First the good news for Republicans: Byron Dorgan has decided to retire and popular Governor John Hoeven has decided to run for his Senate seat. This turned a tough race into a likely-to-safe Republican pickup. It also, for a brief moment, put together a plausible (though by no means likely) scenario for shared GOP control of the Senate beginning in 2011.

But then Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal jumped in. This is something of the reverse of the North Dakota race, and this race has quickly entered "Likely-to-Safe Democrat" territory. Even though the country is uneasy and presently aligned against Democrats, Blumenthal is one of the most popular politicians in this blue sate. Moreover, Attorneys General are uniquely well positioned to run for office -- they spend their days toughening child support laws rather than taking a million stands on controversial issues like state legislators. This is probably doubly true for Democrats, as it gives them a "daddy issue" to run on (and also to the extent Democrats still need inoculation against the "soft on crime" label).

More bad news followed at the gubernatorial level in Colorado. Incumbent Bill Ritter, who had Bush-like approval ratings, announced that he would retire. Andrew Romanoff switched may switch to the governor's race. This was would be a double whammy for Republicans, as Romanoff's switch cleared would clear the field for Senator Michael Bennet for his primary election, and it removed would remove a damaged incumbent and replaced it with something of a fresh face. This might not switch the race to a Democratic retention, but given Ritter's polling numbers, it probably would helped the Democrats out.  Other solid Democratic contenders exist, such as Mayor Hickenlooper and the Salazar brothers. [NOTE: Bad info on Romanoff.  My apologies]

Finally, in Michigan, Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the Michigan Governor's race. Cherry's polling numbers had been abysmal against his potential GOP opponents, and his ties to a deeply unpopular administration, which has presided over an 8-year recession, were probably too much for him to overcome. A number of Democrats will probably get into the race. It's still a tough retention, but probably at least marginally easier with Cherry out of the way.

But even though the individual news items were bad for Republicans, the fact remains that it is Democrats who feel the need to abandon their races, not Republicans. That tells you all that you need to know about the overall political environment, and it isn't a good sign for those Democrats who want to stay and fight.

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