Gallup reports that 'conservatives' ended 2009 as the largest of the three self-identified ideological groups in America.  Those who call themselves 'conservative' jumped three points last year to 40%, matching the groups high water mark in the last 17 years that was reached in the years 2003 and 2004.

Those identifying themselves as "moderates" and "liberals" in 2009 declined one point to 36% and 21%, respectively.

As you can see from the chart below, the upward movement among those identifying themselves as "conservative" came almost exclusively from Independent voters:

This confirms what political observers have been saying for some time: in a highly polarized and closely divided electorate, the "center" - occupied by primarily Independent voters - rules the day. In 2006 and 2008 those voters swung heavily in the Democrats' favor.

But in 2009 they began a migration away from Democrats, which manifested itself in the November elections when Independents voted in big numbers for the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey.

Note to White House: now you're losing members of your own party over broken promises about transparency:

Rep. Joe Sestak blames Democratic leaders for the plunge in public support for overhauling the health care system, saying Wednesday they failed to defend proposals that helped carry the party to victories in 2008.

"They said it would be transparent. Why isn't it?" said Sestak, a Delaware County Democrat, in a meeting with Tribune-Review editors and reporters. "At times, I find the caucus is a real disappointment. We aren't transparent, not just to the public but at times to the members."

Another rough day for transparency at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Note to the White House: you know you're in trouble when you've lost Gloria Borger.

Meanwhile, Robert Gibbs got testy with reporters today who pressed him on Obama's promise to televise health care negotiations on C-SPAN. Gibbs flatly refused to answer the question and referred reporters to his response yesterday - before adding that the President is trying to get a bill on his desk "as quickly as possible."

For the record, Gibbs' non-responsive response yesterday to the question of whether Obama was meeting the standard of transparency he promised during the campaign was, "I do not believe the American people have lacked for information on what's in these bills - the political and policy arguments around different people's positions - I think that's been well documented."

So the question about Obama's C-SPAN promise remains unanswered. And Gibbs' response yesterday brings up a new question for the White House: if the American people aren't lacking any information about the content of the health care legislation, why is the President rushing through closed-door meetings to pass a piece of legislation on a party-line vote that a majority of the country disapproves of?

Four Republican opponents lead Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in potential general election matchups, according to a new Rasmussen survey. On top of trailing each Republican by at least 8 points and never reaching even 40% support, 55% say they hold an unfavorable opinion of the second-term senator.

Those tested against Lincoln include: State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren; State Sen. Gilbert Baker, a former state GOP chair; Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman; and Tom Cox, a Tea Party organizer.

Hendren 47 - Lincoln 39 - Und 10

Baker 51 - Lincoln 39 - Und 7

Coleman 48 - Lincoln 38 - Und 9

Cox 48 - Lincoln 38 - Und 9

Health care could be weighing down Lincoln, who supported Senate Democrats' reform bill in the Christmas Eve vote. The survey found just 35% of Arkansas voters support the proposal.

Former estimated rate of recidivism of Gitmo detainees from April report: 14%. New estimated rate of recidivism for Gitmo detainess based on latest government statistics: 20%.

Credit Public Policy Polling (D) with having these numbers ready: their new survey (522 RVs, 1/4-5, MoE +/- 4.3%) shows that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) starts with a strong lead over potential GOP foes in the Senate race. These numbers affirm the sentiment that Sen. Chris Dodd's (D) decision "to step aside and let someone else step up," as he said a short time ago in Connecticut, was the best one politically for Democrats

General Election Matchup
Blumenthal 60 -- McMahon 28 -- Und 12
Blumenthal 63 -- Schiff 23 -- Und 14
Blumenthal 59 -- Simmons 28 -- Und

By comparison, PPP found Dodd tied with McMahon (43-43), ahead of Schiff (44-37), but trailing Simmons (40-44). PPP, on the difference Blumenthal makes:

Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days.

Job Approval Ratings
Pres. Obama 54 / 38
Dodd 29 / 57

Favorable Ratings
Blumenthal 59 / 19
McMahon 26 / 29
Schiff 9 / 13
Simmons 27 / 24

According to Gallup's first full data set for 2010, Barack Obama starts his second year in office with the highest disapproval rating of any President since Eisenhower. Obama begins 2010 with 44% of the public disapproving of the job he's doing as president. That's four points higher than the next closest president (Reagan), six points higher than Bill Clinton, and 17 points higher than Jimmy Carter.

As you can see from Gallup's graphic below, Obama also begins his second year in office with the second worst job approval rating of any president in the last 56 years:

Things are getting testy. Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ripped her colleague Ben Nelson at a Kiwanis Club luncheon in Little Rock, according to the AP:

U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln on Tuesday said a political deal that benefits Nebraska and may have clinched a lawmaker's support for health care legislation should be removed from the bill.

The Democratic senator from Arkansas said she was disappointed about a provision in the Senate's health care bill that will require the federal government to permanently pay the entire cost of Medicaid expansion in Nebraska, while only paying the costs of expansion in the other 49 states for three years.

Lincoln told the group that "The people of Arkansas didn't send me to Washington to be a horse trader."

First the good news for Republicans: Byron Dorgan has decided to retire and popular Governor John Hoeven has decided to run for his Senate seat. This turned a tough race into a likely-to-safe Republican pickup. It also, for a brief moment, put together a plausible (though by no means likely) scenario for shared GOP control of the Senate beginning in 2011.

But then Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal jumped in. This is something of the reverse of the North Dakota race, and this race has quickly entered "Likely-to-Safe Democrat" territory. Even though the country is uneasy and presently aligned against Democrats, Blumenthal is one of the most popular politicians in this blue sate. Moreover, Attorneys General are uniquely well positioned to run for office -- they spend their days toughening child support laws rather than taking a million stands on controversial issues like state legislators. This is probably doubly true for Democrats, as it gives them a "daddy issue" to run on (and also to the extent Democrats still need inoculation against the "soft on crime" label).

More bad news followed at the gubernatorial level in Colorado. Incumbent Bill Ritter, who had Bush-like approval ratings, announced that he would retire. Andrew Romanoff switched may switch to the governor's race. This was would be a double whammy for Republicans, as Romanoff's switch cleared would clear the field for Senator Michael Bennet for his primary election, and it removed would remove a damaged incumbent and replaced it with something of a fresh face. This might not switch the race to a Democratic retention, but given Ritter's polling numbers, it probably would helped the Democrats out.  Other solid Democratic contenders exist, such as Mayor Hickenlooper and the Salazar brothers. [NOTE: Bad info on Romanoff.  My apologies]

Finally, in Michigan, Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the Michigan Governor's race. Cherry's polling numbers had been abysmal against his potential GOP opponents, and his ties to a deeply unpopular administration, which has presided over an 8-year recession, were probably too much for him to overcome. A number of Democrats will probably get into the race. It's still a tough retention, but probably at least marginally easier with Cherry out of the way.

But even though the individual news items were bad for Republicans, the fact remains that it is Democrats who feel the need to abandon their races, not Republicans. That tells you all that you need to know about the overall political environment, and it isn't a good sign for those Democrats who want to stay and fight.

"On my first day back at work after vacation, the political news from Washington hit me like a cold dead fish in the face." - Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass, reacting to rumors that Rahm Emanuel might run for Mayor of Chicago.