One of the hardest Senate seats for the Republicans to hold this cycle is retiring Senator Judd Gregg's.  But the latest University of New Hampshire poll shows Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leading likely Democratic candidate Paul Hodes by seven points, 40%-33%.  This is especially bad news for Hodes, given that he has higher name recognition than the AG.  Hodes does better against failed GOP gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, whom he leads 37%-28%, and Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney by an identical margin.

Tom Ricks is no right winger, so his comment from last Friday afternoon merits some attention:

I see where Obama met with Gen. McChrystal for 25 minutes today in Denmark. I do no find this reassuring. That's what you do with an obstreperous cabinet secretary like James Watt who is causing more trouble than he is worth. If Obama were serious about Afghanistan -- or even if he wants to look serious -- he would have asked McChrystal to fly home with him on Air Force One, and sit and talk for a few hours.

In its second poll in the race in the past week, SurveyUSA finds Creigh Deeds (D) gaining 3 points on Bob McDonnell (R) but still trailing by double digits (Oct. 2-4, 608 LV, MoE +/- 4%). The poll found Deeds picking up support among women, whom the campaign has targeted in much of its ads about McDonnell's socially conservative views.

McDonnell 54 (-1 vs. last poll, Sept. 29)
Deeds 43 (+2)
Und 4 (nc)

McDonnell leads by 7.3 points in the RCP Average

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the popular former governor, hit the trail with Deeds this morning in Arlington. It's just Warner's latest foray into the race -- he's previously stumped alongside Deeds and is also featured in a TV ad.

A new Rasmussen survey finds Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) outperforming his Senate primary rival, Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, against their potential general election foes, Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Rand Paul (R).

Grayson, the favored candidate among national GOP leadership, leads Mongiardo by 7 points, but ties with Conway. Paul also leads Mongiardo, though trails Conway by 4 points.

For all the talk of the GOP picking up seats in the midterm elections, this open seat could be one the party has a difficult time holding -- which is perhaps why Grayson picked up a fundraising boost on Capitol Hill last month.

General Election Matchups
Grayson 44 - Mongiardo 37 - Und 14

Paul 43 - Mongairdo 38 - Und 13

Grayson 40 - Conway 40 - Und 17

Paul 38 - Conway 42 - Und 15

Mongiardo was recently caught on tape criticizing Gov. Steve Beshear (D), who recently named a new running mate for his 2011 re-election bid. A DailyKos survey out a month ago found Mongiardo leading Conway in the Dem primary and both candidates performing similarly against Grayson and Paul.

The Rasmussen survey was conducted Sept. 30 of 500 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

According to a Rasmussen poll out this morning, 78% of those following the Roman Polanski story closely think he should go to prison. Only 8% disagree.

That helps put a bit of an exclamation point on how flyover country feels about Polanski's raping of a 13 year old girl thirty odd years ago versus the view taken by the Hollywood crowd (Harvey Weinstein, Woody Allen, et al) that petitioned for his immediate release.

Richard Gere is going to blow a gasket:

In an attempt to gain favor with China, the United States pressured Tibetan representatives to postpone a meeting between the Dalai Lama and President Obama until after Obama's summit with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, scheduled for next month, according to diplomats, government officials and other sources familiar with the talks.

For the first time since 1991, the Tibetan spiritual leader will visit Washington this week and not meet with the president. Since 1991, he has been here 10 times.

This is not just Obama reflexively "breaking from Bush." It's a break from the policy of the last three administrations. As the Washington Post reports, the snub is part of Obama's new doctrine of "strategic reassurance" with China:

The U.S. decision to postpone the meeting appears to be part of a strategy to improve ties with China that also includes soft-pedaling criticism of China's human rights and financial policies as well as backing efforts to elevate China's position in international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund. Obama administration officials have termed the new policy "strategic reassurance," which entails the U.S. government taking steps to convince China that it is not out to contain the emerging Asian power.

Possible motives for the move: 1) China holds so much of our debt now we can't afford to express even the tiniest symbolic criticism of our new international loan sharks, 2) President Obama is trying to curry favor with the Chinese in exchange for bringing them on board with sanctions against Iran, 3) the President is exhibiting yet another example of what critics say is his penchant for naivete, believing that America will get something in return for stiffing the Dalai Lama and going silent on Chinese human rights abuses in a preemptive "goodwill" effort, or, 4) a combination of 1, 2, and 3.

