This years' races are particularly tough to call, and I'm really only 100% comfortable with two of these five calls, and only one of the margins.  That said:

NJ: Christie 46 Corzine 44 Daggett 8.  The polls pretty much consistently showed a last-minute movement toward Christie.  Whether this is due to some kind of Halloween/World Series effect remains to be seen.  Moreover, Dems probably have a superior GOTV effort here.  I think this is about the most likely outcome, but I don't think Christie's likely to go much higher in his win, and there's a great chance that he goes lower.

ME rejects the legislature's approval of gay marriage, 51-49.  Normally I'd say a ballot initiative that isn't consistently above 50% on the "yes" option is going to lose.  But I think these gay marriage initiatives are different, and the opponents are unusually primed to turn out and vote.

VA: McDonnell 56 Deeds 44.  We'll see what happens in Northern Virginia.  Don't think McDonnell will go much lower than 55 percent, and could go as high as 60.

CA-10:  Garamendi 56, Hamer 43.  With one poll out there, its hard to make any predictions.  I'm actually particularly interested in this race, for reasons I'll go into later.

NY-23:  Hoffman 48, Owens 46, Scozzafava 6.  Polls are all over the place here, but I think Hoffman pulls it out in the end, but by a closer margin than many are predicting.  Incidentally, this is exactly how conservative candidates go to Congress in New York -- a liberal Republican and a Democrat split the left-leaning vote.  Buckley and D'Amato (who was also on the Republican line) went this way, and I believe (and I'm sure to be innundated with e-mails telling me I'm wrong) that this is how William Carney was first elected in NY-1 in 1978.

A year after Barack Obama won the presidency, the cover of Huffington Post:

Arianna: What Would Candidate Obama Think Of President Obama?



I love Election Day, because it's the only 24 hour period in politics where the bullshit basically stops. All the hype, the spin, the worn out campaign cliches promising "progress", the psychobabble about what the public wants, and the reading of the tea leaves mercifully comes to a halt - if only for a few hours - while regular people actually go out and work their will in the voting booth.

Of course, the tornado of BS will kick up again the minute the votes are counted, which is the nature of the beast. But here's something we do know: there are three races of significance today, all of which are in the national spotlight and being are viewed - fairly or not - as proxy fights between the two parties and the current occupant of the White House. Because we have an odd number of contests, today is bound to produce a  "winning side" and a "losing side." Just how strong and/or compelling that narrative is will depend on what happens today.

If the polls are any indication, it looks today will bring a Republican blowout in Virginia, something like a photo-finish in New Jersey, and it's anyone's guess what will happen in New York's 23 Congressional district where one final poll showed nearly one in five voters undecided on election eve.

Voters in New York City will also elect a Mayor today (Bloomberg is running ahead of his Democratic challenger) and residents of Maine will decide whether or not to repeal the state's recently passed law allowing gay marriage.

The polls are already open (see closing times below), so let's sit back today and enjoy the spectacle of democracy in action and find out what voters are really thinking. They'll be plenty of time after that to try and figure out what it all means.

Poll Closing Times
Virginia: 7 pm ET
New Jersey: 8 pm ET
NY-23: 9 pm ET
New York City: 9 pm ET

Many liberals argue that the conservative turn against Dede Scozzafava in New York's 23rd Congressional district amounts to a disaster for Republicans. If Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman wins the district Tuesday, these pundits say, small “c” conservatives will draw a dangerous lesson: go more right to win back Washington.

The Huffington Post's top headline Monday morning: No Room In The Herd For Moderates.

Or to quote Markos Moulitsas on Monday:

The true import of this race has already been determined -- the teabagger coup and message to the few remaining non-doctrinaire Republicans that they are no longer welcomed in their party. And the conservatives have their scalp, whether Doug Hoffman wins or loses. They are energized, and ironically, rather than aim their guns at Democrats, they are taking aim squarely at their own party.

Liberals might want to be wary of their hypocrisy; the political left is continuously attempting to purge moderates from the Democratic Party. (See Lieberman, Joe--who, as Ryan Grim reported, played a central role in helping Democrats pass the stimulus bill.)

But if what some liberal observers say is true, should the leftwing want the conservative to win New York's 23?

