Comment and analysis on tonight's elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York:

12:02 -- FOX declares the race for Owens. With 71% in, Maine looks to be overriding the legislature's decision to allow gay marriage in the state, though it's still too close to call. And finally, with 23% reporting, John Garamendi's lead has shrunk ever-so-slightly to 55.6%-39.8%. With that, we'll call it a night. Thanks for following. If you want to stick around to the bitter end (or are on the West Coast), you can look at these sites here and here. -- SEAN TRENDE

11:57 -- A tale of two Democratic pollsters in the New Jersey race. PPP's final poll had Christie winning this race by 6 points - one of the highest spreads for Christie among all posters out there, but now we also know it was the most accurate preelection number of the lot. Meanwhile, Dem Corps showed a Corzine +4 victory - the highest margin of any pollster projecting a Corzine win, which also turned out to be the most inaccurate of the entire bunch. One pollster gets a gold star, the other has egg on their face. -- TOM BEVAN

11:40 -- Oswego County just came in. All that's left are precincts in St. Lawrence County, which Owens is carrying 55%-40% right now. Unless Hoffman has some huge stash of conservative precincts in St. Lawrence County, its over. --SEAN TRENDE

11:38 -- Don't forget about California. With 22% reporting, John Garamendi is winning 56%-40%. No huge surprise there. --SEAN TRENDE

11:37 -- With 2/3 in, the Maine same-sex marriage law is losing, 51.6%-48.4%. The trend line is not encouraging for supporters of gay marriage - unless Bangor is still out. --SEAN TRENDE

11:34 -- Last word on Virginia for tonight:  Looks like McDonnell narrowly carried Fairfax County.  --SEAN TRENDE

11:30 -- Erick Erickson is claiming that Hoffman is going to win. He'd need 55% of the votes in the remaining precincts. I guess it depends which precincts are left. There's about 50 in Oswego and 50 in St. Lawrence. One's a Hoffman county and one's an Owens county, but what really matters is which precincts remain. --SEAN TRENDE

11:27 -- With 97% in, its looking like a 4.5% win for Christie in New Jersey. Republicans had quite a few near misses in the Assembly, but it looks like the Democrats will hold serve. --SEAN TRENDE

11:24 -- A somewhat stunning fact: by January, the governorship in NJ will have changed hands 8 times in 9 years. -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:21 -- For those keeping score in Virginia, it looks like Republicans have picked up five seats in the House of Delegates, with one seat uncalled. Bob McDonnell's margin right now is 58.69%-41.2%. Looking at the scattering of remaining districts, it looks like that will hold. If he stays above 58.3%, he will have the highest percentage of victory for any Republican Governor in the state's history, and will have scored the highest percentage for any Governor since Albertis S. Harrison, Jr., got 63.8 percent against poor H. Clyde Pearson in 1961. --SEAN TRENDE

11:17 -- Chant at Christie HQ: "Yes we did!" -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:16 -- Gay marriage is losing in Maine, 51-49%, with 56% reporting. Again, without knowing which counties are in its hard to predict anything. SEAN TRENDE

11:12 -- Release of the moment: "DGA looks ahead to 2010 election cycle" -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:10 -- The remaining ballots will have to break 55% to Hoffman in order for him to win. --SEAN TRENDE

11:09 -- Asked if the White House will weigh in with a statement on tonight's races, a spokesperson replies simply: "No." -- MIKE MEMOLI

11:08 -- Mayor of Watertown says Hoffman has lost. Still some ballots to be counted, but I'd say about a 70% chance Owens is the first Congressman to represent Saint Lawrence and Franklin Counties since the 1850s. --SEAN TRENDE

11:05 -- Aaaaand, with 46% reporting, gay marriage looks to be losing in Maine, 50.2-49.8%. --SEAN TRENDE

11:04 -- DGA exec. dir. Nathan Daschle: "While this certainly isn't the outcome we hoped for, New Jersey is a better place because of [Corzine's] tough choices. We also congratulate Chris Christie on tonight's victory, and we wish him the best in these next four years." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

11:01 -- Owens is actually running behind Obama in a lot of these counties. Interesting. --SEAN TRENDE

10:58 -- Things aren't as great for Democrats in upstate NY as I thought. Clinton, Essex and Franklin counties, the Democratic strongholds, are largely in. Fulton County, which went for McCain with 54% of the vote, isn't in yet. Lewis County, another 54% McCain county is still out. On the other hand, St. Lawrence County, a 58% Obama County, is only half in. I guess it depends what happens in those counties and in the remainder of Oswego County. Still not great news for Hoffman, though. --SEAN TRENDE

