Democrats are promoting a national survey released this afternoon by CNN/Opinion Research (Oct. 16-18, 1038 A, MoE +/- 3%), which finds 61% of Americans in favor of a government-run health insurance plan to compete with private insurance companies. The poll comes as the House and Senate are each merging separate health care reform bills for an eventual vote on the chamber floors.

At a morning press conference, CNN's Dana Bash asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid whether the fact that six-in-10 Americans approve of a public option has any effect on whether it would be included in the Senate plan. Reid refused to answer, as he remains deep in negotiations with Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), whose bill does not include the option, and Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who as the acting chairman of the HELP Committee included the option in his committee's bill.

The press conference was held to announce that Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy's (D-Vt.) Health Insurance Industry Antitrust Enforcement Act of 2009 will be introduced as an amendment to the eventual bill that reaches the Senate floor. The amendment would strip insurance companies of their antitrust exemption status, which Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) described as "an accident of American history."

Schumer said that in 40 states, two insurance companies dominate the market, allowing them to raise health care costs on consumers . "This exemption is antiquated, out of date, and doesn't belong," he said. "We can't pass effective health care reform if we don't hold health insurance companies to the same standards as other American industries."

The CNN poll found 49% favor President Obama's health care plan overall, while 49% oppose it. However, when asked which would be better for the country, passing a bill similar to Obama's plan or leaving the current system in place with no changes, 53% say Obama's plan would be better compared with 44% who say nothing should change.

The 61% of Americans in favor of the public option is up 5 points since late August.

In its latest survey of the New Jersey governor race, Rasmussen finds that the race has closed to just two points, and that independent Chris Daggett's supporters are increasingly committed to the candidate.

General Election Matchup
Christie 41 (-4 from last poll, 10/14)
Corzine 39 (-2)
Daggett 11 (+2)
Not Sure 8 (+3)

Christie leads by just 0.4 percent in the RCP polling average of New Jersey.

The biggest climber since last week's survey are those undecided voters. Rasmussen says that in that group, 13 percent lean toward Daggett, 7 percent toward Christie, and 3 percent toward Corzine, with the rest likely not to vote at all. The bottom line:

At this point, anybody who says with confidence how this race will turn out is either deluding themselves or attempting to delude someone else. The Democrats clearly have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to turnout, but the wavering Daggett supporters and undecided voters are more likely to head in the Republican direction than to the Democratic incumbent.

With two weeks out, only six points separates the three candidates in terms of favorable ratings.

Favorable Ratings
Christie 47 / 47
Corzine 41 / 57
Daggett 44 / 32

President Obama, who campaigns with Corzine today, has a 53 percent approval rating in the Garden State, a drop of 4 points since last week. That's still 12 points higher than Corzine's, however, at 41 percent; 58 percent disapprove.

The automated telephone survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

This hurts just reading about it:

While recent evidence shows South Florida's home values have begun to flatten out, a new forecast says prices of single-family homes will take another serious tumble in the year to come.

And, among 381 metropolitan areas ranked nationwide, Miami will be the biggest loser, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm.

The firm predicts Miami home values will plunge another 29.9 percent by June 2010, on top of price declines of 48 percent since peaking in 2006. Orlando fared second-worse, with values shrinking 27 percent. Prices are forecast to fall another 26 percent in Fort Lauderdale.

Yet another new poll finds Virginia gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds (D) trailing his Republican opponent by double digits. This one is from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, which finds Deeds down 12 points with less than two weeks to go until the election.

The survey falls in line with other polls released this week in Virginia, including one from SurveyUSA that found Bob McDonnell (R) leading by 19 points. No one expects the margin to be that high, but even Bill Clinton couldn't help but mention Deeds's poor poll positioning while speaking with the Democratic nominee yesterday at a Northern Virginia rally.

On the way to help as well is President Obama, who appears in a new TV ad launched today by the Deeds campaign and will stump for Deeds next week. The campaign announced this morning that Obama's previously-announced Oct. 27 event will take place at Old Dominion University in Norfolk -- home to large numbers of black voters who turned out en masse for Obama last year.

The event is part of an effort by the Deeds campaign and the Democratic National Committee to energize these so-called "surge voters," or "sleeping giants" as the campaign calls them, who so far have proved apathetic -- at least according to polls released this month.

