Last Tuesday was, no doubt, a bad day for the Republican Party.  But I think it is important to keep this somewhat in perspective.  It was a bad day, but in the big picture, it reveals real problems for the Democrats.

For example, Byron Dorgan's retirement has been dismissed because Dorgan was polling poorly against John Hoeven.  But last February, Dorgan was crushing Hoeven, 57%-35%.

Similarly, Chris Dodd's retirement certainly improves the Democrats' chances of holding the seat.  Dodd had ethical problems that weighed him down; Blumenthal won't have that problem.  But in 2006 and 2008, Democrats with ethical problems were re-elected, sometimes handily.  Witness Rod Blagojevich's 10-point win in Illinois, or Jim Doyle's Wisconsin win.

Bill Ritter's numbers were in the toilet.  But four years ago, Ritter won 56%-41%.  His potential replacements are still trailing Scott McInnis.

So Republicans definitely took a step back on Tuesday.  But it's also true they've taken about twenty steps forward in the past year.

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