New Hampshire, like many states with competitive Senate contests, includes a tough GOP primary that won't be resolved until September. But a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 1/12, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds that one candidate in that field -- former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte -- looks to be the party's best shot at holding Judd Gregg's Senate seat in a race against U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

General Election Matchups
Ayotte 49 -- Hodes 40 -- Und 8
Hodes 45 -- Lamontagne 38 -- Und 11
Hodes 43 -- Binnie 37 -- Und 15

Ayotte led Hodes 46-38 in a September Rasmussen poll. She leads Hodes by 7 in the RCP Average.

It's notable that Hodes caps out at 45 percent, a possible sign that Democrats' long win streak in the state since 2004 is in danger of ending. Aside from Gregg's re-election against a 94-year-old opponent, since 2004 Democrats have carried the state twice in presidential races, won and then held the governorship three times, and seen the three remaining Republicans in Washington ousted.

President Obama remains relatively popular, with 52 percent approving of his job performance and 47 percent disapproving. Gov. John Lynch (D), who may seek a 4th term this fall, also fares well considering the challenges he and other state leaders are facing, with a 58 percent approval rating. On health care, 46 percent support the Democratic plan while 52 percent oppose it, including 44 percent who oppose it strongly.

Favorable Ratings
Ayotte 60 / 21
Hodes 49 / 43
Lamontagne 38 / 35
Binnie 34 / 29

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