Majority Whip Dick Durbin said yesterday that the Democrats are "moving toward 60" votes for health care in the Senate. "We think we will have it by next week." But is this a bit of false bravado, or can Durbin really get there?

Peter Suderman at Reason isn't convinced. Neither is Patricia Murphy at Politics Daily who writes that "despite yesterday's progress, the math for Harry Reid to get to 60 looks as tough as ever."

The issues are these:

Joe Lieberman appears to be tentatively on board, but neither he nor anyone else in the Senate has seen the actual language in the bill yet.

Ben Nelson is on the fence and may still balk over the cost and/or the abortion issue.

Harry Reid is now feeling push back on his left, with Howard Dean bringing out the heavy artillery this morning on GMA saying that the Senate bill now represents a "'bigger bailout for the insurance industry than AIG." Roland Burris also went public yesterday saying he will not vote for a bill that does not contain a public option. If a major liberal player in the Senate like Russ Feingold or Bernie Sanders takes a similar attitude toward the bill and jump ship the entire thing could unravel.

Republican Susan Collins of Maine said yesterday she will vote against the new stripped down version of the bill because of concerns about cost. That leaves Olympia Snowe as the only other possible Republican vote that appears to be winnable for Reid, and reading the tea leaves she's probably more than a 50/50 bet to vote against the bill.

Add it all up and it appears as if Dick Durbin and Harry Reid are still at least a vote or two short of 60.  How they get to the magic number by "next week" is anyone's guess.

Is Helicopter Ben.

Big news in the Florida Senate contest: a new Rasmussen survey (431 LVs, 12/14, MoE +/- 5%) shows that the insurgent Marco Rubio is now tied with Gov. Charlie Crist.

Primary Election Matchup
Crist 43 (-6 vs. last poll, 10/19)
Rubio 43 (+8)
Und 9 (-3)

Crist led 53-31 in an August survey; his lead in the RCP Average is down to 8.4.

Rubio is viewed very favorably by a whopping one-third of these primary voters, compared to 19 percent for Crist. One-in-five voters was unsure, meaning there is still some room to grow.

Favorable Ratings
Rubio 64 / 15
Crist 61 / 38

The August 2010 primary is closed only to registered Republicans, which spells trouble for Crist as he's struggled to define himself as a true conservative. Rasmussen:

Fifty-six percent (56%) of likely GOP Primary voters approve of Crist's performance as governor. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove of the job he is doing. These numbers are virtually unchanged from October and don't represent particularly strong support by voters for a governor from their own party. Only 11% Strongly Approve while 15% Strongly Disapprove.

New survey by ABC News/Washington Post shows President Obama's overall job approval rating has slipped a net of 10 points in the last month and now rests at an all time low of 50%. Overall, Obama's job approval now stands at 48.7% in the RCP National Average.

According to the ABC/WP poll, Obama has suffered a decline in support of his handling of a number of specific issues over the last month: -5 points on unemployment, the economy, and the budget deficit; and -3 points on health care and his duties as Commander in Chief.

Economy: 46% approve (-5 vs. last Nov poll), 52% disapprove (+5)
Health Care: 44 (-3) / 53 (+4)
Budget Deficit: 37 (-5) / 56 (+3)
Duties as Commander in Chief: 54 (-3) / 43 (+6)
Unemployment: 47 (-5) / 48 (+6)

President Obama did manage to improve his standing on Afghanistan, gaining seven points of approval of his handling of the situation this month versus last month.

Afghanistan: 52 (+7) / 44 (-4)

President Obama continued to lose voters' trust on his ability to handle the issue of health care. Though he still leads the Republican question on the issue of who voters trust more to deal with health care, the gap has narrowed to just seven points, 46 to 39. Six months ago Obama held a 28-point edge over Republicans on the same question, 55 to 27.

Meanwhile, public support for Obama and the Democrats' health care plans continues to dwindle.  In the current survey 44% say they "support the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)" while 51% say they oppose.

Those who oppose health care "strongly" (40%) nearly outnumber the total number who support it.

Fifty-three percent over voters say if the plan is passed their own health care will cost more; another 55% say the overall cost of the system will increase; and just 37% believe the changes proposed in the legislation will result in improved quality of care.

Sixty-six percent believe the proposed health care reform will increase the federal budget deficit.

When Joe Lieberman ran against challenger Ned Lamont in Connecticut's 2006 Democratic senatorial primary race, the incumbent senator said that no one was more for health-care reform than he. Democrats chose Lamont, at which point Lieberman ran as an "Independent Democrat," but also as a Republican hero, due to his support of the Iraq War. Lieberman won, thanks to independents, Republicans and some Democrats who remembered him back when.

