The five (obvious) lessons of election '09:

(1) New York 23rd offers the most visible lesson: conservatives have a line in the sand and they will stand it. This race was indeed odd. Republican Dede Scozzafava was a bad candidate (and more liberal than any likely GOP candidate next year). The circumstances in which she was chosen were unusual. But perception is reality in politics. And if the right wins, it will be inspired. Moderate Republican radar is already up for 2010. Related perennial lesson: a party moving too far from its base can break its bonds with that base.

(2) The GOP moderate campaign is alive. Bob McDonnell is a conservative who ran down the middle. National themes campaigned on: jobs, taxes and economic development. The social conservative avoided social issues. He asked Sarah Palin to stay out. He stayed optimistic. “Yes we can,” was heard at McDonnell rallies.

(3) Surprise, Virginia is a purple state. McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds both campaigned as moderates. So has every Democrat elected governor or senator in recent years (Kaine, Warner, Webb). Of the 10 most recent governors, half were Republicans and half were Democrats.

(4) Obama's coattails are trim. Look to New Jersey. Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine ran toward Obama's image for shelter from his own. And it's still raining. Whether Corzine pulls it out or not, the presidents three trips to New Jersey showed no ripple effect. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had this problem in their first year. But that will not ease Obama's pain. Starting Wednesday, this White House may find it a little harder to give Democratic moderates the full court press.

(5) Independents are fickle. Really, did we need 2009 to teach us this? No. It's why they are independents. And when their ranks are at historic levels, there are more fickle voters. That means there are more voters who can shift the electoral tide. Obama realizes Democrats' ties with the big middle are strained. Polls have shown it for months. But, there is nothing like an election to bring the point home.