A Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday night showed a potential upset in the making, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown (R) leading Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) in the Massachusetts Senator special election.

Now, a survey from the University of New Hampshire in Sunday's Boston Globe (554 LVs, 1/2-6, MoE +/- 4.2%) shows a much safer result for Democrats, with Coakley ahead by double digits.

Special Election Matchup (No Leaners)
Coakley 50
Brown 35
Und 9

There is this caveat, from the Globe story:

Although the Senate race electorate is fairly firm in its choices - 61 percent say they have definitely decided whom they will support, and 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate - special elections can remain volatile until the last minute. Turnout is also highly unpredictable in an election that follows a holiday and could be affected by winter weather.

Coakley's lead is 53-36 when you include voters who are leaning toward one candidate or another. But in a special election, these voters are considered less likely to turnout. In the original sample, Brown trails by just 1 point among independent voters, 41-40 percent.

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