10:57 -- Tim Pawlenty, tying himself to RGA's efforts for Chris Christie: "I'm thrilled our historic team-effort paid off." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:56 -- Corzine says he called Christie to congratulate him, and he was "gracious in response." Will work hard for smooth transition. --MIKE MEMOLI

10:55 -- A political junkie's best friend: county-by-county results in NY-23. --SEAN TRENDE

10:54 -- DNC Chair Tim Kaine seemed to know what would happen tonight...on Monday. In an interview on MSNBC yesterday, Kaine said: "We think the story may well be the special congressional race -- NY-23. You have a Republican Party that has put nearly a million dollars into their nominee's race...and she has now endorsed the Democratic candidate. I think that's going to be the continuing story tomorrow night." That's certainly a better story than the Dems losing NJ and VA. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:49 -- Gov. Jon Corzine is said to be on his way to the ballroom. -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:47 -- With 37% reporting, gay marriage is staying alive in Maine by 37 votes right now. I'd guess that a lot of the outstanding votes are from rural precincts, which probably bodes well for overturning the legislature's allowance of gay marriage. --SEAN TRENDE

10:46 -- For what it's worth, Corzine has pulled ahead in Bergen County. Which may just mean we can stop saying, "No Republican has won New Jersey without winning Bergen County." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:45 -- Apparently Syracuse area is coming in. I think Hoffman's probably going to lose. --SEAN TRENDE

10:42 -- Hoffman's in real trouble in upstate New York. He'd have to carry the remaining portion of the district with about 54% of the two-party vote in order to win. Its frustrating not knowing where the remaining votes are located. --SEAN TRENDE

10:39 -- Asked if he'd think of running for governor in 4 years, Rothman says: "If there's an opportunity to help the people of the entire state someday, I'd certainly consider that." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:38 -- More from Rep. Rothman (D): "I wish the best to Chris Christie, our next governor." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:34 -- Rep. Rothman sounds more realistic. "I'd like to believe there's still some hope, but all the evidence appears to be to the contrary," he tells RCP -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:33 -- With 40% reporting, Owens (D) is leading Hoffman 50%-45%. A lot depends on what precincts are in and what precincts are not. If the remaining precincts are in the Syracuse area, and the Northeast is in, then its OK for Hoffman. Otherwise, its bad news for the conservative. In other news, the gay marriage question is still neck-in-neck in Maine, with the "legislature got it right" answer on top. -- SEAN TRENDE

10:29 -- NYT still has Bloomberg as the winner, up 3% with 76% in. --SEAN TRENDE

10:27 -- At Corzine HQ, Rep. Rush Holt says one should be "very careful" about calling this prematurely. -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:26 -- NBC withdraws its call for Bloomberg. Whoa. --SEAN TRENDE

10:22 -- It may only stay this way for a moment, but right now the gay marriage question in Maine is split 50.0 in favor and 50.0 against - the two sides are currently separated by just 79 votes out of more than 134,000 cast. --TOM BEVAN

10:19 -- RGA release: "Defeating a deep-pocketed incumbent in a Democratic state like New Jersey is a tremendous accomplishment and signals the beginning of the GOP's comeback." -- MIKE MEMOLI

10:17 -- The race the conservative movement cares about the most, NY-23, doesn't look to be going so well for Doug Hoffman. With 27% reporting, Owens leads 50.6% to 44.4% (with 5.1% for the candidate who dropped out. I guess these are the people who tell SurveyUSA that they've already voted, but are still undecided). --SEAN TRENDE

10:13 -- AP calls NJ for Christie. -- TOM BEVAN

10:11 -- 21% reporting in NY23 and Democrat Bill Owens is up 8. No sense of which votes are in and which are still out. --TOM BEVAN

10:07 -- 22% reporting in Maine and the "Nos" (those who don't want to repeal the gay marriage law) are hanging on to a slim 51-49 lead. --TOM BEVAN

10:02 -- Virginia is looking to be a pretty big win for McDonnell -- probably about 58%-59%, higher than I'd predicted. Looking at Virginia Democrats, McDonnell won 62% in Glenn Nye's district (VA-02), 61% in Tom Periello's district (VA-05), 68% in Rick Boucher's district (VA-09), and currently 55% in Gerry Connolley's district (VA-11), though I think that'll shrink. Watch them closely on the health care vote. --SEAN TRENDE

