A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of New Jersey, the first to include independent candidate Chris Daggett, mirrors other polls released this week in showing a narrower gap for Gov. Jon Corzine (D).

General Election Matchup
Christie 46 (-2 from last poll, 8/6)
Corzine 42 (+2)
Daggett 7 (n/a)
Undecided 5 (-4)

Christie's lead is now 3.8 in the RCP Average.

The key question going forward is how much support Daggett will get on Election Day, and which major party candidate that hurts most. More than 60 percent of voters had no opinion of the independent in this poll. But he's getting more attention -- not just from last night's debate, but the free media that's following. The three candidates debate one more time, on October 16.

Christie's favorable rating is at 47 percent, actually a slight increase from the last survey -- but his unfavorable rating also jumped, to 36. Corzine still has an upside-down rating, 37 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 28-30, and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

In what has become a monthly routine, Republicans took the opportunity once again to cite new unemployment numbers in criticizing Democrats for the economic stimulus package passed earlier this year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that unemployment had risen a tenth of a point to 9.8 percent, the highest since June 1983.

"Today's troubling report underscores the need for Democrats in Washington to scrap their job-killing agenda and act in a bipartisan way to put Americans back to work," said House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio).

The stimulus bill was signed into law by President Obama February 17. Since then Democrats have continued to tout the progress the economy has made since the beginning of the year, and Obama has maintained that things would be even worse had there been no stimulus. The president's Council of Economic Advisers reports that the package has created or retained 1 million jobs.

Just yesterday, Vice President Biden announced new targets for the stimulus package and touted "great progress in the first seven months" of its implementation in 2009.

Republicans, however, disagree and have utilized fresh unemployment data from the BLS to help prove their point.

"Continued job loss does not equal success despite claims to the contrary, and the American people deserve stronger economic leadership," said House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.).

Democrats, meanwhile, continue to push ownership of the recession on President Bush in an attempt to deflect the brunt of criticism off Obama. In a briefing with reporters in mid-September, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) noted that 650,000 jobs were lost on average in the last three months of Bush's term -- far less than 263,000 lost in September and 227,000 in August.

Hoyer also conceded that whether the GDP rises or not, "the American public is focused on jobs," which are a "lagging indicator."

"While the recession may be over, it is clear that we have not started to gain back jobs, which is absolutely essential," he said.

Obama and many Democrats in the House and Senate can most likely thank much of their electoral success on a down economy in 2008. Republicans hope to capitalize on it as well in 2010 by pronouncing a government-funded economic stimulus package a waste of taxpayers' money.

"As unemployment continues to climb, we are reminded again that wasteful government spending is not the solution to what ails this economy," said House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.). "The American people know that true economic recovery starts with fiscal discipline in Washington, D.C., and tax relief for working families, small businesses and family farms."

Looking for a fitting historical analogy to describe the current "cable wars?" Try the firebombing of Dresden.

Fox News has been dominating its competitors now for some time, but the latest round of Abritron ratings shows FNC absolutely scorching rivals CNN and MSNBC:

As you can see, every show in the top ten is from Fox News, as are 13 out of the top 15. In fact, only one of Fox News' fourteen programs is ranked below #15 in the ratings. That show is Red Eye, which airs from 3-4am - and it still pulls in more viewers than MSNBC's Morning Joe.

The personal battle between Bill O'Reilly and Keith Olbermann is no contest. Even O'Reilly's repeat show at 11pm pulls in 52% more viewers than Olberman's prime time show.

The war among morning shows - though not as high profile as it is on the Big Three - is also a joke. If you combine the household audience numbers from CNN's American Morning and MSNBC's Morning Joe, they still fall 23% below the number of households tuning in to watch Fox and Friends.

Overall, Fox News generates nearly twice as many viewers each day as CNN and MSNBC put together. If this were in fact a war, the white flag would be running up the pole as we speak.

Beau Biden was officially welcomed home after a deployment in Iraq yesterday. As focus now turns to his political future, a Rasmussen survey shows that the Delaware attorney general can't count on an easy road to the U.S. Senate seat that his father once held.

General Election Matchup
Castle (R) 47
Biden (D) 42
Not Sure 6

At-large Rep. Mike Castle, the state's former governor, has held his cards close to the vest as Republicans encourage him to announce his plans for the future soon. CongressDaily's Erin McPike reported that Castle recently told potential donors to hold on to their money because he did not want to have to refund contributions should he decide to retire.

Should Castle not run, Biden should have a much easier road. He leads Christine O'Donnell, the Republican nominee in 2008 against then-Sen. Joe Biden, 49-40.

