One of the big surprises of the night on Tuesday was New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's narrow re-election win.  Two theories seem to be making their way around to explain the near-defeat.  The first theory is that it was a backlash against his end-run around term limits.  The second theory is that it is just a bad year to be an incumbent.  Maybe if Congressman Anthony Weiner had run, some have surmised, he would have defeated Hizzoner.

I haven't seen exit polling, but when I saw a map of the returns by city council district, an alternate explanation immediately jumped out at me, probably because I spend way too much time staring at Congressional District maps.  I think its much more consistent with the facts then the other two theories I mentioned.  I'll explain all the markings I've drawn on the map in a second, but for now let's just look at reds and blues on the underlying map:

If what we were looking at was really a backlash against Bloomberg's removal of term limits, we would probably expect to see a dropoff in his performance in the more Republican portions of the district (since term limits is inexplicably a left-right issue, with conservatives supporting them).  But we don't see that -- Bloomberg did quite well on Staten Island, the bastion of conservatism in an otherwise liberal city.

Similarly, if what we were talking about was simply "a rough time to be governing," we would expect to see a more generalized depression in Bloomberg's performance.  But some areas really, really like Bloomberg, and some areas really, really don't like him.  The City was badly divided on election night.

Instead, I think this election was about, simply, race.  Although there wasn't much coverage of the election in the news media, Bloomberg's opponent was the City's African-American Comptroller, Bill Thompson.  The black lines on the map above show the city's Congressional districts -- which are often non-contiguous and horrendously gerrymandered to achieve racial balance in representation.

Those districts that send minority members to Congress are cross-hatched.  Notice the near-perfect overlap between the heavily white districts that still send white members to Congress and Bloomberg's performance in the underlying City Council districts.  Bloomberg prevailed among whites in upper-class Manhattan (look at the Upper East Side!), suburban Staten Island, and working class areas of Queens and Brooklyn.  Thompson did great among non-white voters.  Unless African-Americans in New York have a unique preference for term limits, I think this racial analysis is a far better, albeit more depressing, explanation.

Now would Congressman Weiner have turned his "T"-shaped Congressional district in the middle of the map (his district also encompasses a few non-contiguous areas in the Southwest of the map) blue while keeping the minority areas as strongly in his column as did Thompson?  Maybe, but I somehow doubt it.

We've made great progress in this country on the issue of race, but it still matters, a lot.  It nearly toppled a Mayor and potential President on Tuesday, and no one seemed to notice.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows potential Republican voters in 2012 rating Mike Huckabee highest among a list of candidates they woud "seriously consider" supporting in 2012. Romney and Palin finish a close second, with Newt coming in fourth:

Next I'm going to read you a list of possible Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would, or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president.

Huckabee: 71% would, 25% would not
Romney: 65/31
Palin: 65/33
Gingrich: 60/35
Pawlenty: 32/38
Barbour: 26/52

Among all adults, Huckabee also tops the question of whether the candidates are, or are not, qualified to be president, while Palin slips to fourth:

Huckabee: 50% say qualified, 36% not qualified
Romney: 49/39
Gingrich: 44/46
Palin: 31/62
Pawlenty: 25/51
Barbour: 18/57

(Note: this post has been amended to strike a comparison between the two data sets above.)

Republican pollster Ed Goeas has released a two-page memo with his take on last night's results. Goeas writes:

The Democrats' key argument is that yesterday's elections represent absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, most of all they were certainly not a referendum on Obama. If anything, they continue, the elections represent troubling signs for a Republican party about to lose control to a conservative grassroots rebellion. They would have us believe that Republicans, in winning, have in fact lost.

If journalists print this spin with a straight face, then they will also have to report that up is down, black is white, and the Redskins will win the Superbowl this season.

Goeas goes on to offer four points that he says dispel the Democratic myths of the 2009 elections:

1. While today's elections were not a referendum on President Obama as a person, they are a repudiation of the Democrat big-spending and big-government agenda being foisted upon voters.

2. The electorate has not fundamentally evolved as some predicted following the 2008 election.

3. The so-named "Civil War" within the Republican Party is a minor skirmish compared to the struggle for cohesion in the Democratic majority in Congress.

4. The conservative resurgence, including the Tea Party movement, is an energizing force for Republicans who live by fundamental fiscally conservative principles.

Read the whole memo and decide for yourself if he makes a convincing case.

Meanwhile, for the sake of comparison, Greg Sargent has the Democrats' talking points on last night's election.

UPDATE: And here are those talking points in action, with Jake Tapper's interview of David Axelrod. A taste of the exchange:

TAPPER: Democrats lose the two big governors races, independents break for the Republicans -- how is this not a reflection on the president or his policies?

