A new Quinnipiac poll (1,618 RVs, 1/20-24, MoE +/- 2.4%; GOP subsample of 673 RVs, MoE +/ 2.4%) out this morning shows former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) with the advantage over Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the Florida Senate Republican primary. It's the first poll to give Rubio an edge over Crist, who had been a heavy favorite in the race but has now is a top target of conservatives.

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio 47 (+12 vs. last poll, 10/21)
Crist 44 (-6)
Und 8 (-4)

Crist leads by just 2.4 percent in the RCP Average for the GOP primary, but the trend is bad news for the once-popular incumbent.

This same poll also finds that both Republicans would defeat Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.

General Election Matchups
Crist 48 -- Meek 36 -- Und 12
Rubio 44 -- Meek 35 -- Und 19

A remarkable statistic among Republican primary voters who say they support Rubio: only 20 percent say they would change their vote if they became convinced that only Crist could win the general election, while 74 percent say they'd support Rubio no matter what. By a 5-point margin, Republican voters say Rubio more than Crist shares their values.

Crist's job approval rating is at 50 percent today, down 9 points from October and from an all-time high of 73 percent in July 2007. Among Republicans, 62 percent approve of Crist's performance while 32 percent disapprove.

Favorable Ratings
Crist 52 / 36
Rubio 32 / 14
Meek 18 / 8

Quinnipiac finds Pres. Obama's approval rating is down 3 points since October, with 45 percent now approving of his performance and 49 percent disapproving.

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