Second worst anecdote I've seen for Marth a Coakley's campaign, from Karen Tumulty:

Her election-eve rally at a gym in a Framingham middle school was three-quarters empty; someone on the campaign had pulled a curtain across the midpoint of the gym, so that it wouldn't look even worse.

A Democratic operative familiar with Martha Coakley and the DSCC's massive get-out-the-vote operation says that outreach workers in and around Boston have been stunned by the number of Democrats and Obama supporters who are waving them off, saying they'll vote for Scott Brown.

The panic that has over taken liberals watching the Massachusetts Senate race has been perfectly reflected in the comically hysterical coverage on MSNBC.

Just in the last day or two we witnessed: Keith Olbermann's unhinged rant calling Scott Brown "an irresponsible, homophobic, racist, reactionary, ex-nude model, teabagging supporter of violence against women"; Ed Schultz suggesting that Democrats cheat to keep the Republican "bastards" from winning the Massachusetts Senate race; David Shuster introducing a segment on the Massachusetts Senate race by asking whether the Democratic leaning state has "lost its mind"; and Chris Matthews pining for the "old school" days when Democratic machine politicians would use "walking around money" to pack voters into booths to make absolutely sure they'd win races.

Poor Tim Russert must be spinning in his grave watching what passes for political commentary and analysis on MSNBC these days.

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As Democrats brace for a humbling election night in Massachusetts, a glimmer of hope in President Obama's home state: a new Mason Dixon poll (800 RVs, 1/8-12, MoE +/- 3.5%) shows the party has a legitimate chance of winning back the governor's office after an 8-year absence.

General Election Matchup
Abercrombie (D) 43 -- Aiona (R) 34 -- Und 23
Hannemann (D) 41 -- Aiona (R) 35 -- Und 24

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) has formally entered the race, and is expected to resign his House seat soon. Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) is looking to succeed Gov. Linda Lingle (R), who is the state's second GOP governor and first in 40 years. Mufi Hannemann, mayor of Honolulu, has not yet made his plans official.

In the race for Abercrombie's soon-to-be-vacant House seat (sample 403 RVs, MoE +/- 5%), both former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) lead GOP hopeful Charles Djou in separate matchups. But Abercrombie's resignation would trigger a winner-take-all special election that all three candidates would likely contest, giving the GOP an opening as the Democratic vote would be divided.

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PPP's new poll of North Carolina voters on John Edwards, taken in the wake of revelations about him contained in the book Game Changer:

John was already the record holder for the most unpopular person we've polled anywhere at any time but he's hit a new low now with 15% of voters in the state holding a favorable opinion of him, down from 19% last May. 72% have a negative opinion of him.

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Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) is off to a good start in his bid to succeed Chris Dodd in the Senate, according to a new Daily Kos/Research2000 poll (Jan. 11-13, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Blumenthal leads his three potential GOP opponents -- ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, ex-WWE executive Linda McMahon and economicst Peter Schiff -- all by about 20 points.

Blumenthal 54 - Simmons 35 - Und 11

Blumenthal 56 - McMahon 34 - Und 10

Blumenthal 56 - Schiff 33 - Und 11

In the race for governor, the poll found Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the strongest position among Democrats. However, she recently announced she will instead run for attorney general -- a decision that has set off some controversy as to whether she is legally qualified for the position.

2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D) leads three potential GOP opponents by about 10 points each, while ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy leads as well.
--
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New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D), still not in the gubernatorial race, leads potential foe Rick Lazio (R) by 42 points -- which is actually a 4-point margin decrease since the last survey in December, according to a new Siena poll (Jan. 10-14, 806 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%).

Lazio and Erie County Executive Chris Collins (R) fare far better against Gov. David Paterson (D) and Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy (D). Paterson is the only Dem not to lead either Republican.

In the Democratic primary, Cuomo leads with 59%, followed by Paterson (21%) and Levy (6%).

