A new Zogby poll for the League of American Voters, a group which opposes the health care legislation, shows Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln leading her most likely general election opponent, Republican Gilbert Baker, by just two points, 41 to 39, with 18 percent undecided.

The poll then proceded to probe voter opinions on health care. Fifty-four percent were opposed to "the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama and now making its way through Congress."  Thirty-eight percent said they would be "much less likely" to vote for Blanche Lincoln if they knew she supported the legislation.

Zogby then re-asked the general election question this way:

Knowing that Lincoln supports the healthcare bill, if elections for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Blanche Lincoln and Republican Gilbert Baker, who would you vote for?

The result is Lincoln drops to 37 percent while Baker surges to 49 percent, and 11.5 percent remain undecided.

That's a 14-point swing based on Lincoln's vote on health care. Again, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt given the sponsor, but even if the effect of Lincoln's vote is only half of what this poll suggests, it could be the deciding factor in her race for reelection.

CEDAR CREEK, Texas -- At its annual conference today, the Republican Governors Association released results of a poll finding that only 43 percent of voters nationally would re-elect President Obama if an election were held next month. Slightly more -- 45 percent, say it's time for someone new in the White House, while 11 percent say it would depend on the GOP nominee.

In a subsample taken in 30 gubernatorial battleground states in 2010, 42 percent would re-elect Obama, a potentially ominous sign for Democrats looking to maintain majority control of the statehouses.

Among independent voters nationally, just 37 percent nationally would elect Obama, while 46 percent want a new president, and 17 percent say it depends on the Republican opponent.

The survey was conducted by Zogby International among 2,879 voters from November 10-12, and has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. A subsample of 1,471 voters who voted in last year's presidential election and plan to vote in the midterms was conducted in states that Cook Political Report deems to have a competitive gubernatorial races.

Though a potential warning sign for Obama's political health nationally, one should not necessarily read these numbers as a potential bellwether for 2010 without seeing state-by-state numbers. Still, the RGA says the 42 percent figure mirrors results in Virginia and New Jersey, where Republicans won races earlier this month.

New poll from FOX News/Opinion Dynamics shows President Obama's approval rating sinking to a new low of 46%. An equal number now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President.

Most concerning for the White House is that 51% of Independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing compared to only 34% who approve.

On the other hand, Congress' job approval rating ticked up versus FOX's last poll in mid-October, though it remains at a dismal 26%. Sixty-three percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Last month those numbers were 24 and 66 percent, respectively.

Republicans hold a three-point edge over Democrats on the 2010 generic ballot question, 42 to 39. Fifteen percent said it was too soon to make a determination.

Twenty-three percent of those surveyed say Obama is a "weaker leader" than they expected (including 8% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 29% of Independents). As a point of comparison, that number is 10 points higher than an identical question asked about President Bush in July, 2001.

Lastly, by an overwhelming margin of 67 to 26, respondents said it was appropriate for a President of the United States to bow to a foreign leader if it is part of that country's custom.

So says the New York Daily News:

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided not to run for governor next year - but will run for U.S. Senate instead, sources told the Daily News.

A source familiar with Giuliani's thinking said the failed presidential candidate has been telling people he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010 to fill out the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's term.

If elected, the source said, he could use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - rather than run for re-election to the Senate.

A spokesperson for Giuliani downplayed the story.

I believe Rudy may be serious about running for the Senate, but I find it hard to believe that if he were to win he would turn around a few weeks later and throw his hat in the ring for President - which is what he'd have to do.

I also find it somewhat specious, given the way his last go round ended up playing out, that Giuliani's prospects of running the gauntlet in the Republican primary will somehow be better two years from now than they were a year ago. If anything, they might be worse.

New Rasmussen survey of the California Governor's race shows Republican Meg Whitman climbing into a tie with Democrat Jerry Brown:

Brown (D) 41 (-3 vs. last poll in September)
Whitman (R) 41 (+6)

Brown is the only major Democratic candidate in the field after San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom abruptly abandoned his bid three weeks ago.

Whitman is a primary battle with State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-Congressman Tom Campbell. Both men run behind Brown in hypothetical general election match ups:

Brown (D) 43
Poizner (R) 32

Brown (D) 42
Campbell (R) 33

Also of note from the poll: Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's job apporval rating is at a dismal 29%.