AXELROD: I think you've got to focus on the race that was actually about national issues. The one race that really focused on the President and national issues was this race up in New York 23, the special election in a distinct that's been held by Republicans for 140 years. The Republicans got involved in a civil war up there. The Democrat embraced the President's policies and his vision for the future. And now a Democrat holds the seat for the first time in 140 years. So I think there was auguring in that problems for the Republican Party, because they've got a deep fissure, they pushed moderates away. And it was encouraging for us.

A bit later, Tapper tries again:

TAPPER:; What about the independent voters? They broke even in Virginia between Obama and John McCain in 2008. Yesterday McDonnell walked away with them over Creigh Deeds. Are they leaving the Democratic Party, is the Democratic Coalition, the Obama coalition bleeding independents?

AXELROD: I think one thing it that has happened is that Republicans are leaving the Republican party. The Republicans are at a 20-year low in terms of Republican identification. Some of those Republicans now call themselves independents -- and yet I think in state races they are supporting Republicans. The big party identification question is what's going to happen to moderate Republicans. Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, a lot of the leaders of the Republican party went into a Republican district, essentially purged the Republican candidate for being too moderate, and said to moderate Republicans: "there's no place for you in our party." And they lost a seat that was held by Republicans for 140 years.  I think that's the greatest story that has come out of this election.

The White House and its allies spin this angle as much as they want - it's certainly how the post-election kabuki works. The only danger for President and his party is if they really believe it.

A year later, Rassmussen takes his numbers and sums up Obama's standing:

Obama lost the support of Republicans in February during the debate over the stimulus package. Over the summer, economic concerns and the health care debate cost the president support among unaffiliated voters. By October, a month-by-month review showed that Obama's overall job approval had slipped to 48% among Likely Voters.

This morning, on the anniversary of his election, the president's Approval Index rating [a measure of strong sentiments] is at -13, just one point above the lowest level yet recorded and down 41 points since the Inauguration.

Economic conditions have played a role in dimming Obama's support. For much of the past year, voters continued to blame George W. Bush for the economy, but the blame is more evenly divided now between Bush and Obama.

[Three key numbers:]

- More than 40% expect a tax hike and hardly anybody expects their taxes to go down.

- 74% of voters now view the president as politically liberal.

- Just 33% believe the stimulus package has helped.

… Despite the struggles and challenges, however, Obama's overall ratings remain mixed. He retains very strong support from Democrats and endures very strong opposition from Republicans. Among those not affiliated with either major party, there is some dissatisfaction.

In the annals of mind-blowing hypocrisy, today's column by Markos Moulitsas goes down as one of the all time greats. Moulitsas writes of the Republican intraparty tussle in NY-23:

But Scozzafava failed the teabagger purity test by supporting abortion rights and gay marriage, and thus became the target of right-wing Doug Hoffman on the Conservative Party ballot line. [snip]

With Scozzafava's de facto ouster from the GOP, moderate Republicans are now included in the movement conservatives' enemies list, which already includes African-Americans, gays, immigrants, Latinos, single women, urbanites, non-Christians, Northeasterners, Hollywood, San Francisco, Chicago and Massachusetts.

Forget a “big tent”; a pup tent would likely be too spacious for what's left of the so-called Republican “coalition.”

Ultimately, whether Hoffman wins or loses is irrelevant — Democrats don't need the extra seat, and it'll likely be eliminated in post-census redistricting anyway. The tarring and feathering of Scozzafava is far more significant — emboldened conservative activists have their first trophy victory in their jihad against the Republican establishment, and are hungry to beat non-ideologue Republicans across the country.

Yes, this is the same guy who led the revolt against Joe Lieberman in 2006, going so far as to cut commercials for his left wing opponent in the hopes of enforcing "ideological purity" and running the Democrats' former VP pick out of the party.

And he's the same guy who wrote the book "Crashing the Gate" - a "how to" guide for progressives to revolt against the party establishment ("To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson, the tree of a political party must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of reformers and insiders.").  It's a book that advocates more or less exactly what transpired in New York-23.

There are only two possible conclusions to draw: Markos is either too dumb to see the contradiction, or he's being patently hypocritical and hoping readers are too stupid to notice. For the record, I don't think Markos is dumb.

UPDATE: Incidentally, here is Moulitsas last night basically contradicting his Hill column again, saying that the lesson from last night is that Democrats need to be less conservative and more progressive to turn out their base.

