A Market Shares poll conducted for the Chicago Tribune shows that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) are leading in their respective races for the U.S. Senate nominations in Illinois. But a significant share of voters in each primary remain undecided with just over a week until election day.

Primary Election Matchups
Giannoulias 34 (+3 vs. last poll, 12/2-8)
Jackson 19 (+2)
Hoffman 16 (+7)
Other 5 (-3)
Und 26 (-9)

Kirk 47 (+6)
Hughes 8 (+5)
Other 10 (unch)
Und 35 (-11)

National Democrats have been playing up supposed conservative unease with Kirk, who has a more centrist voting record that comes from representing a swing suburban district. Kirk has been targeted most notably for his vote in favor of the cap-and-trade legislation the House approved in 2009. But the Tribune notes:

More than half of GOP voters said they agreed with the tea party movement, including nearly 70 percent of those who describe themselves as very conservative. But that hasn't translated into support for Hughes. The survey found Kirk being supported by 48 percent of Republicans who said they backed the tea party movement while Hughes got only 10 percent support.

Favorable Ratings
Giannoulias 38 / 8
Jackson 22 / 3
Hoffman 19 / 3

Kirk 41 / 9
Hughes 10 / 2

The survey was conducted statewide from January 16-20. The Democratic sample was 601 likely voters, while the GOP sample was 592 likely voters. The margin of error in both is +/- 4%.

So today we got a glimpse of the new, populist Obama. He feels our pain. He will fight for us until his very last breath (even if he's fighting to pass policies the public doesn't like, apparently). He is going to get every dime of our money back from those evil banks on Wall Street (even though most have already paid back what they owe.)

The White House seems to think a pivot to populism will help the President politically. But it probably won't. Here's why: Obama isn't a "man of the people." Never has been. That isn't the image he ran on during the campaign, and it isn't why people voted for him. Even more to the point, it certainly wasn't how he governed during his first year in office.

Obama ran as a thoughtful, cool-headed, competent intellectual who was going to bring both parties together to develop and implement solutions to America's most serious problems.

But - and here's the rub - after a year of bailing out Wall Street and car makers, passing a stimulus that didn't produce any tangible results for Main Street (i.e. jobs), and focusing most of his energy in pushing a partisan health care bill through Congress using backroom deals with industries and individual Democratic Senators, huge swaths of the country have lost confidence in Obama.

They've lost confidence in his agenda, and they are no longer sold on the idea that he can deliver on his promise to produce bipartisan solutions to America's problems.

So a change in Obama's style is unlikely to suddenly alter public perceptions about the President or his agenda. Nor is new rhetoric likely to put him back "in touch" with the public  after a year of becoming detached from them - something he admitted in his interview with George Stephanopoulos earlier this week.

One of the things that was most likable about Barack Obama during the campaign was that he seemed exceedingly comfortable in his own skin. He was the smooth Constitutional Law professor from an elite university who projected a sense of knowledge, competence, and analytic pragmatism married to the lofty, eloquent rhetoric of hope. Put differently, candidate Obama was above running a populist campaign - which is why he struggled so mightily against Hillary Clinton with blue collar folks who cling to their God and guns.

Politicians try to reinvent themselves all the time, and some find success. But it only works if there's some credibility behind the shift - some truth in advertising, if you will. That's why its' hard to see the public buying into Obama's impersonation of William Jennings Bryan. It's simply not who he is.

Follow RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.

For the first time in 2012 polling, Public Policy Polling finds President Obama trailing a Republican challenger. Mike Huckabee (R) leads Obama, though it is by just 1 point, which is within the margin of error.

With a 46% job approval rating in the new survey, Obama holds a small lead over Mitt Romney, and slightly larger leads over Sarah Palin and David Petraeus.

Obama's 8-point lead over Palin was helped by the fact that 13% of 2008 John McCain voters chose the president over the former vice presidential nominee -- the only Republican to lose double-digit GOP support to him.

Obama 44 - Huckabee 45 - Und 11

Obama 49 - Palin 41 - Und 9

Obama 44 - Petraeus 34 - Und 21

Obama 44 - Romney 42 - Und 15

The survey was conducted Jan. 18-19 of 1,151 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Follow RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-Ark.) re-election campaign is running into some stiff headwinds. Once thought to be relatively safe, a new poll from Mason Dixon (625 RVs, 1/18-20, MoE +/- 4%) commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media shows that Lincoln trails two potential Republican foes, and scores just above 40 in matchups with others.

General Election Matchups
Baker 43 -- Lincoln 39 -- Und 18
Holt 43 -- Lincoln 37 -- Und 20
Lincoln 40 -- Coleman 39 -- Und 21
Lincoln 41 -- Reynolds 38 -- Und 21
Lincoln 43 -- Hendren 38 -- Und 19
Lincoln 41 -- Cox 38 -- Und 21

"If we stopped the game today and held the election even though nobody knows who all the Republicans are, I think she'd be hard-pressed to get 45 percent of the vote," Mason Dixon's J. Brad Coker tells the ANB.

Lincoln is also facing some potential primary challenges, from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Bob Johnson. She leads both potential matchups among a smaller sample (303 RVs, MoE +/- 6%)

Primary Election Matchups
Lincoln 52 -- Halter 34
Lincoln 63 -- Johnson 22

(Post updated to correct numbers in Holt-Lincoln matchup)

--
Follow RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.

Seeking to capitalize on Snarlen Arlin's blunder the other day, RNC Co-Chairman Jan Larimer released the following statement:

“Senator Specter's rude and arrogant comments yesterday were not only disrespectful to Congresswoman Bachmann, but demeaning to all women.  Senator Specter should immediately apologize to the Congresswoman and to all of his constituents for such disgraceful behavior.   Women should never be treated as second class citizens.  It's clear Senator Specter has spent too much time in Washington, and this November I am confident Pennsylvanians will choose a new direction.”

Krugman to House Democrats: shut your pie holes and get marching over the health care cliff.

Meanwhile, David Paul Kuhn talked to a number of top Dem strategists who urged the Congressional leadership to pull back on health care before they jeopardize their majorities - and potentially Obama's reelection.

Lastly, Mickey Kaus wonders when liberal juiceboxer Ezra Klein is going to denounce Congressman Raul Grijalva for being willing to "cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people" - the same loopy charge Klein leveled against Joe Lieberman a few weeks ago - because Grijalva says he won't vote for the Senate version of health care.  Don't hold your breath, Mickey.

Nothing bites like mockery.

Meghan McCain provides some trenchant analysis.

Sen. John McCain (R) has known from an early stage that he could face a tough primary in his bid for re-election this year, and acted on it. He already launched radio ads touting his effort to block President Obama's "extreme left wing crusade." And just this week, Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) recorded robocalls that went out to voters in Arizona.

Now, a Rasmussen poll (502 LVs, 1/20, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows the Maverick just over 50 percent in a potential matchup against former Rep. JD Hayworth -- not the best position for an incumbent to be, but an improvement over the dead heat Rasmussen found in November.

Primary Election Matchup
McCain 53 (+8 vs. last poll, 11/18)
Hayworth 31 (-12)
Simcox 4 (unch)
Und 8 (+1)

Hayworth has not entered the race yet, but been publicly flirting with it for some time. Meanwhile, McCain's camp announced this week that his former running mate, Sarah Palin, will campaign for him in late March.

Favorable Ratings
McCain 74 / 23
Hayworth 58 / 25
Simcox 28 / 23

--
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.

Former congressman Pat Toomey (R) leads his two potential Pennsyvlania Senate general election foes, a new Rasmussen survey finds (Jan. 18, 1000 LV, MoE +/- 3%). In the past month, Toomey doubled his lead over Sen. Arlen Specter, who's margin deficit is now larger than Rep. Joe Sestak's.

"The relatively unknown Toomey is seen as the populist outsider, and Specter could not be more of an example of a political elitist," Keyston College political scientist Jeff Brauer told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Salena Zito. "The other backlash is against the current health care approach, which is why Sestak is not catching Specter even though he is less of a political elitist."

Toomey 49 (+3 vs. last poll, Dec. 10)
Specter 40 (-2)
Und 8

Toomey 43 (-1 vs. last poll, Dec. 10)
Sestak 35 (-3)
Und 16

Toomey leads Specter by 1.5 points and Sestak by 7.0 points in the RCP Average.
--
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.