As Tom noted, Senator Byron Dorgan announced his retirement last night. I have four additional thoughts:

(1) What set off this announcement? This announcement came out of the blue; I hadn't heard any retirement rumors about Dorgan at all. Obviously there had been some bad polling for Dorgan right before Christmas , but it also looked like Governor Hoeven might not be running. Did he get wind that Hoeven was running? Did he get an earful from constituents over the break? In the wake of his vote for the healthcare bill, did his numbers against no-name opponents tank (even before the vote, he was only at 52% against perennial candidate Duane Sand).

Obviously only Dorgan knows the answer to this, but if it is the latter, I'd be very interested in seeing polling for Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, and even Patty Murray.

(2) This sets up a very likely Senate pickup for Republicans, and is the Senate seat most likely to flip. This is true whether or not Hoeven runs. Democrats have a few high profile statewide candidates: Congressman Earl Pomeroy, Superintendent of Public Instruction Wayne Sanstead, and State Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson Doug Goehring. But Dorgan has spent forty years cultivating a relationship with North Dakotans, and again, he was struggling against "Duane Sand." It's hard to imagine any of these Democrats, with the possible exception of Pomeroy (who is rumored to be losing to "other" in polling ) doing any better than Dorgan was, especially since Republicans are almost guaranteed to produce a high quality candidate. Which brings us to:

(3) If Hoeven doesn't run, expect a competitive Republican primary. Senate seats in North Dakota come open only once in a blue moon: Dorgan's seat has only been open twice since 1944. With seven statewide officeholders in addition to Hoeven, expect all hands to come on deck for the opportunity to acquire what should be a fairly safe seat. (UPDATE: Looks like Hoeven is running.)

(4) If a Republican wins, he (or she) would be the first Republican to serve in Congress from North Dakota since 1986. That is amazing.

[Note: I have been informed that Roger Johnson resigned last summer to become President of the National Farm Bureau.  Republican Doug Goehring is the current Ag Commissioner.]

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