The latest SurveyUSA poll showing Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell with a 19% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (which would be the biggest win for any Virginia Governor of either party since 1961) has some interesting internals.  One of the strangest findings is that McDonnell is getting 31% of the African American vote.

Is this possible?  Well, the smart money would say no.  But if you want to construct an argument for SurveyUSA being correct, consider the following:

(1) In 2006, George Allen came about as close as he could have come to dropping an "n-bomb" on a person of color without actually saying that particular word.  Throughout the campaign, Democrats consistently brought up racial incidents in Allen's past.  And the Republican label was radioactive nationally.  Allen still got 15% of the black vote.

(2) Doug Wilder's (Virginia's first black governor and former mayor of Richmond) non-endorsement of Deeds has received a ton of attention.

(3) McDonnell has been competing quietly for the black vote in his commercials.  One advertisement has featured businesswoman Sheila Johnson, a Democrat who endorsed McDonnell, while another features numerous African American Deputy and Assistant Attorneys General.

If a Republican were to receive 31% of the black vote in Virginia, one would expect some combination of factors like those listed above.  That said, 31% would be a phenomenally high result for a Republican gubernatorial candidate anywhere, and SurveyUSA, for some reason, generally tends to show Republicans performing better among blacks than the final result shows -- witness October 2006 SurveyUSA polling showing a no-name Republican candidate receiving 21% of the black vote in the Tennessee gubernatorial race.  He eventually received 4% in actual voting.  Even if McDonnell eventually gets a more reasonable 20-25% of the black vote, it would be an outstanding performance for a Republican, and one that would likely receive some national attention.

A new poll from SurveyUSA finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading the Virginia gubernatorial race by 19 points with 59% of the vote -- his highest tally in any general election poll (Oct. 17-19, 595 LV, MoE +/- 4%). The standout stat from the survey results is that 71% of independents support McDonnell.

McDonnell 59 (+5 vs. last poll, Oct. 5)
Deeds 40 (-3)
Und 1

McDonnell now leads by 10.9 points in the RCP Average for Virginia

Two other polls released in the last 24 hours found McDonnell's lead to be lower. A Clarus poll released this morning found McDonnell up 8 points, and a Christopher Newport University poll out last night had the Republican up 14 points.

Republican incumbent David Vitter leads his Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon by twelve points, 47.6% to 35.8%, according to a new poll by Southern Media and Opinion Research. 16.6% of those surveyed remain undecided.

The results are similar to a RasmussenReports poll from two weeks ago.

Gallup's new poll showing record support for legalizing pot arrived just as the Obama administration announced it would ease up on medical marijuana. Atty. General Holder said that the feds have better things to spend money on than going after people who use or sell medical marijuana under their state laws.

Fans of the War on Drugs see efforts to normalize medical marijuana as part of a strategy to legalize all marijuana. “By directing federal law enforcement officers to ignore federal drug laws, the administration is tacitly condoning the use of marijuana in the United States,” said Texas Republican  Lamar Smith.

I hope he's right. The Gallup poll, which found that four in 10 Americans want to legalize and tax marijuana, would lend credence to suspicions that the war on marijuana, at least, is on the ropes. But was anyone under the impression that the war was working in any sense?

Mexican drug gangs are now in Sequoia National Park, for heaven's sake, growing pot and spooking hikers. Marijuana is easier to buy in a schoolyard than cigarettes. The last three presidents have smoked it. Legalize pot and put the gangs out of business.

Then there's the money. The the ban on marijuana costs federal and state governments $7.7 billion a year for enforcement — and $6.2 billion in lost tax revenues. Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron explains the numbers.

If  Obama's new directive is a camel's nose going deeper under the tent of legalizing marijuana, then more power to the dromedary's schnoz.

www.fromaharrop.com

Charlie Cook offer some sage advice to Democrats on how they can "cut their losses" this cycle:

The best advice for Democrats would be to do whatever you are going to do on health care, get it done and then shift as quickly as possible to the economy and jobs, the things most voters are actually obsessing over.