Washington Post: A warning to Democrats: It's not 2008 anymore

New York Times: G.O.P. Wins Two Key Governors' Races; Bloomberg Prevails in a Close Contest

Wall Street Journal: GOP Wins Key States

Los Angeles Times: GOP gets a lift; Democrats get a warning

USA Today: N.J., Va. give GOP reason to celebrate

Comment and analysis on tonight's elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York:

12:02 -- FOX declares the race for Owens. With 71% in, Maine looks to be overriding the legislature's decision to allow gay marriage in the state, though it's still too close to call. And finally, with 23% reporting, John Garamendi's lead has shrunk ever-so-slightly to 55.6%-39.8%. With that, we'll call it a night. Thanks for following. If you want to stick around to the bitter end (or are on the West Coast), you can look at these sites here and here. -- SEAN TRENDE

11:57 -- A tale of two Democratic pollsters in the New Jersey race. PPP's final poll had Christie winning this race by 6 points - one of the highest spreads for Christie among all posters out there, but now we also know it was the most accurate preelection number of the lot. Meanwhile, Dem Corps showed a Corzine +4 victory - the highest margin of any pollster projecting a Corzine win, which also turned out to be the most inaccurate of the entire bunch. One pollster gets a gold star, the other has egg on their face. -- TOM BEVAN

11:40 -- Oswego County just came in. All that's left are precincts in St. Lawrence County, which Owens is carrying 55%-40% right now. Unless Hoffman has some huge stash of conservative precincts in St. Lawrence County, its over. --SEAN TRENDE

11:38 -- Don't forget about California. With 22% reporting, John Garamendi is winning 56%-40%. No huge surprise there. --SEAN TRENDE

11:37 -- With 2/3 in, the Maine same-sex marriage law is losing, 51.6%-48.4%. The trend line is not encouraging for supporters of gay marriage - unless Bangor is still out. --SEAN TRENDE

11:34 -- Last word on Virginia for tonight:  Looks like McDonnell narrowly carried Fairfax County.  --SEAN TRENDE

11:30 -- Erick Erickson is claiming that Hoffman is going to win. He'd need 55% of the votes in the remaining precincts. I guess it depends which precincts are left. There's about 50 in Oswego and 50 in St. Lawrence. One's a Hoffman county and one's an Owens county, but what really matters is which precincts remain. --SEAN TRENDE

11:27 -- With 97% in, its looking like a 4.5% win for Christie in New Jersey. Republicans had quite a few near misses in the Assembly, but it looks like the Democrats will hold serve. --SEAN TRENDE

11:24 -- A somewhat stunning fact: by January, the governorship in NJ will have changed hands 8 times in 9 years. -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:21 -- For those keeping score in Virginia, it looks like Republicans have picked up five seats in the House of Delegates, with one seat uncalled. Bob McDonnell's margin right now is 58.69%-41.2%. Looking at the scattering of remaining districts, it looks like that will hold. If he stays above 58.3%, he will have the highest percentage of victory for any Republican Governor in the state's history, and will have scored the highest percentage for any Governor since Albertis S. Harrison, Jr., got 63.8 percent against poor H. Clyde Pearson in 1961. --SEAN TRENDE

11:17 -- Chant at Christie HQ: "Yes we did!" -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:16 -- Gay marriage is losing in Maine, 51-49%, with 56% reporting. Again, without knowing which counties are in its hard to predict anything. SEAN TRENDE

11:12 -- Release of the moment: "DGA looks ahead to 2010 election cycle" -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:10 -- The remaining ballots will have to break 55% to Hoffman in order for him to win. --SEAN TRENDE

11:09 -- Asked if the White House will weigh in with a statement on tonight's races, a spokesperson replies simply: "No." -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:08 -- Mayor of Watertown says Hoffman has lost. Still some ballots to be counted, but I'd say about a 70% chance Owens is the first Congressman to represent Saint Lawrence and Franklin Counties since the 1850s. --SEAN TRENDE

11:05 -- Aaaaand, with 46% reporting, gay marriage looks to be losing in Maine, 50.2-49.8%. --SEAN TRENDE

11:04 -- DGA exec. dir. Nathan Daschle: "While this certainly isn't the outcome we hoped for, New Jersey is a better place because of [Corzine's] tough choices. We also congratulate Chris Christie on tonight's victory, and we wish him the best in these next four years." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

11:01 -- Owens is actually running behind Obama in a lot of these counties. Interesting. --SEAN TRENDE

10:58 -- Things aren't as great for Democrats in upstate NY as I thought. Clinton, Essex and Franklin counties, the Democratic strongholds, are largely in. Fulton County, which went for McCain with 54% of the vote, isn't in yet. Lewis County, another 54% McCain county is still out. On the other hand, St. Lawrence County, a 58% Obama County, is only half in. I guess it depends what happens in those counties and in the remainder of Oswego County. Still not great news for Hoffman, though. --SEAN TRENDE

