Martha Coakley's campaign sent out the results of a poll they commissioned from Lake Research Partners (Sept 21-24, 800 Dem LV, MoE +/-3.5%) showing her capturing nearly half the vote in the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts:

Martha Coakley          47%
Michael Capuano        12%
Stephen Pagliuca           4%
Alan Khazei                  1%

The special election primaries will be held on December 8, and the general will be conducted the following month on the 19th of January, 2009.

In the first poll conducted entirely after Friday's debate, Rasmussen shows that Chris Christie (R) still leads in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, but that his lead has shrunk to three points, within the margin of error.

General Election Matchup
Christie 47 (-1 from last poll, 9/21)
Corzine 44 (+3)
Daggett 6 (unch)
Don't Know 3 (-2)

Corzine's 44 percent showing is his highest in any poll this year. Christie's lead in the RCP average was at 2.5.

In an interesting signal of how the race might break in the final four weeks, Rasmussen finds that Christie holds a 5-point lead among those who are certain of their choice and won't change their mind. But among the one-third of the electorate who say they are undecided or could change their mind, Daggett is their top choice with 27 percent, followed by Corzine at 24 percent and Christie at 22 percent.

"At the moment, Christie's voters are a bit more certain to actually show up and vote. However, in New Jersey, Democrats have traditionally displayed a stronger ground game to get-out-the-vote," the Rasmussen release states.

The one main jump for Daggett since the debate has been in his favorable rating. His rating in the last Rasmussen poll was 28 / 27, but he's seen a big spike on the positive side.

Favorable Ratings
Christie 46 / 50
Corzine 45 / 52
Daggett 44 / 27

The automated telephone survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 5, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

A rush transcript from CNN on Wolf Blitzer's interview with Republican Rep. Eric Cantor:

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR:  Let's speak with a top Republican who was there.  Eric Cantor is the minority whip in the House of Representatives.

Congressman, you just came out of that meeting.  What was your bottom-line assessment?  How did it go?

REP. ERIC CANTOR (R- VA), MINORITY WHIP:  Well, Wolf, you know, we were glad to come to the White House.  I mean, obviously, this is a huge decision for this president.

A lot of us came out early spring when, in March, President Obama said he was committed to the mission in Afghanistan, to make sure that we dismantled al Qaeda and its extremist allies in the name of U.S. security.  And so now what we're hearing is from the commanders in the field an urgent cry for additional troops, and everyone is concerned about the status quo as the situation grows more dangerous for our troops on the ground.

We were here to express our support for the president and his committing to the mission up front, and expressed our support to work with him if he makes the right decision, which is to listen to his commanders in the field who are asking desperately for more troops.

BLITZER:  Do you have a problem with what Harry Reid just said, that strategy before resources -- in other words, let the president and his commanders come up with a strategy and then the issue of troops and other resources would be made?  Is that a problem for you?

CANTOR:  Well, you know, the position I believe that many of us are taking is based upon General McChrystal's report.  That is the commander in the field.  That is the essence of the recommendations that have worked their way up through the system.  I believe that that strategy is on the table for the president to make the decision.

We came here in support of the president's -- president relying on his commanders so that we can execute on our mission, which is going to be a tough one, which is to stabilize that region of the world in the name of U.S. security.

BLITZER:  Is it fair to say that the Republicans who were in that room, Congressman, urged the president to implement General McChrystal's recommendations?

CANTOR:  I think it is a fair assessment right now that Republicans are committed to supporting this president if he says, yes, I will support our commanders on the ground.

BLITZER:  What if he says, no, he says I want to come up with a different strategy, in effect reducing the number of troops?  Some say Vice President Joe Biden advances such a strategy.

CANTOR:  You know, Wolf, I think now all of us want what's best for this country, and we want to set politics aside and want to put U.S. security first.  And I believe that the best move is to look to the commanders in the field.

None of us know better what's possible and what we can accomplish than the commander in the field, as is evidenced by General McChrystal's report.  So, if the president chooses to go a different route, you know, it is obviously going to be tough for us, but we'll need to listen to what this president says about how we can succeed in our mission.  It is about success in the mission.