Governor
Cuomo 66 - Lazio 24
Paterson 42 - Lazio 42
Levy 40 - Lazio 33

Cuomo 65 - Collins 23
Paterson 40 - Collins 40
Levy 42 - Collins 26

Meanwhile, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), facing a possible challenge from former congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D), now has an upside-down favorable rating and trails former governor George Pataki (R) by double digits. In a primary matchup, Gillibrand leads Ford 41%-17%.

A former congresswoman, Gillibrand was appointed a year ago to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, yet she still remains unknown to more than a third of the state. Asked if they would vote to elect her or for someone else, 29% of voters said they'd choose her and 45% said someone else.

Senate
Gillibrand 38 - Pataki 51
Ford 32 - Pataki 54

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"If you are looking for an analogy for a Republican victory in Massachusetts, the best one for Democrats may well be the stock market crash of 1929. Come Tuesday night, you could have Democrats jumping out windows and off roofs ..." - Stuart Rothenberg, in is column this morning.

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David Brooks:

Many Democrats, as always, are caught in their insular liberal information loop. They think the polls are bad simply because the economy is bad. They tell each other health care is unpopular because the people aren't sophisticated enough to understand it. Some believe they can still pass health care even if their candidate, Martha Coakley, loses the Senate race in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

That, of course, would be political suicide. It would be the act of a party so arrogant, elitist and contemptuous of popular wisdom that it would not deserve to govern. Marie Antoinette would applaud, but voters would rage.

And, right on cue, Nancy Pelosi puts the cake in the oven, declaring that regardless of what happens in Massachusetts today, "we will have health care - one way or another."

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A poll conducted Sunday night for Politico by InsiderAdvantage shows Scott Brown leading Martha Coakley 52-43.

As one looks at the polls that have been released of late, there's a trend worth noting. Not only has Brown locked up his Republican base and taken a commanding lead among independent voters. But a growing number of Democrats seem to be shifting toward the Brown column. In this new survey, Brown wins Republicans 86-10 and independents 69-28. Among Democrats, Coakley's lead is just 71-24, meaning nearly one-in-four of those voters plans to cast a vote for the Republican.

Compare that to other recent surveys:

With word that the Obama operation is moving in to supplement Coakley's GOTV operation, there's a challenge for them beyond just the weather: find only those Democrats who plan to stick within their party tomorrow.

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Let me see if I have this right: there have been six polls of the Massachusetts Senate race released in the last 24 hours, five of which show Scott Brown with leads of 5 points, 7 points, 9 points, 10 points and 10 points, respectively. Only one poll shows the race tied. None of the polls show Martha Coakley with a lead.

How then, you might ask, can the Boston Globe justify characterizing the race as a "dead heat?"

I suppose if you were disingenuous enough to downplay and/or ignore the five polls showing Scott Brown with fairly sizable leads, then that headline wouldn't be false. Massively biased and misleading, yes, but technically accurate. And wouldn't you know, that's exactly what the author of the story does:

With the clock ticking inexorably towards Tuesday's election and a new poll showing them in a dead heat, Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown are crisscrossing the state today in a last-minute scramble for votes in a race that has drawn national attention.

It's not until five paragraphs later we learn that the poll the Globe is citing is from Daily Kos, along with a further bit of spin:

The poll, done for the liberal Daily Kos blog by Research 2000, found Brown and Coakley tied, 48-48, which would be consistent with a raft of other polls that have suggested that Brown, until recently a little-known state senator, has made an extraordinarily strong run against Coakley, the state's attorney general.

I'm sorry, but citing the most favorable poll by far for Coakley and suggesting that it is "consistent" with the other polls is such a blatant distortion of the current state of the race that the Globe should be ashamed of itself. That would assume, of course, that the Globe is interested in providing its readers with the truth as opposed to putting its thumb on the scale in favor of a preferred political candidate.

Then again, people who get their political news solely from the Boston Globe are probably surprised to hear the race is a  "dead heat" given that just eight days ago the Globe's own poll affirmed to readers that Martha Coakley was leading Scott Brown by 17 points while other pollsters had the race far closer including one firm, PPP, that showed Brown up a point.

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