Pundits have taken a break from obsessing about health reform to talking about Rep. Parker Griffith's (D-AL05) switch from the Democratic to Republican Party.  Griffith's switch certainly is newsworthy.  He becomes the first Republican to hold the district, which stretches across northern Alabama, since it was created in 1876  (though a Greenbacker held it from 1878-1880).  Griffith's voting record puts him to the right of all but fourteen Democrats; the move should make Democratic leadership nervous about those Democrats' future plans.

But perhaps Griffith should have looked at the history of party-switchers at the federal level over the last thirty years, and how they have fared in subsequent elections.  By switching parties while in office, the member often does not have time to build a base of support in the new party, and is vulnerable to primary and general election challenges.

Switching away from the Republican Party is almost always a kiss of death; Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire switched to the Constitution Party and then switched back before being defeated by John Sununu in the 2002 Republican primary.  Rep. Michael Forbes, elected in 1994, switched to the Democrats, and was defeated in the subsequent Democratic primary by a 71-year-old librarian, Regina Seltzer by 35 votes.  And of course, Arlen Specter's status as a future Senator is extremely tenuous.

On the Democratic side, party switching has been more common of late due to realignment in the South, but no more successful.  In 1989, Bill Grant of Florida (the Tallahassee-based Second District) and Tommy Robinson of Arkansas (Little Rock-based Second District) both switched parties mid-term.  Grant lost by 14 points in 1990 to Democrat Pete Peterson, while Robinson was unsuccessful in claiming the Republican nomination for Governor in 1990.

After the 1994 midterms, Reps Jimmy Hayes (LA-07), Greg Laughlin (TX-14), Billy Tauzin (LA-03), Nathan Deal (GA-09) and Mike Parker (MS-04) switched parties.  Hayes lost the GOP nomination for Senate in 1996, and Parker lost the 1997 election for Governor of Mississippi.  Laughlin lost the subsequent Republican primary election to Ron Paul; ironically enough, Laughlin was probably closer to typical Republican Party ideology than is Paul.

There are successful cases.  Tauzin and Deal successfully won re-election as Republicans, while Senate party switchers Ben Nighthorse Campbell and Richard Shelby easily won re-election (though they both had several years to ingratiate themselves to the Republican base in their states).  In 2004 Ralph Hall of Texas and Rodney Alexander of Louisiana switched parties, though Alexander caused a bit of a furor by being savvy/slimy enough to wait until just before the filing deadline, depriving Democrats of an opportunity to find a suitable challengers.

This is only noteworthy because Griffith already had a couple of credible general election challengers; in particular Madison County Commissioner and '06 Lieutenant Governor Candidate Mo Brooks.  They may or may not back down.  In addition, the district is still fairly Democratic at the base, which means that Democrats will have an opportunity to come up with a credible challenger as well (the filing deadline is April 2010).  And other Republicans may decide to join the race.  Republican activists are already calling for Griffith's defeat.

Perhaps the most troubling news for the Democrats is that Griffith probably knew all of this, but likely saw something in his polling that made the switch nevertheless worthwhile.  This is ominous news for the twenty or so Democrats in districts roughly comparable to Parker's.

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