"Last year, Virginia, you helped lead a movement of Americans who believed that their voices could make a difference," Obama says in the ad, which uses a clip of him from an August rally in Northern Virginia. "That's what we need to do in this race. That's what Creigh Deeds is committed to. I need every one of you to get fired up once again so that we can go towards the future, with Creigh Deeds leading the great Commonwealth of Virginia."

Here is the ad:

McDonnell leads by 10.9 points in the RCP Average for Virginia. The PPP poll was not included in the average, as partisan-affiliated polling firms will not be added to the Averages in the last two weeks of the 2009 elections.

ABC's Jonathan Karl captured yesterday what has become the scuttlebutt in diplomatic circles of late: John Kerry has taken on an unusually prominent role in Barack Obama's foreign policy, even in the context of his role as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Over the last five days in Afghanistan, John Kerry acted more like a Secretary of State than a Senator, playing the central role in brokering an agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai to accept a new presidential election.

As Kerry engaged in shuttle diplomacy – going back and forth between the Karzai and Abdullah camps and between Afghanistan and Pakistan – top Obama administration officials, including Hillary Clinton and Richard Holbrooke were thousands of miles away in Washington.

An AP story today backs up Karl's reporting. And if you wish to know the White House's view of Kerry's billing, check out this possible Freudian slip Politico caught this morning:

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs accidentally gave Kerry a new title during a conversation with reporters Wednesday morning.

Explaining how Kerry assumed such a prominent role in negotiating with the Afghan government, Gibbs said: “Well understand that Secretary Kerry, uh, Sen. Kerry was on a prearranged CODEL to the region… Kerry was viewed as a possible nominee for secretary of State before President Obama selected then-Sen. Hillary Clinton for the job.

Here's a tiny nugget of irony. As a candidate Barack Obama went out of his way to try and co-opt the Presidential Seal. So now that's he actually President, why is he still using his campaign logo on basketballs he's giving as gifts to foreign dignitaries?

Guess who won't be making an appearance with President Obama when he makes a return trip to Florida next week?

That's right, Governor - and now Republican candidate for the United States Senate - Charlie Crist. Crist's opponent Marco Rubio has been bludgeoning the Governor for embracing President Obama on his last trip to Florida in early February promoting the $787 billion stimulus package that passed Congress.

And by the looks of the latest poll in Florida, it's been working.

Crist might have also noticed that, according to the same poll, only 13% of Republicans in Florida approve of the job Obama is doing as President. No wonder he'll be extra busy next week.

In the race for mayor of my hometown of Seattle - one of the most liberal and environmentally conscious cities in America - the latest poll shows businessman Joe Mallahan surging to a 7-point lead over community organizer and environmental activist Mike McGinn.

Quinnipiac's latest survey of the New York Govenor's race shows Andrew Cuomo continuing to dominate incumbent David Paterson in a head to head Democratic primary. Cuomo beats Paterson 61 to 19 in the current survey versus a 61 to 15 lead back in mid-August.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani wins easily over Rick Lazio, 74-9, with 14 percent undecided.

In hypothetical general election match ups, Cuomo bests both Republicans, while Paterson loses to Giuliani and can muster only a tie against Lazio:

Cuomo (D) 50
Giuliani (R) 40

Cuomo (D) 61
Lazio (R) 22

Paterson (D) 38
Lazio (R) 38

Giuliani (R) 54
Paterson (D) 32

Other notables from the poll: only 23% say Governor Paterson deserves to be reelected, and his job approval rating is a dismal 30%, Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's job approval is even lower at 28% - but 48% don't know enough about her to have an opinion. 62% approve of the way Democratic Senator Charles Schumer is doing his job, and 62% also approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President.

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Republican Senate primary shows conservative Marco Rubio making some headway against popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist, though still trailing by a decent margin.

On August 19 Crist's lead over Rubio was 55 to 26. In the current survey Crist has slipped to 50% support while Rubio has jumped t0 35%.

In the general election match-ups, Crist thumps likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek by 20 points while Rubio trails Meek slightly:

Crist (R) 51
Meek (D) 31
Undecided 14

Meek (D) 36
Rubio (R) 33
Undecided 28

In the race for Governor, Republican Bill McCollum is maintaining a small lead over Democrat Alex Sink, though nearly one third of voters are undecided:

McCollum (R) 36 (-2 vs. last poll)
Sink (D) 32 (-2)
Undecided 27 (+2)

Also of note: Crist's job approval is at 59%; President Barack Obama's job approval is at 48%; and Democratic Senator Bill Nelson's job approval is at 45%,