10:57 -- Tim Pawlenty, tying himself to RGA's efforts for Chris Christie: "I'm thrilled our historic team-effort paid off." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:56 -- Corzine says he called Christie to congratulate him, and he was "gracious in response." Will work hard for smooth transition. --MIKE MEMOLI

10:55 -- A political junkie's best friend: county-by-county results in NY-23. --SEAN TRENDE

10:54 -- DNC Chair Tim Kaine seemed to know what would happen tonight...on Monday. In an interview on MSNBC yesterday, Kaine said: "We think the story may well be the special congressional race -- NY-23. You have a Republican Party that has put nearly a million dollars into their nominee's race...and she has now endorsed the Democratic candidate. I think that's going to be the continuing story tomorrow night." That's certainly a better story than the Dems losing NJ and VA. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:49 -- Gov. Jon Corzine is said to be on his way to the ballroom. -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:47 -- With 37% reporting, gay marriage is staying alive in Maine by 37 votes right now. I'd guess that a lot of the outstanding votes are from rural precincts, which probably bodes well for overturning the legislature's allowance of gay marriage. --SEAN TRENDE

10:46 -- For what it's worth, Corzine has pulled ahead in Bergen County. Which may just mean we can stop saying, "No Republican has won New Jersey without winning Bergen County." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:45 -- Apparently Syracuse area is coming in. I think Hoffman's probably going to lose. --SEAN TRENDE

10:42 -- Hoffman's in real trouble in upstate New York. He'd have to carry the remaining portion of the district with about 54% of the two-party vote in order to win. Its frustrating not knowing where the remaining votes are located. --SEAN TRENDE

10:39 -- Asked if he'd think of running for governor in 4 years, Rothman says: "If there's an opportunity to help the people of the entire state someday, I'd certainly consider that." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:38 -- More from Rep. Rothman (D): "I wish the best to Chris Christie, our next governor." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:34 -- Rep. Rothman sounds more realistic. "I'd like to believe there's still some hope, but all the evidence appears to be to the contrary," he tells RCP -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:33 -- With 40% reporting, Owens (D) is leading Hoffman 50%-45%. A lot depends on what precincts are in and what precincts are not. If the remaining precincts are in the Syracuse area, and the Northeast is in, then its OK for Hoffman. Otherwise, its bad news for the conservative. In other news, the gay marriage question is still neck-in-neck in Maine, with the "legislature got it right" answer on top. -- SEAN TRENDE

10:29 -- NYT still has Bloomberg as the winner, up 3% with 76% in. --SEAN TRENDE

10:27 -- At Corzine HQ, Rep. Rush Holt says one should be "very careful" about calling this prematurely. -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:26 -- NBC withdraws its call for Bloomberg. Whoa. --SEAN TRENDE

10:22 -- It may only stay this way for a moment, but right now the gay marriage question in Maine is split 50.0 in favor and 50.0 against - the two sides are currently separated by just 79 votes out of more than 134,000 cast. --TOM BEVAN

10:19 -- RGA release: "Defeating a deep-pocketed incumbent in a Democratic state like New Jersey is a tremendous accomplishment and signals the beginning of the GOP's comeback." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:17 -- The race the conservative movement cares about the most, NY-23, doesn't look to be going so well for Doug Hoffman. With 27% reporting, Owens leads 50.6% to 44.4% (with 5.1% for the candidate who dropped out. I guess these are the people who tell SurveyUSA that they've already voted, but are still undecided). --SEAN TRENDE

10:13 -- AP calls NJ for Christie. -- TOM BEVAN

10:11 -- 21% reporting in NY23 and Democrat Bill Owens is up 8. No sense of which votes are in and which are still out. --TOM BEVAN

10:07 -- 22% reporting in Maine and the "Nos" (those who don't want to repeal the gay marriage law) are hanging on to a slim 51-49 lead. --TOM BEVAN

10:02 -- Virginia is looking to be a pretty big win for McDonnell -- probably about 58%-59%, higher than I'd predicted. Looking at Virginia Democrats, McDonnell won 62% in Glenn Nye's district (VA-02), 61% in Tom Periello's district (VA-05), 68% in Rick Boucher's district (VA-09), and currently 55% in Gerry Connolley's district (VA-11), though I think that'll shrink. Watch them closely on the health care vote. --SEAN TRENDE

10:00 -- On Twitter, RNC Chair Michael Steele announces he's New Jersey-bound -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:58 -- Some math here. Corzine trails by about 100,000 votes, with 66% reporting. Where does he make up that 100K? The big money districts for Dems are Camden, Essex and Hudson. Camden is 2/3 in with 70k votes. Give Corzine the rest of the votes and its about 30k votes. Do this type of analysis with Hudson and Essex and you get 50k or so for Hudson and 13k for Essex, which gets him his 100k. But there's still Republican counties out there, and Corzine isn't going to get 100% of those votes (probably). --SEAN TRENDE

