New NJ Polls: Photo Finish
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Two more surveys out in New Jersey, both with different results. The takeaway: this race is likely within the margin of error.
Monmouth University/Gannett
(722 LVs, 10/31-11/1, +/- 3.7%)
Corzine 43 (+1 vs. last poll, 10/28-30)
Christie 41 (-2)
Daggett 8 (unch)
Don't Know 7 (+2)
SurveyUSA
(582 LVs*, 10/30-11/1, +/- 4.1%)
Christie 45 (+2 vs. last poll, 10/26-28)
Corzine 42 (-1)
Daggett 10 (-1)
Undecided 3 (unch)
Christie leads by 1.2 in the RCP Average of New Jersey.
"If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker," says Monmouth's Patrick Murray. Their polling sample has a lower GOP response rate than SurveyUSA's, though the latter has a higher Dem response rate as well.
SurveyUSA notes that the poll was in the field as New Jerseyans were glued to the World Series, and families were out trick-or-treating. "As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data." A warning sign, however: Christie's lead among independent voters has climbed from 12 to 30 points in a month. Corzine does lead, however, among those who say they have already voted.