BLITZER:  Did he give you any indication of a time frame when he'll make up his mind?

CANTOR:  There wasn't any definite commitment to a time frame.  Obviously, there are many of us who feel that delay does signal uncertainty to the region.  It does, I believe, signal uncertainty to the lives we've got on the ground.

This is why it is so urgent, I believe probably reflected in the voice of General McChrystal, who has had a lot of experience, as we know, Wolf, in Iraq with these types of operations, which is why we're here to say we'll support this president in responding to the request of General McChrystal.

BLITZER:  What was the major point that you made?  I assume you had a chance to say something to the president today, Congressman.  Give us a tiny little synopsis of your major point.

CANTOR:  I did, Wolf, and I said to the president, look, I mean, it is his decision as commander-in-chief, and obviously a tough one.  And I spoke about the political will of this country and how no one likes war.  And thank God we have men and women in uniform who will commit -- who will go on the front lines for us.

And I committed to the president to be supportive as possible in building a political case that it's necessary for us to have patience.  It's necessary for us to support our commanders on the ground, to give him and his colleagues and the folks in the field what they need to secure their lives, as well as our interests.

BLITZER:  Who made the case in that meeting, Congressman, not to send any more troops?

CANTOR:  Well, I think it was fairly unanimous that no one wants to leave the region.  I think history is fraught with examples of an attempt to try and change the nature of that region unsuccessfully, and then a disappearance of those forces.  I don't think anyone wants to do that, but I do think now there are some who want to avoid perhaps the political risk that it's going to take to respond to General McChrystal's request.

BLITZER:  All right.  Congressman Eric Cantor, thanks very much for joining us.

CANTOR:  Thank you, Wolf.

The American public supports U.S. military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, if diplomacy fails, according to two major polls.

The Pew Research Center reported Tuesday that about six in 10 Americans support a military strike if nuclear negotiations break down. A majority of Independents, Democrats and Republicans share this view. Pew's survey echoes a Fox News poll last week.

In short, the U.S. mainstream is cautiously hawkish on Iran. But Americans do not believe the time for force is now. About six in 10 Americans still back direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Here too, however, Americans want a firm hand. Three quarters of Americans support "tougher" sanctions against Iran, Pew reports.

Tougher, that is, because Americans believe the time for talking will end. Pew found that 64 percent of Americans say that negotiations will not alone convince Iran to give up its nuclear program, also mimicking Fox's poll results last week.

As I wrote yesterday, Americans have come expect the worst from Iran. And as Iran moves toward the bomb, it cannot count on American war fatigue. At some point, President Obama may feel broad public pressure to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. The feasibility of delaying Iran's nuclear program by force is, of course, another matter.

Two separate North Carolina-based polling organizations released new surveys today that found Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue's approval ratings hovering below 30 percent. Unfortunately for Perdue, this is nothing new for the governor still in her first year in office.

Public Policy Polling's survey found Perdue at her lowest mark yet -- 24 percent approval, as more Democrats (39%) now disapprove of the job she's doing than approve of it (38%).

These numbers, as we've written previously, stem from a down economy and a difficult budget process with the North Carolina Legislature, one that included raising taxes and cutting state services.

The Civitas Institute survey puts Perdue at 29 percent. Civitas also found 63 percent disapproving of the job she's doing -- easily her highest disapproval rating yet.

"While the number of voters approving of her job is holding steady, the number who said they disapprove is skyrocketing," said Civitas executive director Francis De Luca. "A lot of people dismiss job approval ratings this far from an election, but at some point Perdue has to see her numbers stabilize. According to these latest numbers, it appears her support continues to fall."

PPP's survey was conducted Oct. 2-4 of 683 RV with a +/- 3.8% margin of error. The Civitas survey was taken Sept. 29-30 of 600 RV with a +/- 4% margin of error.

There has been a dearth of vocal Republican moderates on the main stage of American politics of late. Enter Mike Castle of Delaware, a nine-term GOP congressman. Castle announced today that he's running for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat. Castle's likely opponent is the vice president's son, state Attorney General Beau Biden.