9:55 -- A GOP source in Bergen sends these updated numbers from key NJ county: 84% reporting, Christie has 650-vote edge -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:54 -- Corzine music update: "It's Not Over" replaces NJN feed. --MIKE MEMOLI

9:54 -- According to Virginia blogger Not Larry Sabato, with three races uncalled, Democrats are down four seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. If they lose five seats, I think they'll breathe a sigh of relief. --SEAN TRENDE

9:51 -- Nearly an hour after polls closed in NY, results for the 23rd are coming in at a snail's pace. The NYT page has 8% reporting, with Owens winning 53% to Hoffman's 42% and Scozzafava at 4%. But that's a total of less than 10,000 votes. Leaked exits (via Ben Smith's twitter account) had Hoffman leading Owens 50-47, with Scozzafava at 2.5%. At this rate, it'll be tomorrow before we know who won. --TOM BEVAN

9:46 -- NYT fixed Sussex County. 58% in, Christie leads by 90,000 votes. I don't think there's enough votes out there for Corzine to win. --SEAN TRENDE

9:45 -- Daggett takes stage. We don't know who won, "but we know it's not us." -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:43 -- Hudson County, where Corzine ran up huge margins in '05, reporting just 36% turnout tonight -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:40 -- Setting the scene at Corzine HQ: music turned off and NJN coverage being piped in. Much of the crowd is taking advantage of the cash bar and soggy water dogs outside the ballroom. -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:39 -- Corzine is getting his second wind. With 53% reporting, he's down 49.3%-44.7%. Lots of votes in heavily Dem counties (Hudson, Essex) still out. Nonetheless, Christie is ahead in Bergen county, the state's most populous, with 79% of precincts reporting. --SEAN TRENDE

9:38 -- In VA, with 91% reporting, McDonnell beating Deeds by 20 points - 60 to 40. He overperformed his average in the polls by about 5 1/2 points, while Deeds came in pretty close to spot on his number in the polls. SurveyUSA, which had McDonnell's lead the highest of any pollster at 18 points, looks to have nailed the result closest with its final poll of 58-40. -- TOM BEVAN

9:33 -- Great map of election results in Va. on the Virginia Public Access Project homepage. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:32 -- NYT is reporting Corzine carried Sussex County 64%-26%. A typo? In 2005 Corzine lost it 60-35. --SEAN TRENDE.

9:31 -- NJ Gov tightening. With 44% counted, Christie leads 49-44-6. Margin is 54,000 right now -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:30 -- McDonnell scored big victories in the crucial exurban counties of Loudoun and Prince William, which are populated by fiscally conservative Republicans who have swung to Democrats. Kaine won both counties in 2005. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:29 -- There's six counties in New Jersey with over half the precincts in. Corzine is running 7 points behind his 2005 totals in Gloucester, 6 behind in Cape May, 14 behind in Ocean, 13 in Monmouth, 10 in Hunterdon, and 7 in Hudson. --SEAN TRENDE

9:28 -- With just 13% reporting in Maine, 52.5% of voters are against repealing the state's recently passed law allowing gay marriage, while 47.5% are in favor. --TOM BEVAN

9:18 -- Another thought, stolen from Jay. Daggett is getting about 6% of the vote. An awful lot of people who don't like Corzine are going to have to vote for him in order for him to win. --SEAN TRENDE

9:19 -- From the NJN/Gannett exit poll: Obama has 57% job approval in NJ. Among those who approve, Corzine wins 75-17. Christie wins 88-7 among those who disapprove -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:17 -- Corzine would have to carry the rest of the state with about 53% of the two party vote in order to sweep the state. With most of the heavily Dem areas half in, this seems unlikely. --SEAN TRENDE

9:15 -- DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle released statement congratulating Deeds on his campaign: "With the worst recession since the Great Depression and history favoring the other side, we knew this race would be difficult...Sen. Deeds ran a strong campaign, despite all the headwinds he faced....We also congratulate Bob McDonnell on tonight's victory, and we wish him the best in these next four years." -- TOM BEVAN

9:13 -- Wow. Corzine is only carrying Camden County by 7 points. He carried it by 25 points in 2005. Still, only 16% of the precincts are in, so maybe its the more exurban portions of the county. - SEAN TRENDE

9:11 -- WaPo's Chris Cillizza: "Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters." -- TOM BEVAN

