A poll conducted Sunday night for Politico by InsiderAdvantage shows Scott Brown leading Martha Coakley 52-43.

As one looks at the polls that have been released of late, there's a trend worth noting. Not only has Brown locked up his Republican base and taken a commanding lead among independent voters. But a growing number of Democrats seem to be shifting toward the Brown column. In this new survey, Brown wins Republicans 86-10 and independents 69-28. Among Democrats, Coakley's lead is just 71-24, meaning nearly one-in-four of those voters plans to cast a vote for the Republican.

Compare that to other recent surveys:

With word that the Obama operation is moving in to supplement Coakley's GOTV operation, there's a challenge for them beyond just the weather: find only those Democrats who plan to stick within their party tomorrow.

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