For the first time in more than two and a half years, a majority of the American public no longer believes global warming is a "proven fact" that is mostly caused by man, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research.

Only 45% of those surveyed agreed with the statement that "Global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by emissions from cars and industrial facilities such as power plants and factories." That number is down from 54% who agreed with the statement in June of last year and in May of 2007.

Meanwhile, the number of people who agreed with the statement that "Global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven" jumped to 31% in the current survey, up eight points from June 2008.

Twenty-three percent believe that "Global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by natural changes that have nothing to do with emissions from cars and industrial facilities." The number agree with this statement has remained relatively constant over the past two and half years.

The poll also found a decline in the number of people believing the United States should make unilateral emissions cuts to help curb global warming. Fifty-eight percent said the US should "reduce emissions of carbondioxide and other gases that may contribute toglobal warming even if it does so by itself." While a solid majority, that represents an 8-point decline from an identical question asked in October 2007.

Conversely, over the same time period the number of people agreeing with the statement that "The United States should not reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases regardless of what other countries do" jumped 9 points to 24%.

Seventeen percent believe we should only reduce our emissions if other countries do so as well. Two years ago that number was sixteen percent.

A day after showing President Obama posting an all time low job approval rating of 47% and an all time hig disapproval rating of 46%, today Gallup shows Obama bouncing back to 50% approval and 45% disapproval. That is back-to-back four point swings in Gallup's tracking poll which is a 3- day rolling average.

Overall, the updated RCP Average shows Obama's approval rating at 48.6% and his disapproval rating at 45.3%.

Marist is out with a new national survey registered voters showing President Obama's job approval sinking to just 46%. A nearly equal number (44%), now disapprove of the job Obama is doing.

As with other polls we've seen, this represents a fairly significant downward trend for Obama over the last few weeks. In Marist's last survey, conducted October 7-12, Obama's approval rating stood at 53% while his disapproval was at 41%.

According to Marist, Obama's slide is bipartisan: his support among Democrats between October and December has dropped from 84% to 77%, while among Republicans he's declined from 21% approval to just 12%. Independents are farily evenly divided in the current survey with 41% approving and 44% disapproving of Obama.

A related question shows the discontent with Obama among his own party. Only 58% of Democrats say President Obama has "met their expectations" during his first year in office, while one in five Democrats believe he has "missed the mark."

A majority (51%) of registered voters in the Marist Poll now dispprove of Obama's handling of the economy, while 45% approve.

Lastly, on Afghanistan, 47% approve of the way Obama is hanlding the issue, while 43% disapprove.

All partisans have attended the "party of no" —or aligned with it, more accurately.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer reached for the old attack on Monday. He railed against Republicans as the "party of no," as my colleague, Kyle Trygstad, records in an article today. In a 30-minute address to the Center for American Progress, Hoyer said:

One of our two great parties is now an organization committed to an unprecedented level of lockstep opposition to the president … A 'party of no,' whose political strategy is an investment in failure for our country and paralysis for its institutions.

This year, many a Democrat has tossed the "obstructionist" grenade. And many a Republican has shrugged.

But, lest we forget, Republicans once decried the "Party of No" as a no no. And Democrats have too been in on the party. Including, that is, Hoyer's boss Nancy Pelosi.

In June 2005, I wrote an article for Salon headlined, “Just say no.” I interviewed Pelosi for the story. An excerpt:

[Democrats will] "absolutely" run on their refusal to capitulate to Republican policies, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., declared in an interview. But compared with the Republicans of 1994, she said, "We have a stronger case."

The story's lede recounted 1994:

Half a century ago, Republican Sen. Robert Taft said the duty of the opposition was to oppose. Republicans were arguing the same line in 1994. Two months before the midterm elections that year, a bitter game of legislative chicken had ensued. The Republicans were filibustering a campaign-finance bill, one of the few items standing on President Clinton's legislative agenda. Amid an all-night session, as cots were set up and the theatrics began, Democratic Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell was frustrated. His party controlled Washington but couldn't pass meager campaign-finance reform. The Republican minority, Mitchell lamented, was "unprecedentedly obstructionist."

Come Election Day 1994, the obstructionists prevailed. Republicans took control of the House for the first time in four decades, and the Senate for the first time in eight years. More than a decade later, Democrats are borrowing from the Republican playbook.

Now Republicans are borrowing from the Democratic playbook, or an earlier Republican playbook—the attack is so very cyclical and in Beltway form, so very hypocritical.

Minority parties love the filibuster until they are a majority party. And in this same vein, the "party of no" branding is bad, but parties will still be bad. The reason, as every minority party knows, obstructionism often works. After all, it indeed worked out for Democrats in 2006.

