As Democrats brace for a humbling election night in Massachusetts, a glimmer of hope in President Obama's home state: a new Mason Dixon poll (800 RVs, 1/8-12, MoE +/- 3.5%) shows the party has a legitimate chance of winning back the governor's office after an 8-year absence.

General Election Matchup
Abercrombie (D) 43 -- Aiona (R) 34 -- Und 23
Hannemann (D) 41 -- Aiona (R) 35 -- Und 24

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) has formally entered the race, and is expected to resign his House seat soon. Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) is looking to succeed Gov. Linda Lingle (R), who is the state's second GOP governor and first in 40 years. Mufi Hannemann, mayor of Honolulu, has not yet made his plans official.

In the race for Abercrombie's soon-to-be-vacant House seat (sample 403 RVs, MoE +/- 5%), both former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) lead GOP hopeful Charles Djou in separate matchups. But Abercrombie's resignation would trigger a winner-take-all special election that all three candidates would likely contest, giving the GOP an opening as the Democratic vote would be divided.

Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------