The New York Times Frank Rich went this far over the weekend:

It's even better for Democrats if Hoffman wins. Punch-drunk with this triumph, the right will redouble its support of primary challengers to 2010 G.O.P. candidates they regard as impure…

Of course, Democrats want the opposite. As Politico reported, Democrats went into fifth gear to secure Dede Scozzafava's endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens.

It's logical why Democrats want to win this seat. It's a vote in the House with national resonance. Democrats would naturally spin a victory as another data point in the decline of the Republican Party. It also sets up a "heads we win, tails you lose" frame for this race, regardless of the outcome.

What's most rich, some on the political left argue that the effort to unseat Scozzafava is somehow different (and more destructive to the GOP) than the same tactics constantly pushed by many liberals. Rahm Emanuel can reasonably make this case against conservatives, as a pragmatist. But can the hard left? Hardly.

Recall liberal Rep. Maxine Waters this past summer. She blamed Emanuel for his effort to help elect moderate Democrats in 2006. Her gripe, those moderates were now holding up liberal reform.

Waters forgot that liberal candidates could not have won the red territory in 2006. Think Govs. Ted Strickland and Bob Casey's gubernatorial victories. In the House, think Heath Shuler's win in North Carolina or Brad Ellsworth's win in Indiana. Waters was practicing the very mindset that some liberals now criticize in conservatives, both in upstate New York and nationally.

But this anecdote from a reader had an interesting enough viewpoint, which contradicted my own basic thoughts on Scozzafava's dropping out, and I thought it was worth posting (with light editing):

Sean -- I think you're closer to the truth today than yesterday.  I must disagree that most conservatives had already moved to Hoffman [before Scozzafava dropping out].  Many residents like myself, who are committed Republicans find Hoffman not too appealing- he's suffering from knowledge deficit- but [are never going to vote for a Democrat like] Owens.  DeDe was my choice until yesterday.  So, with DeDe's exit we have to move to Hoffman, and thus the split may go more like this-  DeDe's supporters will:  25 % stay home, 25 % go to Owens, 25% go to Hoffman, 25 % undecided, who will split 50-50, thus Hoffman get ultilmately 37 % of DeDe's vote, as will Owens- since Hoffman leads, he'll win.  Time will tell, and it's getting short.

SurveyUSA's latest poll slams another nail in Virginia Democrats' coffin, as it shows Republicans leading each of the top three races on the ticket by at least 16 points -- including gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell up 18 points. The potential GOP sweep tomorrow would certainly be a blow to Dems, who have enjoyed a run of statewide success in recent years.

McDonnell now leads by 14.0 points in the RCP Average for Virginia. Both candidates will be in Richmond tomorrow night, on opposite sides of the city.

Two more surveys out in New Jersey, both with different results. The takeaway: this race is likely within the margin of error.

Monmouth University/Gannett
(722 LVs, 10/31-11/1, +/- 3.7%)
Corzine 43 (+1 vs. last poll, 10/28-30)
Christie 41 (-2)
Daggett 8 (unch)
Don't Know 7 (+2)

SurveyUSA
(582 LVs*, 10/30-11/1, +/- 4.1%)
Christie 45 (+2 vs. last poll, 10/26-28)
Corzine 42 (-1)
Daggett 10 (-1)
Undecided 3 (unch)

Christie leads by 1.2 in the RCP Average of New Jersey.

"If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker," says Monmouth's Patrick Murray. Their polling sample has a lower GOP response rate than SurveyUSA's, though the latter has a higher Dem response rate as well.

SurveyUSA notes that the poll was in the field as New Jerseyans were glued to the World Series, and families were out trick-or-treating. "As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data." A warning sign, however: Christie's lead among independent voters has climbed from 12 to 30 points in a month. Corzine does lead, however, among those who say they have already voted.

Siena's polling demonstrates some movement toward Doug Hoffman (C) since its last polling, but unlike PPP, it shows him well under 50%.  Its latest results show Hoffman with 41% of the vote, Democrat Bill Owens with 36% of the vote, and Scozzafava still getting 6% of the vote. 