10:00 -- On Twitter, RNC Chair Michael Steele announces he's New Jersey-bound -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:58 -- Some math here. Corzine trails by about 100,000 votes, with 66% reporting. Where does he make up that 100K? The big money districts for Dems are Camden, Essex and Hudson. Camden is 2/3 in with 70k votes. Give Corzine the rest of the votes and its about 30k votes. Do this type of analysis with Hudson and Essex and you get 50k or so for Hudson and 13k for Essex, which gets him his 100k. But there's still Republican counties out there, and Corzine isn't going to get 100% of those votes (probably). --SEAN TRENDE

9:55 -- A GOP source in Bergen sends these updated numbers from key NJ county: 84% reporting, Christie has 650-vote edge -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:54 -- Corzine music update: "It's Not Over" replaces NJN feed. --MIKE MEMOLI

9:54 -- According to Virginia blogger Not Larry Sabato, with three races uncalled, Democrats are down four seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. If they lose five seats, I think they'll breathe a sigh of relief. --SEAN TRENDE

9:51 -- Nearly an hour after polls closed in NY, results for the 23rd are coming in at a snail's pace. The NYT page has 8% reporting, with Owens winning 53% to Hoffman's 42% and Scozzafava at 4%. But that's a total of less than 10,000 votes. Leaked exits (via Ben Smith's twitter account) had Hoffman leading Owens 50-47, with Scozzafava at 2.5%. At this rate, it'll be tomorrow before we know who won. --TOM BEVAN

9:46 -- NYT fixed Sussex County. 58% in, Christie leads by 90,000 votes. I don't think there's enough votes out there for Corzine to win. --SEAN TRENDE

9:45 -- Daggett takes stage. We don't know who won, "but we know it's not us." -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:43 -- Hudson County, where Corzine ran up huge margins in '05, reporting just 36% turnout tonight -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:40 -- Setting the scene at Corzine HQ: music turned off and NJN coverage being piped in. Much of the crowd is taking advantage of the cash bar and soggy water dogs outside the ballroom. -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:39 -- Corzine is getting his second wind. With 53% reporting, he's down 49.3%-44.7%. Lots of votes in heavily Dem counties (Hudson, Essex) still out. Nonetheless, Christie is ahead in Bergen county, the state's most populous, with 79% of precincts reporting. --SEAN TRENDE

9:38 -- In VA, with 91% reporting, McDonnell beating Deeds by 20 points - 60 to 40. He overperformed his average in the polls by about 5 1/2 points, while Deeds came in pretty close to spot on his number in the polls. SurveyUSA, which had McDonnell's lead the highest of any pollster at 18 points, looks to have nailed the result closest with its final poll of 58-40. -- TOM BEVAN

9:33 -- Great map of election results in Va. on the Virginia Public Access Project homepage. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:32 -- NYT is reporting Corzine carried Sussex County 64%-26%. A typo? In 2005 Corzine lost it 60-35. --SEAN TRENDE.

9:31 -- NJ Gov tightening. With 44% counted, Christie leads 49-44-6. Margin is 54,000 right now -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:30 -- McDonnell scored big victories in the crucial exurban counties of Loudoun and Prince William, which are populated by fiscally conservative Republicans who have swung to Democrats. Kaine won both counties in 2005. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:29 -- There's six counties in New Jersey with over half the precincts in. Corzine is running 7 points behind his 2005 totals in Gloucester, 6 behind in Cape May, 14 behind in Ocean, 13 in Monmouth, 10 in Hunterdon, and 7 in Hudson. --SEAN TRENDE

9:28 -- With just 13% reporting in Maine, 52.5% of voters are against repealing the state's recently passed law allowing gay marriage, while 47.5% are in favor. --TOM BEVAN

9:18 -- Another thought, stolen from Jay. Daggett is getting about 6% of the vote. An awful lot of people who don't like Corzine are going to have to vote for him in order for him to win. --SEAN TRENDE

9:19 -- From the NJN/Gannett exit poll: Obama has 57% job approval in NJ. Among those who approve, Corzine wins 75-17. Christie wins 88-7 among those who disapprove -- MIKE MEMOLI

9:17 -- Corzine would have to carry the rest of the state with about 53% of the two party vote in order to sweep the state. With most of the heavily Dem areas half in, this seems unlikely. --SEAN TRENDE

9:15 -- DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle released statement congratulating Deeds on his campaign: "With the worst recession since the Great Depression and history favoring the other side, we knew this race would be difficult...Sen. Deeds ran a strong campaign, despite all the headwinds he faced....We also congratulate Bob McDonnell on tonight's victory, and we wish him the best in these next four years." -- TOM BEVAN