Castle upends the Delaware Senate race. Top Congress wonk Stu Rothenberg immediately moved the race's ranking from “Currently Safe for Democrats” to “Lean Takeover for the GOP.” Speculative polls back Rothenberg's analysis. Castle has been elected statewide for a quarter century, including two terms as governor. He is now one of Republicans top prospects to crack into Democrats' Senate majority.

Castle's impact will not stop there. Castle is a throwback to a dying breed of Northeastern moderate Republicans. Republicans now have a moderate campaigning in one of the nation's premier 2010 Senate races. The Biden factor means outsized national media attention. Castle may bring the GOP some good press.

Today, Castle was careful to touch on “civility and bipartisanship.” He earned national attention this past summer at a town hall meeting. Castle was asked why Congress was not investigating claims that Obama was not born in the United States.

“If you're referring to the president, then he is a citizen of the United States," Castle replied. The crowd erupted in angry boos. Castle remained composed.

It was an image Republicans need more of. And Castle will likely offer it.

If you missed last night's game, here it is in just under five minutes:

More commentary and analysis on the Vikings game - and much more - at RealClearSports.

After trailing in the race in every poll since January, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) holds a lead in a major public poll. The FDU/Public Mind survey gives him a one-point lead over Republican Chris Christie (R), with independent Chris Daggett now drawing significant support.

General Election Matchup
Corzine 38
Christie 37
Daggett 17
Don't Know 6

Christie's lead in the RCP Average is down to 3.

In FDU's last survey in early September, Daggett was not included in the list, but 1 percent volunteered his name. In this month's survey, Daggett was volunteered by 4 percent in a survey in which his name was not included. But Corzine led that head-to-head as well, 44-43.

A cautionary vote, however. When the name of another independent candidate -- Gary Steele -- was included instead of Daggett's, even he drew double-digit support. That would seem to suggest that Daggett's pool of support includes many casual voters unhappy with the major party options, and who may ultimately not vote at all.

Debate Impact

The first televised debate occurred during the polling sample. Of the pool of respondents polled from Friday on, only 24 percent say they watched. Of that group, 14 percent of voters say Daggett won, followed by 12 percent who say Corzine, and just 4 percent say Christie. Three-in-five voters couldn't say. The real impact may be in boosting the independent's visibility -- only a third of voters say they had heard of him in the September survey; now, half of voters did.

Voters are increasingly convinced Corzine will win, with 49 percent now saying they expect that result -- up from 45 percent in September. Only 38 percent say they approve of Corzine's job performance, though that's a slight improvement from last month. His favorable rating jumped 6 points while his unfavorable number held stead. Christie's favorable number dropped 3 points, while his unfavorable rating climbed 7 points.

Favorable Ratings
Corzine 37 / 54
Christie 35 / 42
Daggett 16 / 7

The telephone poll of 667 likely voters was conducted from September 28-October 5, and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Former Illinois Attorney General (and Gubernatorial candidate) Jim Ryan is apparently getting ready to throw his hat in the ring this year. In addition to forming an exploratory committee last week, Ryan also released the results of a poll commissioned by Ayers, McHenry & Associates showing him crushing the current Republican primary field and running much better than any other Republican against either Democratic Governor Pat Quinn or his primary challenger Dan Hynes.

Republican Primary
Ryan 33
Brady 11
McKenna 7
Andrzejewski 6
Dillard 5
Schillerstrom 4
Proft 4
Undecided 30

General Election
Quinn (D) 39
Ryan (R) 34
Undecided 27

Ryan (R) 37
Hynes (D) 36
Undecided 27

Quinn (D) 43
Brady (R) 27
Undecided 31

Quinn (D) 44
Dillard (R) 25
Undecided 32

Quinn (D) 44
McKenna (R) 26
Undecided 30

In the Republican primary to replace Kansas Senator Sam Brownback - who's running for Governor - Congressman Jerry Moran is well ahead of House colleague Todd Tihart, 43 to 27, according to a new poll by SurveyUSA. Moran is up five points - and Tihart is down five points - from SUSA's last survey taken 2 months ago. In the current poll, 30% of Republican voters surveyed say they remain undecided.