As bad as things have been going for President Obama lately - including another no good rotten day today - his troubles pale in comparison to what Gordon Brown is experiencing in England. Gordo's been on a losing streak for the better part of the last 18 months and his Labour Party is at all time low in the polls.

Simon Heffer of the conservative-leaning Daily Telegraph dropped in on the Labour Party Conference in Brighton and doesn't mince words in his analysis:

Most of us could not care less about the cringe-inducing embarrassment that was the Labour Party conference. However, it again highlighted something we should care quite profoundly about: and that is the hideous amount of damage these morons, sleazeballs and incompetents are capable of doing to our country before (as we must hope is the case) we boot them out of office in seven months' time. [snip]

Reflect, for a moment, on what a pig of a week Mr Brown has had, and upon how much of his misfortune has been self-inflicted. When I arrived in Brighton last Sunday, the atmosphere was like that of a pub with no beer, and it got worse. Many MPs could not bear to go. The Cabinet appeared to be there under sufferance. The rank and file were either trade unionists, waiting to mount their coup d'état when Mr Brown is finally pushed off the perch, or the deeply deluded, or in some cases both. Almost the only person who does not seem to know Labour is heading for the exit is Mr Brown. And he is almost the only person, too, who seems not to see that it is almost entirely his fault.

Double ouch. Heffer concludes with a rather ominous comparison:

It is not that long since 1997, when a Tory party that had stuck with a useless prime minister right to the end found itself thrown out of power for at least 13 years. Most of the Labour Party admit now that they face not just defeat, but possibly obliteration, and a period of ritual disembowelment afterwards such as we saw after 1979. With Alan Johnson biding his time, it doesn't have to be like that. But Labour remains too timid to tell the emperor he has no clothes, so oblivion it shall be.

The Deeds campaign just announced a new TV ad that once again pushes the argument that Bob McDonnell (R) is socially conservative and will attempt to make Virginia that way if elected governor. This is the latest in a slew of negative ads aired by Creigh Deeds (D) since early September, after The Washington Post unearthed a graduate thesis McDonnell wrote in which he promotes socially conservative public policy views.

The 30-second ad, airing across the state through the Nov. 3 election, features McDonnell's speech at the 2008 National Right to Life Convention. The ad is most directly aimed at women and liberals in Northern Virginia -- a key voting bloc for any Democratic statewide candidate and one which Deeds has yet to fully win over.

"Just over one year ago, while serving as Attorney General, Bob McDonnell told a gathering of right wing activists that Virginia has elections to determine who has the power and whether the Commonwealth will be Pro-Life," said Deeds spokesman Jared Leopold. "It's clear from what Bob McDonnell wrote, what he has said and how he voted that his priority will be to continue his efforts to move a divisive social agenda on the state."

Here is "Bob McDonnell: Elections Matter":

McDonnell announced the launch of two new TV ads today as well, one which highlights his working relationships with women, and one targeting Deeds for the potential to raise taxes.

I meant to blog about this story yesterday:

The Democratic leader of the US Senate has urged President Barack Obama to fulfill his campaign promise to repeal the ban on gays in the military, in a letter released Thursday.

Senate Majority leader Harry Reid appealed to Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates to come to Congress with recommendations on how to repeal the law that forbids gays from openly serving in the armed services.

We can infer from this story that Harry Reid is just not that bright when it comes to political strategy.  I mean, really, with health care legislation at a critical stage, cap-and-trade now working its way in the Senate, and the President grappling with monstrous challenges on Iran, Afghanistan, rising unemployment and a contracting economy, is now a good time to fight this fight?

The president has enough headaches right now. The last thing he needs is Harry Reid dragging him into a fight over gays in the military.

Despite President Obama's personal pitch, Chicago will not host the 2016 Olympic Games. Worse still, the Windy City was eliminated in the first round.

UPDATE: Here's the White House spin from David Axelrod, speaking on MSNBC: "Obviously it's a disappointment. It would have been great to have the Olympics in Chicago. ... The President of the United States will go anywhere to promote the interests of this country, to make the case for this country. I think it was worth the effort. And we move on."

He went on to emphasize that it was a short trip on the president's part, and that he still thinks it was worth it. "It was well worth the effort. I'm not worried about the politics of it."