb. 23 of 500 LV with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr's (R) lead on his potential Democratic opponents has grown since last month, according to a new Rasmussen poll. He now leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 16 points and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 22 points.

Burr 50 (+3 vs. last poll, Jan. 20)
Marshall 34 (-3)
Und 12

Burr leads Marshall by 11.3 points in the RCP Average

Burr 51 (+1 vs. last poll, Jan. 20)
Cunningham 29 (-5)
Und 14

Click here for previous Burr-Cunningham matchup polls.

President Obama, who won the state with 50% of the vote in 2008, now receives just a 43% job approval rating.

The survey was conducted Feb. 23 of 500 LV with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

In our new Week in Midterms feature at Politics Nation, we noted the ad war that has been launched this week in the Kentucky Senate race. An ad for Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) had challenged Rand Paul (R) on national defense, saying he "opposes the war in Iraq" and "doubts whether Afghanistan is still a threat."

Today, Paul is fighting back with a provocative spot that calls Grayson and Obama "dangerous allies."

The spot says Paul "believes a strong national defense is the most important responsibility of our government." It then says Grayson admitted voting for "draft dodger Bill Clinton," and shows a clip of Grayson pledging to work with President Obama.

The primary is May 18.

In the wake of some politically fatal press, New York Gov. David Paterson (D) will announce this morning that he will not seek the governorship this year, the New York Post reports. The announcement comes less than a week after he announced he would be running.

The New York Times reported this morning that those close to Paterson were advising him not to run after a damaging revelation Thursday of his alleged interference in a domestic violence case against one of his close aides.

That's the assessment of Seattle Times columnist Joni Balter, who spoke to Rossi this week about taking on Patty Murray. Balter writes:

Three months ago, voters would have chortled at the far-fetched idea that two-time gubernatorial candidate and former state Sen. Dino Rossi could run against Sen. Patty Murray this fall and have a prayer. Now, polls show Rossi the only Republican with a shot. I spoke with him recently and came away convinced he is eager to run, but not in a hurry. He has a difficult calculation to make.

Rossi can look to the Tea Party and be inspired that Republicans and even a few swing voters are fired up enough to support change. Rossi is not a fresh face, but he is a Washington, D.C., outsider. He is a Republican, not a Tea Party guy, but needs those voters to succeed. [snip]

In our state, Murray has yet to appear on a substantial list of vulnerable senators, and Rossi has yet to declare his candidacy. If he does, that could change. He tells people he has millions of dollars of name familiarity, which is true. He can legally delay until June, though that is politically very late.

Republicans wonder if the next election cycle might be like 1994, when Washington's congressional delegation swung from eight Democrats and one Republican to seven Republicans and two Democrats. Republicans want to be ready, in case.

The latest poll of the Washington Senate race, taken by Rasmussen two weeks ago, showed Rossi leading Murray 48 to 46.

Find the compelling answer here.

According to the newly released 2009 Senate rankings by National Journal, 5 Democrats tied for the title of "most liberal" with score of 94 (which represents a composite of votes on key economic, social and foreign-policy issues last year) while Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe wins the distinction of being the "most conservative" member of the Senate with a score of 95.8. Below I've listed the top 10 most liberal and most conservative members of the Senate:

Liberal
T1. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 94
T1. Roland Burris (D-IL) 94
T1. Ben Cardin (D-MD) 94
T1. Jack Reed (D-RI) 94
T1. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) 94
T6.John Kerry (D-MA) 92
T6. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) 92
8. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) 91
T9. Chris Dodd (D-CT) 89
T9. Dick Durbin (D-IL) 89

Conservative
1. James Inhofe (R-OK) 95.8
2. Jim DeMint (R-SC) 95
3. Jim Bunning (R-KY) 93.2
4. Tom Coburn (R-OK) 93
5. James Risch (R-ID) 90.8
6. John Thune (R-SD) 90
7. John Ensign (R-NV) 89.8
8. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 89.5
9. Richard Burr (R-NC) 88.8
10. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 88.7