Digging down into the crosstabs -- always a dangerous chore since the margin errors are usually very high -- we can see that 24% of the self-described liberals are undecided, while 9% of the moderates and 14% of the conservatives are undecided.  Similarly, 18% of Indepdents are undecided, 17% of Democrats, and 14% of Republicans are undecided.

This could well mean that there more room for growth for Owens than for Hoffman (you can't even tell this much without knowing what percentage of the sample self-describes as liberal, moderate, or conservative).  On the other hand, voters who are undecided this late in the game are likely to stay home rather than vote.  And, of course, you'd always rather be up by 5 than down by 5 the day before and election.

A reliable source on the ground in upstate New York confirms my suspicion that the PPP poll involves an optimstic scenario for Republicans.  He reports that other pollsters have numbers in the hopper that are not nearly as good for Hoffman.  Also, with Scozzafava recording robocalls for Owens and labor united behind the Democrat, the result is that voters in the district are being bombarded with calls at the last minute.  This could help boost Democratic turnout beyond what PPP expects.

It's a crazy race, and is going to make for a fun blogging night tomorrow.

UPDATE:  Reliable Source On The Ground further intimates that the robocalls may be skewing PPP's polling.  He posits people may be taking their phones off the hook, or hanging up on automated calls.  Refusals to answer are a pollster's nightmare, because you have no way of knowing if and/or how they bias your results, and there is certainly an argument to be made that this is occurring here.  Of course, we have no way of knowing whether or how this is biasing the poll results, even if they are occurring.

New York City will likely re-elect independent Michael Bloomberg to a third-term Tuesday. But the real story is term limits.

Bloomberg convinced, or bullied if you prefer, 29 of 51 City Council members last year to amend New York City's term limits law, despite voters twice upholding it by referendum. Mayors were restricted to two, four-year terms.

To some outsiders, Bloomberg's ambition for term three may seem unremarkable. Over in Boston, Mayor Thomas Menino is seeking an unprecedented fifth term in office. But the circumstances of Bloomberg are unique.

Bloomberg owes his election to the term-limits law. It is what forced Rudy Giuliani to leave Gracie Mansion and made Bloomberg's tenure possible. That irony must infuriate Bloomberg's opponents.

Giuliani was popular at the end of his second term, almost entirely due to his performance after the September 11 attacks. He considered extending his term after 9/11. Nationally he was America's mayor. But up close, many city voters still saw warts. Democrats long accused Giuliani of being more dictator than mayor. The mayor had earned newfound respect by late 2001. But old wounds lingered.

Giuliani ultimately decided it would be too controversial. He later endorsed Bloomberg. The Giuliani-stamp helped push the media tycoon to victory. Now it's Bloomberg who has made the power grab in a respect Giuliani desired, but dared not.

What did Bloomberg have that Giuliani did not? Billions, of course, is the primary answer. The media tycoon has spent at least $85 million of his own money. That total may rise to $100 million by the close of Tuesday. In total, Bloomberg has spent the most money of any politician in U.S. history on his bids to be merely mayor, more than a quarter billion of his own money. By comparison, in this race, his top competitor Bill Thompson has spent $6 million.

But as Jon Corzine demonstrates over in New Jersey, money cannot make everyone's bid so easy. Bloomberg is seen as an effective executive, and low key one at that (by comparison to Giuliani). “The real test of any mayor is how well the city works. In his eight years in office, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has managed to make the unpredictable city of New York work astonishingly well,” as The New York Times wrote in its endorsement.

Polls show that about four in 10 voters say they are less inclined to back Bloomberg because of the term limits issue. That's likely not enough to unseat the mayor.

The Real Clear Politics average has Bloomberg ahead by 13 points. That gap might narrow. In 2005, as many city politicos recall, Bloomberg only won by 20 points despite leading Fernando Ferrer by 34 points in one of the last polls.

Yet the most dramatic chapter has already taken place. This past weekend, a Thompson volunteer had his dog's leash in one hand and pamphlets in the other. One couple walked by and apologized for not taking a pamphlet. The man said, shrugging, he was again voting for Bloomberg. “You do have a choice,” the Thompson volunteer insisted with a pang of futility.

When polls close Tuesday, the billionaire will owe his mayoralty to the so-called "Bloomberg 29" as much as the city's residents.