9:09 -- With 80% of the precincts in, McDonnell is up 60.5%-39.39%. The remaining precincts are largely in the 3d, 8th, 10th, and 11th, so McDonnell's total should come down some. Still, he's contending for the biggest victory margin since 1961, and the biggest win for a Republican ever. --SEAN TRENDE

9:04 -- In Virginia, the delegate races are looking like a disappointment for the GOP. If they split the remaining uncalled races, they'll have picked up 4-5 seats, which isn't bad, but isn't the tsunami they were hoping for. --SEAN TRENDE

9:03 -- In Virginia, exit polling shows McDonnell winning 66% of the white vote, compared to McCain winning 60% in the 2008 POTUS race. The breakdown of the African-American vote is basically identical (9% to McDonnell; 9% to McCain). The big swing from last year to this year is being driven in the increase in the white share of the total vote: 70% in 2008 versus 78% in 2009. -- JAY COST

9:01 -- In New Jersey, Daggett's numbers are lower than what he was polling - typical of the drop off that previous third party candidates often suffer (e.g. Nader in 2000 and Anderson in 1980). It's not yet clear who that favors, but so far Corzine is pulling in the same % as his job approval numbers in final polling. -- JAY COST

9:00 -- Polls closing now in New York. -- TOM BEVAN

8:59 -- Also, Gloucester County was right at the statewide result in 2005: 53% Corzine, 43% Forrester. Today: 47% Christie, 45% Corzine, with 64% reporting. --SEAN TRENDE

8:57 -- Turnout in Bergen is down a bit, but Corzine is presently running about 10% behind his 2005 totals there as well. Daggett is looking weak. --SEAN TRENDE

8:57 -- Just got a good results page for New Jersey from reader JM. Right now, turnout in Hudson is looking to be down about 1/4 from 2005, and Corzine is doing about 8 points worse. --SEAN TRENDE

8:54 -- Also note that Obama voters only made up 44% of the electorate, and that Obama has a 49% approval rating in the Commonwealth. --SEAN TRENDE

8:50 -- McDonnell won 54% of the 18-29 vote, compared to 59% of the 65+ vote. Carried whites with about 2/3 of the vote. Also 2/3 of Independents, 46% of moderates, and 12% of Obama voters. --SEAN TRENDE

8:43 -- Republicans aren't the only ones spouting the message that increased spending in Washington is partially hurting Democrats today. In an interview with RCP earlier today, former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder (D) said, "They need to get their act together in Washington ... The message is not out there for fiscal discipline. It's just the opposite." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:45 -- Daggett is the obvious wild card tonight. The CW on who he hurts most has changed as the race progressed. One factor that will affect his totals is ballot position: different counties have different ballot designs, making it easier or harder to find his name depending on where you vote -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:44 -- A Republican election lawyer working for the Christie campaign told RCP last night that if tonight's margin of victory is 10,000 votes or less, we should expect the losing candidate to request a recount -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:41 -- The Board of Elections website has McDonnell winning with 85% of the vote, 2.8M votes, to 500k votes. I think someone forgot a comma somewhere. --SEAN TRENDE

8:40 -- Many comparisons being made already to the 1981 New Jersey race decided by under 1,800 votes. That was the last time a recount was requested -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:33 -- In New Jersey, with 1% of precincts in, Christie has a 10 point lead. Unfortunately, NJ.com doesn't have the results broken down by county, so I have no idea what to make of this. --SEAN TRENDE

8:30 -- Rep. Eric Cantor, on stage now, says, "Bob McDonnell has led us to victory after eight dark years in the wilderness. Bob ran a great campaign, but it was also a positive campaign," as opposed to Deeds. Cantor also takes a shot at Kaine, saying McDonnell will be a "full-time governor." McDonnell is scheduled to deliver his victory speech at 9:30 ET. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:22 -- Wow. In 2008, 90,000 people voted in the City of Richmond, and they broke 79%-20% for Obama. With 97% of the precincts in, Deeds is carrying Richmond 68%-32%, and only 30,000 people have voted. Put differently, McDonnell is off 9,000 voters from McCain's totals, but Deeds is off about 40,000 from Obama's. --SEAN TRENDE

8:17 -- With half the precincts in, McDonnell is leading 61%-39%. The majority-black 3d district is 51% in, and breaking 66%-33% for Deeds. Portsmouth and Norfolk aren't in, but City of Richmond is. --SEAN TRENDE

8:13 -- RNC Chairman Steele releases statement on Virginia win that reads, in part, "The Republican Party's overwhelming victory in Virginia is a blow to President Obama and the Democrat Party. It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president's liberal agenda." --TOM BEVAN

8:11 -- No results in from New Jersey, where the polls closed around 11 minutes ago. --SEAN TRENDE