While most economists believe the recession is over, more Americans believe it is not. Politically speaking, the recession isn't over until voters, not economists, say it's over.

Voters see the economy as jobs and disposable income. Every day spent on health care, climate change or virtually anything not directly and immediately involved in the economy and job creation is a minute spent ignoring what voters think really matters.

Actually, this isn't sage advice, it's just plain old common sense. The fact that the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress don't seem to recognize this and continue to obsess over passing monstrous health care and cap and trade bills - neither of which will create jobs - is baffling.

Democrats and the President can bleat about jobs "saved or created" thanks to the stimulus package until they're blue in the face, but the reality is that if unemployment is still topping 9% next Fall voters are going to take the President's party to the woodshed for having not done enough to create jobs and fix the economy.

A little blurb over the AP wire:

US President Barack Obama has not yet determined whether to make a decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan before the November 7 election runoff, a US official said Tuesday.

That's obviously not ideal for a President who is trying to stave off the growing perception that he's an indecisive ditherer.

With two weeks to go in the election for governor of Virginia, Bob McDonnell leads by 8 points in the latest Clarus Research poll (Oct. 18-19, 605 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Despite the Deeds campaign's targeting of women as it focused on McDonnell's 1989 thesis, McDonnell leads among women 45%-44%; and Deeds holds just a 7-point lead in Northern Virginia, where Democrats must win by substantial margins to be victorious statewide.

McDonnell 49 (+7 vs. last poll, Sept. 15)
Deeds 41 (+4)
Und 10 (-10)

Overall, McDonnell leads by 9.5 points in the RCP Average for Virginia Governor

A new Monmouth University poll for Gannett New Jersey has the state's gubernatorial race in a dead heat two weeks before voters head to the polls. Once again, it's independent candidate Chris Daggett whose numbers are growing, pulling both major party candidates below the 40 percent line.

General Election Matchup
Christie 39 (-4 from last poll, 9/24-29)
Corzine 39 (-1)
Daggett 14 (+6)
Don't Know 7 (-1)

Christie's lead in the RCP Average was just 0.8 percent through Monday.

Though the independent has gained the most, Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray says he may have hit his ceiling. Meanwhile, there are "warning signs" for the GOP.

"Democrats who flirted with Chris Christie earlier in the year have come back into the fold. It also looks like some GOP voters may have become disenchanted with their white knight. That's not a good sign for the Republican at this late stage of the game," Murray says in the poll release.

One criticism Christie has faced from both opponents is that he hasn't been specific enough about his budget proposals. It bears out somewhat in the numbers, as only 18 percent of voters say Christie has given a "clear" idea of his plans. That's nearly half as many as those who say Corzine has been clear on his plans for a second term. For the first time, voters lean toward Corzine, though by just a point, on who they'd trust most to handle the state budget. Corzine has also pulled to within one point of Christie on who would best handle jobs and the economy.

Most voters -- 72 percent, in fact -- characterize the race as being negative, and it shows as you look at the candidates' favorable ratings. Christie's rating is a net-negative for the first time in Monmouth's polling.

Favorable Rating
Corzine 37 / 51
Christie 40 / 41
Daggett 28 / 15

The telephone survey of 1,004 likely voters was conducted by telephone from October 15 to 18, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Christopher Newport University conducted a poll in the Virginia Governor's race, and found that Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 44.7% to 30.9%.  Part of the reason Deeds hasn't generated substantial traction in the race is demonstrated by the answers to the second question.  66.7% say that McDonnell's thesis won't affect their vote either way, while 2.3% say the thesis makes them more likely to vote for McDonnell.  Only 18.4% say the thesis made them less likely to vote for the former Attorney General.

Slight uptick in President Obama's job approval rating this month, according to ABC News/WaPo. Last month he was at 54% approve, 43% disapprove; this month he's at 57% approve, 40% disapprove.

Only 45% support the changes to health care proposed by Congress and the President, while 48% oppose the changes - and 36% strongly oppose them.

Support for a "public option" on health care clocks in at 57% according to the survey, though support for President Obama's handling of the issue is evenly divided at 48%.