And now for something completely different. Last week, I was stunned to read the story of Rom Houben, the Danish man who awoke out of coma after 23 years and with the help of technology is now able to communicate what it was like to live trapped inside his body.

Like most writers, I've occasionally dabbled in fiction. A long time ago - at least a dozen years, if not more - I wrote a short story with a strikingly similar story line. I can't remember where the idea came from or what possessed me to sit down and pen this particular tale, but I did.

Against my better judgment, I went and dug it out from an old computer file. Even though I've already spoiled the surprise a bit (though not all the way) for those who are interested in a brief escape from politics, I've reprinted the story below the jump.

(more...)

In the race to replace Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), who's running for governor, Republican Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt continue to find their separation in the polls within the margin of error. A new SurveyUSA poll finds Moran leading by 3 points (Dec. 4-7, 466 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.6%). Nearly three in 10 likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.

Moran 37
Tiahrt 34
Und 29

Tiahrt has the more conservative voting record and was favored 40%-33% in the poll among voters who identified themselves as conservative. Among moderates, 46% chose Moran and 25% favored Tiahrt.

Moran was first elected in 1996 and Tiahrt came to Congress in historic 1994 freshman class. Both are leaving behind mostly safe districts to run for higher office -- Moran never won with less than 73% of the vote (which came in his first election to Congress), while Tiahrt has held off underfunded challengers this decade with more than 60% each time. The primary will take place in August 2010.

My column today, Murdoch: From Media Villain to Champion, discusses how the “man depicted as the media's evil emperor has gradually become publishing's odd protagonist.”

Just in time, comes Rupert Murdoch's opinion piece in his flagship Wall Street Journal. “Journalism and Freedom” strikes a more optimistic tone about the future of publishing than many of his public comments. That may be because another target has caught his sight today—his opposition to newspapers gaining government aid in return for “non-profit” status. To bring his point home, Murdoch reaches back to the nation's founders:

... They understood that an informed citizenry requires news that is independent from government. That is one reason they put the First Amendment first.

Murdoch, however, also sounds his now familiar — and justified — drumbeat:

…There are those who think they have a right to take our news content and use it for their own purposes without contributing a penny to its production. Some rewrite, at times without attribution, the news stories of expensive and distinguished journalists who invested days, weeks or even months in their stories—all under the tattered veil of "fair use."

A new Quinnipiac poll shows a bump in public support for President Obama's handling of Afghanistan after his speech last Tuesday.

While approval of President Obama's handling of the situation in Afghanistan is evenly divided (45% approve, 45% disapprove), this represents an 11-point swing in his favor versus the last Quinnipiac survey in November which showed only 38% approving and nearly half (49%) disapproving.

Obama's speech also appeared to have a dramatic impact on persuading the public of the cause of fighting in Afghanistan. Fifty-seven percent say we are "doing the right thing" in Afghanistan - up nine points since the November survey - while only 35% say we "shouldn't be involved" in Afghanistan right now - down six points from November.

Though partisans on both sides were critical of Obama's decision to both surge troops and simultaneously set a date certain for withdrawal, solid majorities in the Quinnipac poll support both decisions. Fifty-eight percent approve of Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops, and 60% approve of his decision to begin withdrawing those troops in July 2011.

The public is split on whether Obama will follow through on his commitment to begin with drawing troops on that date: 40% say he will, while 45% say he will not and 14% are undecided.

In other news, two thirds (66%) say President Obama does not deserve the Nobel Peace Price he will accept in Oslo this week. Only 6% say they think more of the Nobel committee for selecting Obama as this year's recipient while 41% say they now think less of the committee.

Opposing a government take over of health care is the equivalent of opposing the end of slavery? Or the right of women to vote? So says the Majority Leader of the United States Senate.

While I'm sure this has Michael Moore, Arianna Huffington, and the entire cast at MSNBC hooting and hollering with praise, I have to wonder how it will play back home in Nevada - especially among Independents. Something tells me it may not send a thrill up their leg.

Clearly Reid knows what everyone else knows: he's in deep trouble trying to hold onto his seat next year. You would think Reid's instinct for self-preservation would kick in and to move him in a more moderate direction, or at least move him to use some moderate language. Instead, he steps to the well of the Senate and pulls an Alan Grayson special.

I guess Reid feels, to steal a memorable quote from The Kurgan, that it's better to burn out than to fade away.

According to the latest Gallup tracking poll, President Obama's job approval rating is now at an all time low of 47%, while his disapproval is now an an all time high of 46%.

Obama suffered a net four point loss of support overnight - a noticeably sharp decline for a tracking poll that usually doesn't move more than a point or two in either direction on any given day.

Overall, Obama's approval in the RCP Average stands at 49.0%.