"I get tired of answering questions about Joe Lieberman," Lamont told me today, "because he so delights in having everybody talking about him."  But Lamont recalled Lieberman's liberal-minded campaign against him on health care. "He was a vocal supporter of the Medicare buy-in," a proposal Lieberman now says would have him voting with Republicans against the Democrats' health-care bill.

Three months ago, Lieberman told editors at the Connecticut Post that he would go for a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured starting at age 55 -- if Democrats got rid of the public option. Democrats proposed replacing the public option with the buy-in. Lieberman immediately did a 180, saying he'd vote against that, too.

Lamont, who's considering a run for Connecticut governor, says he wants to look forward and not back on that contentious 2006 race. He did say, however, "I've had hundreds of emails from folks who wish they had a second chance."

www.fromaharrop.com

Pentecostal televangelist Oral Roberts is dead at 91, a Tulsa TV station reports.

Ahem.

A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey warns that Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) is "facing her toughest contest for re-election" since she first won the seat in 2004, and it's the unpopularity of national Democrats weighing her down.

General Election Matchups
Herseth Sandlin 46 -- Nelson 39 --Und 15
Herseth Sandlin 52 -- Curd 31 -- Und 17

Twenty-five percent of South Dakotans support the health care bill passed in the House last month, while 59 percent oppose it. Herseth Sandlin voted against that bill, as did 38 other Democrats. But, PPP's Debnam says, "she can't completely separate herself from the unpopularity of her national party in South Dakota and that means she could have a tough fight for reelection."

Obama Job Approval: 41 / 52
Congressional Democrats Job Approval: 28 / 60
Congressional Republicans Job Approval: 31 / 51
Herseth Sandlin Job Approval: 49 / 38

State Rep. Blake Curd (R) has a 6 / 13 fav/unfav rating, while Secretary of State Chris Nelson's split is 29 / 12.

The automated telephone survey was conducted December 10-13, surveying 702 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%.

New York voters are beginning to lighten up on Gov. David Paterson (D), whose favorable rating jumped to 38% this month after being sub-30% since May, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Likewise, a new Siena survey finds Paterson's favorable rating at 36% -- the highest point since July.

However, Democrats don't like Paterson enough to improve his standing against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who continues to lead Paterson by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary in both polls. And Siena finds 65% say they would prefer someone else over Paterson to serve as governor after the 2010 election.

New York Governor's Race
Quinnipiac
Democratic Primary
Paterson 23 (+4 vs. last poll, Oct. 15)
Cuomo 60 (-1)
Und 16 (-1)

General Election
Paterson 41 - Lazio 37 - Und 16
Cuomo 62 - Lazio 22 - Und 14

Siena
Democratic Primary
Cuomo 67 (-8 vs. last poll, Nov.)
Paterson 23 (+7)
Und 10 (+2)

General Election
Paterson 42 - Lazio 40 - Und 18
Cuomo 68 - Lazio 22 - Und 10

In the race for the U.S. Senate seat in New York, recent reports say former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. may be contemplating a run against appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), whom around half of voters in both polls say they still don't know enough about to form an opinion.

Also said to be mulling a bid is Bill Thompson, who recently lost the New York mayoral race. Both polls find Thompson to be competitive in the Democratic primary, and the Quinnipiac poll even has Thompson in the lead. However, Rudy Giuliani leads both Democrats in potential general election matchups.

New York Senate Race
Quinnipiac
Democratic Primary
Thompson 41
Gillibrand 28
Und 28

General Election
Giuliani 50 - Gillibrand 40 - Und 8

Giuliani 52 - Thompson 36 - Und 9

Siena
Democratic Primary
Gillibrand 34
Thompson 23
Ford 7
Tasini 3
Und 35

General Election
Giuliani 49 - Gillibrand 42
Giuliani 56 - Thompson 34
Gillibrand 46 - Pataki 43
Gillibrand 52 - Blakeman 22
Pataki 49 - Thompson 36
Thompson 40 - Blakeman 23

An interesting follow up to the "good, solid B plus" grade our President gave himself for his first year in office. As it turns out, back in August as part of its special coverage of Obama's "Second Hundred Days", CNN asked its viewers to give the Obama administration grades on a number of issues.

Here is how the American public graded the Obama administration:

Handling of the Economy = C-
Handling of Health Care = D
Handling of Foreign Affairs = C

As for the grade the public gave President Obama himself? C-.

Not exactly the kind of report card kids like to bring home to their parents.

For the record, President Obama's job approval rating in early August after his second hundred days was 54% and his disapproval rating was 40%.

Four months later with a job approval rating of only 48% and a disapproval rating of 45%, it's awfully hard to imagine the public thinks President Obama deserves a higher grade than they gave him in August.

BONUS: Here is Wolf Blitzer grilling White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs back in August on why the public graded the administration so poorly on health care and the economy and what Gibbs would grade their handling of those issues. Hint: it's not as high of a grade as the president gave himself on Oprah.