Majority Whip Dick Durbin said yesterday that the Democrats are "moving toward 60" votes for health care in the Senate. "We think we will have it by next week." But is this a bit of false bravado, or can Durbin really get there?

Peter Suderman at Reason isn't convinced. Neither is Patricia Murphy at Politics Daily who writes that "despite yesterday's progress, the math for Harry Reid to get to 60 looks as tough as ever."

The issues are these:

Joe Lieberman appears to be tentatively on board, but neither he nor anyone else in the Senate has seen the actual language in the bill yet.

Ben Nelson is on the fence and may still balk over the cost and/or the abortion issue.

Harry Reid is now feeling push back on his left, with Howard Dean bringing out the heavy artillery this morning on GMA saying that the Senate bill now represents a "'bigger bailout for the insurance industry than AIG." Roland Burris also went public yesterday saying he will not vote for a bill that does not contain a public option. If a major liberal player in the Senate like Russ Feingold or Bernie Sanders takes a similar attitude toward the bill and jump ship the entire thing could unravel.

Republican Susan Collins of Maine said yesterday she will vote against the new stripped down version of the bill because of concerns about cost. That leaves Olympia Snowe as the only other possible Republican vote that appears to be winnable for Reid, and reading the tea leaves she's probably more than a 50/50 bet to vote against the bill.

Add it all up and it appears as if Dick Durbin and Harry Reid are still at least a vote or two short of 60.  How they get to the magic number by "next week" is anyone's guess.

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