8:08 -- McDonnell ran about 10 points ahead of Allen in New Kent County (exurban Richmond/Tidewater). If that continues to hold, it would put McDonnell's final number at around 58% or so. I think we're headed toward more like 56% for McDonnell. -- SEAN TRENDE

8:06 -- With 5% of the vote in, McDonnell is currently carrying Fairfax County.  Deeds is running about 7 points behind Jim Webb in Arlington County, with 60% of the vote in there.  -- SEAN TRENDE

8:03 -- Exit polls showing that Christie got 58% of the independent vote in New Jersey, with Corzine taking 33%.  It's difficult to see Corzine winning if those numbers are right. -- SEAN TRENDE

8:02 -- There's no activity to speak of at Gov. Jon Corzine's election night HQ. The press is listening to smooth jazz play as a photo slideshow plays on a big screen in the ballroom. Folks settling in for what could be a long night -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:01 --With 1/3 of the votes in, he's got 62.5% of the vote, so Deeds would have had to have won the rest of the state 57-43 to win. McDonnell is carrying the 10th and 11th (NoVa outside of Arlington/Alexandria), so that seems unlikely -- SEAN TRENDE

8:00 -- House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who represents part of Richmond, is scheduled to speak on stage in 20 minutes. He's currently doing TV interviews just outside the press ring. The crowd is now watching itself on FOX News. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:59 -- Crowd is going crazy as FOX News and NBC project McDonnell as the winner. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:49 -- With over 20% in, McDonnell is still at about 65% of the vote.  BUT there are still no votes in from the 11th district, and few from the heavily Dem 3d and 8th.  Heavily R 5th, 6th and 9th are coming in right now.  Expect this to close (though not nearly enough for Deeds to win) -- SEAN TRENDE

7:40 -- RNC Chair Steele just left the stage after a rousing speech to the chatty and smiling crowd. "Freedom is alive in Virginia tonight because of what you've done," Steele said. "Virginia, America is proud of you tonight, and as your Republican National chairman, I'm espcially humbled and proud." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:32 - Exit polls in Virginia are showing most voters didn't take this as a referendum on Obama.  That may be the case, but it is also difficult to ascribe what's looking to be a sizeable shift in the electorate from 2008 to purely local issues and turnout. --SEAN TRENDE

7:30 - With 5% in, all three Republicans are still pulling about 65% of the vote.  Not many returns in from NoVa yet. --SEAN TRENDE

7:25 - RGA Chair Haley Barbour is addressing the crowd now. "Is this sweet or what?!" Barbour said as he stepped to the microphone. In an earlier interview with RCP, Barbour said tonight's election results "can be a springboard" for 2010, with candidate recruitment the most important repercussion. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:24 - Deeds is doing well in Buchanan county, with 10% of the precincts in.  Buchanan went 55-44 for Webb, so it isn't a huge surprise to see him doing alright there. --SEAN TRENDE

7:21 - The rehabilitation of Eliot Spitzer continues - he's a guest analyst on MSNBC. Egad. - TOM BEVAN

7:19 - With 1% of the precincts in, all the GOP candidates are getting 2/3 of the vote or so.  All of these are in South or Southwest VA, which is typically a GOP stronghold.  Only exception is Mark Warner, who ran well in this area. Obviously Creigh Deeds is not going to take the "Mark Warner" path to victory. --SEAN TRENDE

7:12 -- Still early in Virginia, but we know who the statewide winners are: McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli. The question is by what margin. No returns yet, but we'll update you as they come in. --SEAN TRENDE

7:11 -- Local TV reports are that Gov. Tim Kaine, also chairman of the DNC, spent the day hiking, rather than helping Deeds get out the vote. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:09 -- Here in Richmond, Republicans are crowding into the McDonnell election night headquarters, at the downtown Marriott. Republicans are expecting a big win tonight, and party bosses such as RNC chair Michael Steele and RGA chair Haley Barbour (Miss.) are in attendance. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

The five (obvious) lessons of election '09:

(1) New York 23rd offers the most visible lesson: conservatives have a line in the sand and they will stand it. This race was indeed odd. Republican Dede Scozzafava was a bad candidate (and more liberal than any likely GOP candidate next year). The circumstances in which she was chosen were unusual. But perception is reality in politics. And if the right wins, it will be inspired. Moderate Republican radar is already up for 2010. Related perennial lesson: a party moving too far from its base can break its bonds with that base.

(2) The GOP moderate campaign is alive. Bob McDonnell is a conservative who ran down the middle. National themes campaigned on: jobs, taxes and economic development. The social conservative avoided social issues. He asked Sarah Palin to stay out. He stayed optimistic. “Yes we can,” was heard at McDonnell rallies.