I was a bit surprised to see the following email in my inbox from Mitch Stewart, the director of Organizing for America, which in the new name for the grassroots activist network from Obama's 2008 campaign:

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Thomas --Right now, Sarah Palin is on a highly publicized, nationwide book tour, attacking President Obama and his plan for health reform at every turn.

It's dangerous. Remember, this is the person who coined the term "Death Panels" -- and opened the flood gates for months of false attacks by special interests and partisan extremists.Whatever lie comes next will be widely covered by the media, then constantly echoed by right-wing attack groups and others who are trying to defeat reform.

As we approach the final sprint on health reform, we can't afford more deception and delay. We need to be ready for anything -- and have the resources to respond with ads, events, and calls to Congress when the attacks come.

So we're setting a big goal: $500,000 in the next week to help push back against Sarah Palin and her allies. Please chip in $5 to help reach our goal.

Earlier this month, Palin publicly said that she hopes health reform will be "dead on arrival." And since then, she's been working fiercely toward that goal.

On Tuesday, Palin went on Rush Limbaugh's radio show where she outrageously -- and falsely -- suggested that Americans could "face jail time as punishment" if they don't buy insurance.

Palin has many more interviews scheduled on Hannity and other conservative shows in the next few weeks, with more platforms to go after the President. As soon as she does, the rest of our opponents will likely parrot those attacks.

We need to be prepared. And we're counting on you help. Can you chip in $5?

https://donate.barackobama.com/SarahPalin

Thanks,

Mitch

Mitch Stewart
Director
Organizing for America

"There's been a lot of dust flying around in the last few days and I just wanted to mention that I have the highest regard for Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace and the rest of the team ... and I appreciated all the hard work and everything they did to help the campaign. I think it's just time to move on," - Senator John McCain on the charges leveled against his former staffers by Sarah Palin in her new book.

If the 2012 election were held today, President Obama would beat Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota by nine points, 49-40, according to a new survey by St. Cloud University. It goes without saying that polling on the 2012 election three years ahead of time is utterly worthless.

Public Policy Polling (D) revisits the Missouri Senate race today, an in the expected matchup of Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R), the result is just where it was at the start of the year.

General Election Matchup
Carnahan 43 (-2 vs. last poll, 1/10-11)
Blunt 42 (-2)
Und 15 (+4)

In another matchup, Carnahan leads state Sen. Chuck Purgason 42-35. Blunt leads Purgason in a GOP primary matchup, 53-16. You can find more polling on the race here.

Carnahan is the daughter of Missouri's late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan, who took her husband's seat when he was posthumously elected in 2000. She boasts the strongest name recognition and favorable score of the group.

Favorable Ratings
Carnahan 40 / 36
Blunt 30 / 38
Purgason 7 / 14

President Obama has just a 43 percent approval rating in the Show Me State; 52 percent disapprove of his job performance. The proposed health care reform bill is very unpopular, supported by just 34 percent of Missourians and opposed by 55 percent.

“If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity,” PPP's Dean Debnam says in a polling memo. “But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive.”

President Barack Obama's job approval rating is under 50% for the first time, according to a new national survey from Quinnipiac University. The survey, conducted November 9-16 among 2,518 registered voters, shows 48% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while 42% disapprove. That is a slight decline from Quinnipiac's last poll in early October, which showed 50% approval and 41% disapproval.

Support for Obama's handling of specific issues has also declined in the past month, most notably on Afghanistan:

Afghanistan
Approve 38 (-4 vs. last poll 10/8)
Disapprove 49 (+9)

Economy
Approve 43 (-4)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Foreign Policy
Approve 49 (no change)
Disapprove 42 (+5)

A plurality (48%) still believes we are "doing the right thing" by fighting the war in Afghanistan, though that's a four point drop from the same question in October's survey.

The public is slightly in favor (47% to 42%) of Obama granting General McChrysta'ls request for 40,000 additional troops, though 55% say they would like to see us spend no more than two more years with troops in Afghanistan.

Fifty-three percent say the "trust" President Obama to make the right decision regarding troop levels in Afghanistan - a net 6-point decline from last month - while 77% say they trust the US military to make the right recommendations on troop levels - also a 7 point net decline in support from last month.

Fifrty-four percent believe we will stay in Afghanistan too long rather than leave too soon, but a slim majority - 51% - believe we will avoid Afghanistan becoming a replay of Vietnam.