A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D) by 10 points, his smallest margin this week (Oct. 26-28, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%).

McDonnell 54
Deeds 44
Und 2

McDonnell leads by 14.3 points in the RCP Average for Virginia

With four days left for a comeback in the Virginia gubernatorial race, the Deeds campaign says it's dispersing field volunteers to knock on 175,000 doors this weekend and 200,000 doors Tuesday, as it seeks out those voters who came out for Pres. Obama last year.

Phil Gunson of the Miami Herald reports of unrest in Venezuela:

Turn out the lights, shorten the shower to three minutes, buy a portable generator.

That is President Hugo Chavez's message to the citizens of energy-rich Venezuela, where the "socialist revolution" has brought power cuts, water shortages and collapsing public services.

Despite the shortages and rampant corruption (a former energy minister guessed that 75 out of every 100 dollars supposedly being spent on energy ends up in the pockets of politicians instead), there doesn't appear to be any political opposition in a position to take advantage of the unrest.

Gunson's piece concludes:

Luis Tascón, the pro-Chávez legislator, is confident that, despite recent setbacks, the government has a good chance of retaining the crucial two-thirds majority, which allows it to legislate without negotiating with the opposition.

"There are 17 [out of 24] states in which chavismo is virtually the only alternative,'' the legislator said. When it comes to recovering popularity, ``the government has a much better chance than the opposition.''

The latest FDU Public Mind poll (10/22-28, 694 LVs, +/- 4%) finds different results based on whether Chris Daggett, the independent candidate, is included in a three-person horse race or left unmentioned, leaving respondents to either volunteer his name or choose from the major party candidates.

General Election Matchup (Daggett Included)
Christie (R) 41 (+4 from last poll, 9/28-10/5)
Corzine (D) 39 (+1)
Daggett (I) 14 (-3)
Don't Know 3 (-3)

General Election Matchup (Daggett Volunteered)
Corzine 44 (unch)
Christie 43 (unch)
Daggett 6 (+2)
Don't Know 4 (-1)

Corzine leads in the RCP Average by 1.3 percent.

In just a month Daggett's name recognition has gone from 50 percent to 82 percent, but as with other recent surveys, his numbers appear to be slipping. When the name of another independent candidate, Gary Steele, is included, Corzine leads 46-41, with Steele at 3 percent.

Corzine's job approval rating is 37 percent, with 52 percent disapproving. To get a sense of the makeup of Daggett supporters, 0 percent -- that's right, 0 -- say Corzine is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as governor, while 46 percent say he's doing only a fair job and 54 percent say poor.

President Obama's job approval rating is 52 percent in the Garden State, while 37 percent disapprove.

In just a week, SurveyUSA (10/26-28, 640 LVs*, +/- 4%) shows that independent Chris Daggett's support has taken a real hit as voters seem to be settling in on the two major party candidates.

General Election Mathchup
Christie (R) 43 (+2 vs. last poll, 10/19-21)
Corzine (D) 43 (+4)
Daggett (I) 11 (-8)
Undecided 3 (+2)

A very interesting number in the crosstabs which could signal Daggett's true support. Among the 11 percent of this sample which has already voted, 45 percent cast a ballot for Corzine, 37 percent for Christie and only 8 percent for Daggett. It stands to reason that those who may ultimately choose him will wait until the final day to make that decision, or perhaps not vote at all.

Again, Corzine holds a lead in the all-important Springsteen demographic, 50-34 percent. Christie's voters are slightly more enthusiastic about their choice, with 50 percent saying they have no reservations about picking the Republican, while only 43 percent say that about Corzine.

With this result, Corzine jumps back up to +2.0 in the RCP Average of New Jersey.

We're going to see a couple polls a day before Election Day next Tuesday. Two polls out today sponsored by liberal interests show two different results, one with Gov. Jon Corzine comfortably ahead, one with Chris Christie holding on to a small lead. What does that mean? At this point the cliche that turnout will be key to victory is as true as it gets. And, the Daggett factor could swing the race on way or another.