Favorable Ratings
Biden 60 / 32
Castle 61 / 34
O'Donnell 46 / 36

Consumer Reports is throwing its hat in the health care reform ring, calling on Congress to pass legislation this year. For the first time ever, the organization is airing a TV ad to get across its message on behalf of consumers.

"We believe that so much attention has been focused on the politics of health care that we're losing sight of the core problems," said Jim Guest, president of Consumers Union and publisher of Consumer Reports. "Health costs are skyrocketing, which affects all of us, and if you get seriously sick, having insurance is no guarantee that you'll get the care you need."

CR is a decades-old magazine and has one of the 10 highest circulations in the country. Its mission is to fight for a fair marketplace for consumers. The TV ad will air in the D.C. metro area for the next two weeks.

"For 73 years, Consumer Reports has been a trusted source of information for consumers who want to make the best decisions," Guest says in the ad. "Today health care costs too much. Many Americans are one pink slip or one major illness away from losing their coverage. We at Consumers Union say this problem must be fixed this year for everyone's sake. Washington, the time for health care reform is now."

In a statement, Guest maintained CR's independence from any political party or group.

"We don't endorse candidates," he said. "And we don't care who gets the credit for fixing the problems with health care -- we just need them fixed."

This New York Times story is laden with tea leaves and significant political implications:

LONDON — The top military commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, rejected calls for scaling down military objectives there on Thursday and said Washington did not have unlimited time to settle on a new strategy to pursue the eight-year-old war. [snip]

He was speaking in Britain — a close American ally in Afghanistan — a day after he participated by video link from London in a White house strategy session on Afghanistan that included President Obama, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and an array of senior advisors.

General McChrystal was asked by a member of an audience that included retired military commanders and security specialists whether he would support an idea put forward by Vice President Biden of scaling back the American military presence in Afghanistan to focus on tracking down Al Qaeda leaders in place of the current broader effort now underway to defeat the Taliban.

“The short answer is: no,” he said. “You have to navigate from where you are, not where you wish to be. A strategy that does not leave Afghanistan in a stable position is probably a short-sighted strategy.”

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) heads into tonight's first televised debate with the wind at his back. A Monmouth University/Gannett poll shows him trailing Chris Christie by just 3.

General Election Matchup -- Likely Voters
Christie 43 (-4 from last poll, 9/14)
Corzine 40 (+1)
Daggett 8 (+3)
Don't Know 8 (+1)

Though Democrats will welcome the news, the narrowing gap is more attributable to slippage in Chris Christie's numbers than any significant gains on the Corzine side. Also, as with yesterday's Quinnipiac poll, independent candidate Chris Daggett is the one showing the most growth. The race is tied among registered voters, with Corzine and Christie each at 40, and Daggett at 7.

Christie led by 5 points in the RCP Average heading into today.

Corzine does see some improvement in his fav/unfav rating, from a net -16 to a net -9. Christie's drop significantly, however, from a net +18 to net +2.

Favorable Ratings
Corzine 40 / 49
Christie 41 / 39
Daggett 17 / 8

Corzine's job approval rating is at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving.

Another factor in the narrowing gap? Monmouth finds that "more Democrats have become interested in the outcome of this campaign and thus are now more likely to vote than they were just a month ago."

The survey of 527 likely voters was conducted September 24-29, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

Just one point still separates Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and his Republican challenger for re-election Pat Toomey, the former congressman and Club for Growth head. Both find themselves leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), according to a Quinnipiac poll released today (Sept. 22-28, 1100 RV, MoE +/- 3%).

Specter's margin over Sestak in the primary has dropped 13 points since the July 22 poll, while Toomey's small lead over Sestak in the general election is practically unchanged.

More than half of voters still haven't heard of Toomey, while 70% don't know Sestak. Specter, who has a 90% name ID, is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 46% -- his first upside down favorable rating in at least a year.

Dem Primary
Specter 44
Sestak 25
Und 28

Specter leads by 18.2 points in the RCP Average

General Election
Toomey 43
Specter 42
Und 13

Toomey and Specter are tied in the RCP Average

Toomey 38
Sestak 35
Und 25

Toomey leads by 3.5 points in the RCP Average

"Toomey and Specter are neck and neck in what could be a 13-month horse race," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. "The challenger's ability to close the 53 – 33 percent gap in Quinnipiac University's May 4 poll is evidence that the longtime senator's decision to switch parties to avoid a potential loss to Toomey in a GOP primary may not be the magic bullet for reelection that he had hoped it would be."