(3) Surprise, Virginia is a purple state. McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds both campaigned as moderates. So has every Democrat elected governor or senator in recent years (Kaine, Warner, Webb). Of the 10 most recent governors, half were Republicans and half were Democrats.

(4) Obama's coattails are trim. Look to New Jersey. Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine ran toward Obama's image for shelter from his own. And it's still raining. Whether Corzine pulls it out or not, the presidents three trips to New Jersey showed no ripple effect. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had this problem in their first year. But that will not ease Obama's pain. Starting Wednesday, this White House may find it a little harder to give Democratic moderates the full court press.

(5) Independents are fickle. Really, did we need 2009 to teach us this? No. It's why they are independents. And when their ranks are at historic levels, there are more fickle voters. That means there are more voters who can shift the electoral tide. Obama realizes Democrats' ties with the big middle are strained. Polls have shown it for months. But, there is nothing like an election to bring the point home.

The new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows President Obama's approval rating ticking down ever so slightly over the last three weeks, with 54% approving and 45% disapproving, compared to ratings of 55/43 from CNN's last survey on October 16-18. And it's an even further decline from the results from CNN's poll from September 11-13, when Obama was at 58% approval rating and a 40% disapproval rating.

Why mention the September results? Because that was the last time CNN probed approval of Obama's handling of specific issues.  And its here that you can see how much ground he's lost with the public over the last six weeks.

Obama has lost a net of 19 points in support of his handling of health care (see the numbers below); 17 points on his handling of the economy; 17 points on Afghanistan; 16 points foreign affairs; 16 points on the federal budget deficit; and 10 points on taxes.

In fact, of all the issues listed above (which were the only ones asked on both the September 11-13 and current Oct 30-Nov 1 surveys), Obama maintains majority support on only one: 51% still approve of his handling of foreign affairs. On every other issue Obama has lost the majority:

Afghanistan: 42% (-7 vs. last survey Sept 11-13)/ 56% (+10)
Budget Deficit: 39% (-7)/ 60% (+9)
Economy: 46% approve (-8) / 54% disapprove (+9)
Foreign Affairs: 51% (-7)/ 47% (+9)
Health Care: 42% (-9) / 57% (+10)
Taxes: 49% (-3) / 50% (+7)

Again, for a true apples-to-apples comparison, you have to look at Obama's overall approval rating on September 11-13 (58/40) versus where it is in the current survey (54/45). That's a net negative swing of 9 points.

Overall, Obama's job approval rating in the RCP Average stands at 51.6%.

Obviously the topline numbers in the "Big 3" races are key.  But here's a few other things I'll be keeping an eye on:

(1) Fairfax County, VA.  The big story in Virginia over the past decade has been Northern Virginia's slow movement toward the Democrats, which accelerated in the latter part of the decade.  Some of this movement is undoubtedly "real," as the county becomes more diverse and more "city-like."  But I've suspected that a good portion of it was more of a reaction toward George W. Bush's Presidency than real affection for Democrats.  This race is only one datapoint, but it may well be an important datapoint pointing toward slower movement toward Democrats.

(2) CA-10.  This race has received surprisingly little scrutiny.  The Lieutenant Governor of California, John Garamendi, should win this D+11 district walking away.  But the one SUSA poll conducted showed him leading a relatively unknown Republican 50%-40%, and the four major Democratic candidates totalled only 56% of the vote in the open primary election.   If the national mood really is swinging heavily against Democrats, then this oddly-shaped suburban district is exactly the type of district that I would expect Republicans to make gains in (and by gains I don't necessarily mean an outright win).  If Garamendi falls below, say, 54%, it isn't a great sign for Democrats.

(3) New Jersey Assembly races.  The bizarre 3-way race at the top of the ballot makes it hard to draw any firm conclusions about any outcome of the race.  Keep an eye on the downballot races here to get a sense of where the state is really pointing.

(4) Chapel Hill Mayor's race.  Chapel Hill is the Berkeley of North Carolina, has always been the Berkeley of North Carolina, and it hasn't elected a Republican to its town council in over a century.  It won't do that this time either, but there is an Independent candidate who, by Chapel Hill standards, is an outright conservative who is in a dogfight for the mayor's race.  Matt Czajkowski is running on issues like enforcing the town's loitering and panhandling ordinance, lowering property taxes, and enabling development.  Czajkowski voted for Obama, so I don't want to overstate this race as a sign of a Republican upswing in Chapel Hill.  But the fact that he's competitive in this race is more of a signal of just how sour the mood is in the country right now, and how focused people are on economic issues this cycle.