Research 2000/Daily Kos
(10/26-28, 600 LVs, +/- 4%)
Christie 42 (-4 from last poll, 9/28-30)
Corzine 41 (-1)
Daggett 14 (+7)
Undecided 3 (-2)

While this poll shows Daggett movement in the positive direction, another poll finds him slipping a point.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)/Democracy Corps
(10/27-28, 604 LVs, +/- 4%)
Corzine 43 (+1 from last poll, 10/20-21)
Christie 38 (-1)
Daggett 12 (-1)
Undecided 7 (+1)

The RCP Average for New Jersey is now Corzine +1.6.

Some good economic news for Team Obama:

As much of a relief as it must be for the Obama adminsitration to have the Dow back over 10k (at least for the moment) and to see some economic expansion after a solid year of shrinkage, as a political matter its still all about the return of jobs, jobs, jobs.

New DKos/Research 2000 poll in NY-23 race shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into a statistical tie with Democrat Bill Owens, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has faded to a distant third:

Owens  (D) 33 (-2 vs. last poll Oct 19-21)
Hoffman (C) 32 (+9)
Scozzafava (R) 21 (-9)

This tracks with the movement we've seen in some other recent polls in this race.

Five days to go and another new poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading by double digits. The GOP nominee leads Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17 points in the Roanoke College Poll (Oct. 21-27, 569 LV, MoE +/- 4.1%).

"Deeds is facing a steep uphill battle in so far as he has a lot of ground to make up in one week, and the tide is not moving in his direction," said Roanoke pollster Harry Wilson.

McDonnell 53
Deeds 36
Und 11

McDonnell leads by 15.2 points in the RCP Average for Virginia

This is the second poll in two days in whch Deeds has garnered just 36% of the vote. The last time he received at least 45% was in mid-September.

The freshly revealed House Dems' health plan clocks in at an astonishing 1,990 pages. That makes War and Peace look like some fluffy summer beach book.

A couple of interesting nuggets from the excerpt of David Plouffe's new book appearing in the current issue of Time. First, his description of his (and David Axelrod's) meeting with Joe Biden to discuss the VP slot:

The [first] meeting started with Biden launching into a nearly 20-minute monologue that ranged from the strength of our campaign in Iowa ("I literally wouldn't have run if I knew the steamroller you guys would put together"); to his evolving views of Obama ("I wasn't sure about him in the beginning of the campaign, but I am now"); why he didn't want to be VP ("The last thing I should do is VP; after 36 years of being the top dog, it will be hard to be No. 2"); why he was a good choice ("But I would be a good soldier and could provide real value, domestically and internationally"); and everything else under the sun. Ax and I couldn't get a word in edgewise.

It confirmed what we suspected: this dog could not be taught new tricks.

Also interesting was Plouffe's description of the back and forth over their initial statement on McCain's choice of Sarah Palin. Axelrod and Plouffe came out swinging with a tough statement that surprised nearly everyone with its aggressive, negative tone. Plouffe writes that the firestorm of reaction made him think they had "misfired." Obama thought they had, and wanted to release a second statement, which Plouffe worried would make the campaign look bad. Plouffe writes:

I didn't disagree but thought backtracking would only add to the sense in the press that perhaps Palin was a brilliant game-changing pick that had scrambled the race. Even the famously disciplined Obama campaign can't get its story straight — this would be the blowback. "Look," I told him, "simply say that you're adding your own personal voice, one principal to another." He acknowledged that he understood and would watch his words. "We'll send out a personal statement from you and Biden," I said, "but it's important you not suggest we misfired on the original statement. Don't throw the campaign under the bus."

But when he took a few questions from the press later that day, he proceeded to drive the bus right over us. "I think that, you know, campaigns start getting these hair triggers, and the statement that Joe and I put out reflects our sentiments," he said.