9:13 -- Wow. Corzine is only carrying Camden County by 7 points. He carried it by 25 points in 2005. Still, only 16% of the precincts are in, so maybe its the more exurban portions of the county. - SEAN TRENDE

9:11 -- WaPo's Chris Cillizza: "Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters." -- TOM BEVAN

9:09 -- With 80% of the precincts in, McDonnell is up 60.5%-39.39%. The remaining precincts are largely in the 3d, 8th, 10th, and 11th, so McDonnell's total should come down some. Still, he's contending for the biggest victory margin since 1961, and the biggest win for a Republican ever. --SEAN TRENDE

9:04 -- In Virginia, the delegate races are looking like a disappointment for the GOP. If they split the remaining uncalled races, they'll have picked up 4-5 seats, which isn't bad, but isn't the tsunami they were hoping for. --SEAN TRENDE

9:03 -- In Virginia, exit polling shows McDonnell winning 66% of the white vote, compared to McCain winning 60% in the 2008 POTUS race. The breakdown of the African-American vote is basically identical (9% to McDonnell; 9% to McCain). The big swing from last year to this year is being driven in the increase in the white share of the total vote: 70% in 2008 versus 78% in 2009. -- JAY COST

9:01 -- In New Jersey, Daggett's numbers are lower than what he was polling - typical of the drop off that previous third party candidates often suffer (e.g. Nader in 2000 and Anderson in 1980). It's not yet clear who that favors, but so far Corzine is pulling in the same % as his job approval numbers in final polling. -- JAY COST

9:00 -- Polls closing now in New York. -- TOM BEVAN

8:59 -- Also, Gloucester County was right at the statewide result in 2005: 53% Corzine, 43% Forrester. Today: 47% Christie, 45% Corzine, with 64% reporting. --SEAN TRENDE

8:57 -- Turnout in Bergen is down a bit, but Corzine is presently running about 10% behind his 2005 totals there as well. Daggett is looking weak. --SEAN TRENDE

8:57 -- Just got a good results page for New Jersey from reader JM. Right now, turnout in Hudson is looking to be down about 1/4 from 2005, and Corzine is doing about 8 points worse. --SEAN TRENDE

8:54 -- Also note that Obama voters only made up 44% of the electorate, and that Obama has a 49% approval rating in the Commonwealth. --SEAN TRENDE

8:50 -- McDonnell won 54% of the 18-29 vote, compared to 59% of the 65+ vote. Carried whites with about 2/3 of the vote. Also 2/3 of Independents, 46% of moderates, and 12% of Obama voters. --SEAN TRENDE

8:43 -- Republicans aren't the only ones spouting the message that increased spending in Washington is partially hurting Democrats today. In an interview with RCP earlier today, former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder (D) said, "They need to get their act together in Washington ... The message is not out there for fiscal discipline. It's just the opposite." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:45 -- Daggett is the obvious wild card tonight. The CW on who he hurts most has changed as the race progressed. One factor that will affect his totals is ballot position: different counties have different ballot designs, making it easier or harder to find his name depending on where you vote -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:44 -- A Republican election lawyer working for the Christie campaign told RCP last night that if tonight's margin of victory is 10,000 votes or less, we should expect the losing candidate to request a recount -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:41 -- The Board of Elections website has McDonnell winning with 85% of the vote, 2.8M votes, to 500k votes. I think someone forgot a comma somewhere. --SEAN TRENDE

8:40 -- Many comparisons being made already to the 1981 New Jersey race decided by under 1,800 votes. That was the last time a recount was requested -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:33 -- In New Jersey, with 1% of precincts in, Christie has a 10 point lead. Unfortunately, NJ.com doesn't have the results broken down by county, so I have no idea what to make of this. --SEAN TRENDE

8:30 -- Rep. Eric Cantor, on stage now, says, "Bob McDonnell has led us to victory after eight dark years in the wilderness. Bob ran a great campaign, but it was also a positive campaign," as opposed to Deeds. Cantor also takes a shot at Kaine, saying McDonnell will be a "full-time governor." McDonnell is scheduled to deliver his victory speech at 9:30 ET. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:22 -- Wow. In 2008, 90,000 people voted in the City of Richmond, and they broke 79%-20% for Obama. With 97% of the precincts in, Deeds is carrying Richmond 68%-32%, and only 30,000 people have voted. Put differently, McDonnell is off 9,000 voters from McCain's totals, but Deeds is off about 40,000 from Obama's. --SEAN TRENDE

