A new Public Policy Polling survey out Sunday night (1,231 LVs, 1/16-17, MoE +/- 2.8%) shows state Sen. Scott Brown (R) holding on to a lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) ahead of Tuesday's special election for Senate in Massachusetts.

Special Election Matchup
Brown (R) 51 (+3 vs. last poll, 1/7-9)
Coakley (D) 46 (-1)
Und 4 (-2)

Some troubling signs for Democrats: one-in-five Obama voters now say they'll back the Republican nominee. Brown's supporters are also more enthusiastic about their vote, with 4-of-5 saying they're "very excited" about voting Tuesday, compared to only 3-of-5 of Coakley voters saying the same.

On top of that it's Coakley who saw a greater drop in favorability this week, when Democrats thought their onslaught would bring down Brown's strong numbers. His favorable number dropped just one point, from 57 to 56 percent, while Coakley's dipped from 50 to 44 percent.

PPP also points out: "The likely electorate for Tuesday's election continues to express skepticism about the Democratic health care plan with 48% saying they're opposed to 40% who support it. President Obama's approval stands at 44/43."

Democrats had hoped that the final deluge of attention on the race from their surrogates, including President Obama himself today, has slowed or stopped the Brown surge.

There's been a raft of polling out from various outfits all week, some more trusted than others. But in this final weekend, several have shown Brown with leads outside the margin of error. We expect another survey Monday from Research 2000, and perhaps continued leaks from the campaigns' internal numbers.

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