Last Tuesday was, no doubt, a bad day for the Republican Party.  But I think it is important to keep this somewhat in perspective.  It was a bad day, but in the big picture, it reveals real problems for the Democrats.

For example, Byron Dorgan's retirement has been dismissed because Dorgan was polling poorly against John Hoeven.  But last February, Dorgan was crushing Hoeven, 57%-35%.

Similarly, Chris Dodd's retirement certainly improves the Democrats' chances of holding the seat.  Dodd had ethical problems that weighed him down; Blumenthal won't have that problem.  But in 2006 and 2008, Democrats with ethical problems were re-elected, sometimes handily.  Witness Rod Blagojevich's 10-point win in Illinois, or Jim Doyle's Wisconsin win.

Bill Ritter's numbers were in the toilet.  But four years ago, Ritter won 56%-41%.  His potential replacements are still trailing Scott McInnis.

So Republicans definitely took a step back on Tuesday.  But it's also true they've taken about twenty steps forward in the past year.

A plurality of Democratic operatives say Mitt Romney would be the GOP's strongest nominee in the 2012 presidential contest, while Sarah Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee, barely makes the top 10.

In National Journal's first polling of GOP insiders on the 2012 race, 29 percent say Romney is the strongest candidate. He's followed by South Dakota Sen. John Thune (15%), Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (13%), Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (11%), Newt Gingrich (6%), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (5%), Jeb Bush (5%).

Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Palin round out the top 10 with 3 percent each. Also receiving votes were Dick Cheney, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Cantor, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Colin Powell, Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum.

Romney also holds a wide lead when GOP operatives were asked who they think will win the nomination. Pawlenty finished a distant second, followed by Thune, Barbour, Daniels and Palin.

NJ's Jim Barnes, who runs the poll, notes that "although the Insiders Poll doesn't have a terrific record of quickly sorting out who will actually win a nomination, it helps stake out the playing field -- and identify the serious players."

It took him about two weeks, but he finally got the notes just right.

From Page Six:

DC clairvoyants say Rahm Emanuel will leave as President Obama's chief-of-staff in the not-too-distant future. Though once a congressman himself, Emanuel is said to be frustrated with lawmakers who won't bend to his will. And his temper -- similar to the Ari Gold-like eruptions of his super-agent brother, Ari Emanuel, in Hollywood -- has not been well received in some quarters.

First Gloria Borger, now Jack Cafferty? Goodness gracious. If they keep this up the White House will have to declare war on them soon.

"This isn't the political climate in which one would defend, even tacitly, public policy made beyond closed doors...." - Mark Ambinder of The Atlantic who was, ironically enough, talking about the Fed and NOT referring to health care policy.

A second poll in two days shows Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) way ahead of his potential Republican opponents in the race for Senate. Rasmussen's survey shows him leading former Rep. Rob Simmons by 23 points, former WWE CEO Linda McMahon by 24 points and businessman Peter Schiff by 36 points.

Blumenthal 56 - Simmons 33 - Und 7

Blumenthal 58 - McMahon 34 - Und 5

Blumenthal 60 - Schiff 24 - Und 10

Blumenthal held similar leads in a PPP poll released yesterday, shortly after Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) announced he would not seek re-election.

We reported Tuesday after word leaked of Bill Ritter's decision to retire that Democrats were already speaking to Interior Secretary Ken Salazar about leaving the Obama Cabinet to run for governor in Colorado. Today, the Denver Post reports that Salazar has been given permission, reluctantly, from the White House to leave his post and run, if he so chooses.

But a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 1/6, MoE +/- 4.5%) released today shows that Salazar, a former state attorney general and U.S. Senator, is no by no means the strongest candidate Democrats could field against former Rep. Scott McInnis, the likely GOP nominee.

General Election Matchups
McInnis 47 -- Salazar 41 -- Und 9
McInnis 47 -- Romanoff 37 -- Und 11
McInnis 45 -- Hickenlooper 42 -- Und 8

John Hickenlooper, the popular mayor of Denver, said at a press conference that he was considering the race, but that if Salazar runs, he'd "probably be his first volunteer." Andrew Romanoff, the former state House Speaker, is still at this point challenging fellow Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet, appointed by Ritter to Salazar's old seat.

Favorable Ratings
McInnis 60 / 26
Salazar 52 / 45
Hickenlooper 57 / 32
Romanoff 37 / 43

President Obama has a 45 percent job approval rating in Colorado, while 54 percent disapprove. Ritter's approval split is fairly similar, 44 / 52.

UPDATE: Chris Cillizza reports that Salazar will stay in the Cabinet, and announce he's backing Hickenlooper for the gubernatorial race.

PPP (D) released some more data from its polling in Connecticut (522 RVs, 1/4-5, MoE +/- 4.3%), showing a precipitous drop in Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) approval rating. It now stands at just 25 percent, with 67 percent disapproving. By comparison, that's lower than even Chris Dodd's showing at 29 percent approval.

Digging deeper, PPP finds that 81 percent of Democrats disapprove of Lieberman. Among Republicans, 39 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove; among indies the split is 32 / 61. Lieberman is up again in 2012; Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was thought to be a potential challenger, but he's now running for Dodd's seat. PPP speculates, based on the pre-Dodd announcement polling, that Rep. Chris Murphy (D) could step up.

Connecticut voters support the health care legislation narrowly, 47 percent to 43 percent. Only 19 percent support how Lieberman handled the legislation, while 68 percent oppose.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary in Illinois just took a decidedly negative turn. Normally, in a blue state like Illinois you'd expect criticism from a challenger in a Democratic primary to be something along the lines of "so and so is not fighting hard enough for Democratic values." Instead, Democratic challenger Dan Hynes is savaging incumbent Pat Quinn for being a tax-raising sissy who's soft on crime. Watch: