Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (D) is now polling at 30% against former congressman Pat Toomey (R) in a general election matchup and against Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, according to a new Franklin & Marshall survey (Jan. 18-24, 993 RV, MoE +/- 3.1%). While Toomey and Sestak remain largely unknown to the statewide electorate, Specter, running for his sixth term, has just a 35% favorable rating, and 34% think he's doing a good job as senator.

Democratic Primary
Specter 30
Sestak 13
Und 50

Specter leads Sestak by 20.3 points in the RCP Average

General Election
Toomey is tied with Specter among registered voters but jumps out to a significant lead among those considered likely to vote in November:
Registered Voters
Toomey 30
Specter 30
Und 35

Likely Voters
Toomey 45
Specter 31
Undecided

Toomey leads by 7.7 points in the RCP Average

We see the same dynamic in a Toomey vs. Sestak match up:
Registered Voters
Toomey 28
Sestak 16
Und 51

Likely Voters
Toomey 41
Sestak 19
Und 37

Toomey leads Sestak by 11.7 points in the RCP Average

Meanwhile, the governor's race is still up in the air, as seven-in-10 Democrats and Republicans don't know yet who they will vote for in the May 18 primary. However, with Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) now out of the race, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is expected to win the GOP primary.

Democrats
Dan Onorato 10
Jack Wagner 4
Chris Doherty 4
Joe Hoeffel 4
Tom Knox 2
Other 4
Undecided 72

Republicans
Tom Corbett 23
Sam Rohrer 5
Other 3
Undecided 69

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