A new Quinnipiac poll (1,618 RVs, 1/20-24, MoE +/- 2.4%; GOP subsample of 673 RVs, MoE +/ 2.4%) out this morning shows former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) with the advantage over Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the Florida Senate Republican primary. It's the first poll to give Rubio an edge over Crist, who had been a heavy favorite in the race but has now is a top target of conservatives.

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio 47 (+12 vs. last poll, 10/21)
Crist 44 (-6)
Und 8 (-4)

Crist leads by just 2.4 percent in the RCP Average for the GOP primary, but the trend is bad news for the once-popular incumbent.

This same poll also finds that both Republicans would defeat Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.

General Election Matchups
Crist 48 -- Meek 36 -- Und 12
Rubio 44 -- Meek 35 -- Und 19

A remarkable statistic among Republican primary voters who say they support Rubio: only 20 percent say they would change their vote if they became convinced that only Crist could win the general election, while 74 percent say they'd support Rubio no matter what. By a 5-point margin, Republican voters say Rubio more than Crist shares their values.

Crist's job approval rating is at 50 percent today, down 9 points from October and from an all-time high of 73 percent in July 2007. Among Republicans, 62 percent approve of Crist's performance while 32 percent disapprove.

Favorable Ratings
Crist 52 / 36
Rubio 32 / 14
Meek 18 / 8

Quinnipiac finds Pres. Obama's approval rating is down 3 points since October, with 45 percent now approving of his performance and 49 percent disapproving.

James Fallows has an interesting link for what the Senate would look like if it were apportioned by population, from "fake is the new real."

As near as I can tell, the answer is that we'd have a Senate with an even greater Republican skew than the present Senate. California would get twelve Senate seats, but by confining LA and the greater San Francisco area to their own districts, which would have gone about 70% for Obama each, they create some pretty Republican districts. "Orange," "Mojave" and "San Joaquin" would probably be pretty strongly Republican (I'm less certain about San Joaquin -- a lot would depend on precisely where the boundary lines lay), and Coronado would be a swing district. In a good Republican year, California will generally give Democrats 2 Democrats out of 2. In a good Republican year, you'd get four Democrats and potentially eight Republicans here.

Besides Willamette and Olympia, I'm not sure any "state" west of the Mississippi would reliably -- or even potentially -- produce Democratic Senators; east of the Mississippi you're potentially looking at Everglades, Potomac, Chicago, North Coast, Detroit, New York, Jersey, Boston, Southern New England, maybe Long Island, Maybe N. New England and maybe Philly, the Delta, and Pamlico as sources for Democratic votes.

The dirty little secret is that (1) the Republicans' small state advantage in the Senate is overstated and (2) the Democrats' concentration in cities actually helps them quite a bit in the Senate. States like Illinois almost always produce two Democratic Senators because strong Democratic performance in Chicago will usually override decent Republican performance elsewhere; by breaking Chicago into its own Senate district, you get the two Senate seats Democrats get anyway and create two for the rest of Illinois.

Anyway, its a fun thought experiment, but I'm not sure it would produce the results Democrats want.

He apologized to Michele Bachmann.

If James Rosen's reporting is accurate that the Obama administration signed a waiver in order to award a no bid contract to a firm owned by a big Democratic donor to Barack Obama's campaign, the President will have no choice but to fire some people or watch another one of his signature campaign promises turned into a total sham.

In an email to Obama's grassroots army asking them to gather together for house parties to watch the upcoming State of the Union Address, former Obama campaign manager and newly rehired White House political strategist David Plouffe writes:

We've hit some serious bumps in the road recently in our march toward change. We always knew it would be difficult, but this past week has definitely been a hard one, for all of us.

But this movement didn't come so far without making it through some challenging times. It's at moments like these when we need you most. People are hurting. Our country is at a crossroads, and in communities like yours all across America we must all fight for the progress our families and businesses need to thrive.

The President's resolve has never been stronger to keep fighting for health insurance reform, for lasting job creation, and to rein in the big banks and fight the undue influence of lobbyists. Wednesday's speech will be a pivotal moment for us all to get on the same page and continue the fight together.[emphasis in the original]

Democrats' woes continue with the Delaware AG's decision not to seek his father's old Senate seat. More over at Politics Nation.

RCP's Sean Trende analyzes the 2010 Senate playing field.

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) leads Sen. Evan Bayh (D) by 3 points, according to a new Rasmussen poll (Jan. 21&24, 800 LV, MoE +/- 3.5%). Pence, the third ranking Republican in the House, is considering a Senate bid but hasn't indicated publicly which way he is leaning.

Bayh leads two other Republicans, ex-congressman John Hostettler and State Sen. Marlin Stutzman, but still polled below 50% -- not a good sign for an incumbent.

Bayh 44 - Pence 47 - Und 7

Bayh 44 - Hostettler 41 - Und 12

Bayh 45 - Stutzman 33 - Und 16

According to Gallup, the sixty-five point gap between Democrats who approve of the job Obama is doing as President (88%) and Republicans who approve of the job Obama is doing (23%) is the largest on record, shattering the previous mark of 52% set by Bill Clinton in 1993:

Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman continues to outpoll Nevada Sen. Harry Reid when matched up against potnetial Republican general election foes, according to a new Daily Kos/Research2000 poll (Jan. 18-20, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Goodman leads former state GOP chair Sue Lowden and Danny Tarnkanian, son of the famed UNLV basketball coach, while Reid trails both by an average of 10 points.

Reid's favorable rating is upside down (34% fav/55% unfav), as is President Obama's (45% fav/50% unfav). Other Democrats tested include Rep. Shelley Berkley and Secretary of State Ross Miller.

Reid 41 - Tarkanian 52 - Und 7

Reid 42 - Lowden 51 - Und 7

Goodman 44 - Tarkanian 41 - Und 15

Goodman 44 - Lowden 40 - Und 16

Berkley 40 - Tarkanian 46 - Und 14

Berkley 40 - Lowden 45 - Und 15

Miller 36 - Tarkanian 44 - Und 20

Miller 37 - Lowden 43 - Und 20