8:17 -- With half the precincts in, McDonnell is leading 61%-39%. The majority-black 3d district is 51% in, and breaking 66%-33% for Deeds. Portsmouth and Norfolk aren't in, but City of Richmond is. --SEAN TRENDE

8:13 -- RNC Chairman Steele releases statement on Virginia win that reads, in part, "The Republican Party's overwhelming victory in Virginia is a blow to President Obama and the Democrat Party. It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president's liberal agenda." --TOM BEVAN

8:11 -- No results in from New Jersey, where the polls closed around 11 minutes ago. --SEAN TRENDE

8:08 -- McDonnell ran about 10 points ahead of Allen in New Kent County (exurban Richmond/Tidewater). If that continues to hold, it would put McDonnell's final number at around 58% or so. I think we're headed toward more like 56% for McDonnell. -- SEAN TRENDE

8:06 -- With 5% of the vote in, McDonnell is currently carrying Fairfax County.  Deeds is running about 7 points behind Jim Webb in Arlington County, with 60% of the vote in there.  -- SEAN TRENDE

8:03 -- Exit polls showing that Christie got 58% of the independent vote in New Jersey, with Corzine taking 33%.  It's difficult to see Corzine winning if those numbers are right. -- SEAN TRENDE

8:02 -- There's no activity to speak of at Gov. Jon Corzine's election night HQ. The press is listening to smooth jazz play as a photo slideshow plays on a big screen in the ballroom. Folks settling in for what could be a long night -- MIKE MEMOLI

8:01 --With 1/3 of the votes in, he's got 62.5% of the vote, so Deeds would have had to have won the rest of the state 57-43 to win. McDonnell is carrying the 10th and 11th (NoVa outside of Arlington/Alexandria), so that seems unlikely -- SEAN TRENDE

8:00 -- House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who represents part of Richmond, is scheduled to speak on stage in 20 minutes. He's currently doing TV interviews just outside the press ring. The crowd is now watching itself on FOX News. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:59 -- Crowd is going crazy as FOX News and NBC project McDonnell as the winner. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:49 -- With over 20% in, McDonnell is still at about 65% of the vote.  BUT there are still no votes in from the 11th district, and few from the heavily Dem 3d and 8th.  Heavily R 5th, 6th and 9th are coming in right now.  Expect this to close (though not nearly enough for Deeds to win) -- SEAN TRENDE

7:40 -- RNC Chair Steele just left the stage after a rousing speech to the chatty and smiling crowd. "Freedom is alive in Virginia tonight because of what you've done," Steele said. "Virginia, America is proud of you tonight, and as your Republican National chairman, I'm espcially humbled and proud." --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:32 - Exit polls in Virginia are showing most voters didn't take this as a referendum on Obama.  That may be the case, but it is also difficult to ascribe what's looking to be a sizeable shift in the electorate from 2008 to purely local issues and turnout. --SEAN TRENDE

7:30 - With 5% in, all three Republicans are still pulling about 65% of the vote.  Not many returns in from NoVa yet. --SEAN TRENDE

7:25 - RGA Chair Haley Barbour is addressing the crowd now. "Is this sweet or what?!" Barbour said as he stepped to the microphone. In an earlier interview with RCP, Barbour said tonight's election results "can be a springboard" for 2010, with candidate recruitment the most important repercussion. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:24 - Deeds is doing well in Buchanan county, with 10% of the precincts in.  Buchanan went 55-44 for Webb, so it isn't a huge surprise to see him doing alright there. --SEAN TRENDE

7:21 - The rehabilitation of Eliot Spitzer continues - he's a guest analyst on MSNBC. Egad. - TOM BEVAN

7:19 - With 1% of the precincts in, all the GOP candidates are getting 2/3 of the vote or so.  All of these are in South or Southwest VA, which is typically a GOP stronghold.  Only exception is Mark Warner, who ran well in this area. Obviously Creigh Deeds is not going to take the "Mark Warner" path to victory. --SEAN TRENDE

7:12 -- Still early in Virginia, but we know who the statewide winners are: McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli. The question is by what margin. No returns yet, but we'll update you as they come in. --SEAN TRENDE

7:11 -- Local TV reports are that Gov. Tim Kaine, also chairman of the DNC, spent the day hiking, rather than helping Deeds get out the vote. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:09 -- Here in Richmond, Republicans are crowding into the McDonnell election night headquarters, at the downtown Marriott. Republicans are expecting a big win tonight, and party bosses such as RNC chair Michael Steele and RGA chair Haley Barbour (Miss.) are in attendance. --KYLE TRYGSTAD