As Vice President Biden drops by Reno, Nev., today and tomorrow to tout the economic stimulus package and fundraise for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), the Republican National Committee is airing a radio ad publicizing the high-dollar affair and high unemployment.

"Last February, Senator Harry Reid was a lead proponent of the economic stimulus experiment that he and President Obama promised would create jobs and get Nevada's economy back on track," RNC Chairman Michael Steele said in announcing the ad. "The people of Nevada deserve an explanation from Senator Reid – not Vice President Biden's rose colored projections, on when this so-called stimulus experiment will actually start putting Nevadans back to work."

The ad, which can be heard here, will run through tomorrow in the Reno media market.

Tom Freidman this morning on Obama and Afghanistan:

I have no problem with the president taking his time to figure this out. He and we are going to have to live with this decision for a long time.

Really? Obama's first position on Afghanistan, announced on March 27 and billed as a "comprehensive new strategy" arrived at after the "conclusion of a careful policy review," lasted all of six months.

What's to say Obama won't announce yet another new strategy - either some sort of middleground or a full on surge - and then revisit it after a few months?

The only decision that would have significant and irreparable long term consequences is a total withdrawal - something the White House has already taken off the table completely.

On the heels of the somewhat grim numbers for Specter from Susquehanna this morning, Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll in in the Pennsylvania Senate race showing Democrat Arlen Specter trailing Republican Pat Toomey by five points, 40-45.  While bad news for Specter, this actually represents an improvement for him given that last month's Rasmussen survey had Toomey up twelve.

Overall, Specter leads Toomey in the RCP Average by 0.8%.

The race is a dead heat when Toomey is matched against the other possible Democratic challenger, Joe Sestak. Sestak takes 38% to Toomey's 37%, with 19% undecided. This is also a significant improvement for Democrat Sestak. Last month's Rasmussen poll had him trailing Toomey by eight points, 43 to 35.

Toomey currently leads Sestak by 2.0% in the RCP Average.

Tomorrow morning Rasmussen will be releasing results on the Democratic primary.

Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.) announced this morning he is stepping down from his Congressional seat to accept the position of president of the Center for Middle East Peace, a D.C.-based think tank aimed at ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. Wexler announced the decision this morning at his Boca Raton office, and his exit from Congress is effective as of January 2010.

"Taking over as president of the Center for Middle East Peace offers me an unparalleled opportunity to work on behalf of Middle East peace for an important and influential non-profit institute," Wexler said. "After much discussion with my family, I have decided that I cannot pass up on this opportunity."

Wexler, one of the more liberal members of Congress, was an outspoken surrogate of Barack Obama last year during the presidential primaries and general election campaign, and he served as the campaign's Middle East adviser. He currently serves as the chairman of the Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Europe and sits on the Middle East subcommittee.

The congressman is in his seventh term representing the 19th District of Florida -- a long and skinny stretch in Palm Beach and Broward counties, landlocked by the 22nd and 23rd districts. It has one of the highest percentages of Jewish residents, and is firmly Democratic. President Obama won 66% of the vote in 2008, the same as John Kerry in 2004 but down from Al Gore's 73% in 2000.

"I am proud that everyday I have sought to advocate for and provide a voice to my constituents: whether it was fighting for a legitimate vote during the 2000 election, working toward enacting a voter verified paper trail in Florida, or advocating for health care, education, Social Security and countless other issues," said Wexler.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) must now set a special election date to fill the vacant seat. While the winning party is in little doubt, there will surely be a group of ambitious Democrats lining up to run. They include state senators Jeremy Ring and Ted Deutch, West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel, Broward County Mayor Stacy Ritter and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber, according to the Miami Herald.

Commentary: The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder calls this a "curious" move for a young entrenched congressman in his prime. NPR's Ken Rudin wonders if it's because Wexler feels at odds with Obama over how to achieve peace. The Sun-Sentinel notes that Wexler said he'll be able to take in far more money than a Member of Congress does.

A new Susquehanna poll finds that only 31% of Pennsylvania voters think Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) deserves to be re-elected, a "staggering" and "near fatal" number according to pollster Jim Lee (Oct. 7-12, 700 Rv, MoE +/- 3.7%). That's down from 38 points in February, prior to Specter's switch from the Republican Party. Among Democrats, 45% say it's time for someone else to represent the state in the Senate instead of the five-term senator

Specter still leads his Democratic primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), by 28 points, but is running even with his general election opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Specter 44
Sestak 16
Und 22

Specter leads by 20.2 points in the RCP Average in the Democratic Primary

Specter 42
Toomey 41
Und 12

Specter leads by 0.2 of a point in the RCP Average for the General Election

In the gubernatorial election, in which term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D-Pa.) is barred from running, Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leads Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) by 36% to 13% margin in the GOP primary, with 50% undecided. The Democratic primary was not tested.

There seems to be a growing consensus among pollsters that the New Jersey governor race is a dead heat. A new Quinnipiac poll out this morning also puts Chris Christie's lead at just one.

General Election Matchup
Christie 41 (-2 from last poll, 9/23-28)
Corzine 40 (+1)
Daggett 14 (+2)
Undecided 5 (-1)

Christie's lead in the RCP Average is also now at just 1 percent.

With independent candidate Chris Daggett increasingly seen as a potential spoiler, it's noteworthy that only 39 percent of his supporters say they're mind is made up, compared to 80 percent of Christie voters and 75 percent of Corzine backers. Among all Daggett voters, 40 percent say their second choice is Christie, while 33 percent say Corzine and 13 percent say they would not vote at all.

“Historically, third party candidates fade on election day. Apparently, voters agree," Quinnipiac's Maurice Carrol says in the survey release. "Very few of his backers are committed ... and 77 percent of all voters say he has no chance of winning.”

Corzine's favorable rating continues to show improvement, while Christie's unfavorable number again dips slightly. Though other polls have shown him with a better name ID, Quinnipiac finds that 73 percent of voters say they haven't heard enough about Daggett to form a strong opinion.

Favorable Ratings
Christie 38 / 40
Corzine 40 / 53
Daggett 19 / 7

Any Corzine growth in recent weeks has been attributed in part to his attack on Christie over the issue of mammogram coverage. But the Q poll found that only 34 percent of voters though this was a legitimate issue, while 60 percent called it an unfair attack.

Corzine's job approval rating is now at 39 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. Last month the split was 36 / 58.

The survey of 1,264 likely voters was conducted October 7-12, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

A new poll for GrassrootsPA, performed by Dane and Associates, shows Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter leading former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey by a slim 46%-43% margin. Specter's primary challenger, Congressman Joe Sestak, leads Toomey by a somewhat stronger 43%-38% margin.

All is not bad news for Republicans (and holding a five-term incumbent to 46% is not all bad news). Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett leads all four Democrats in the upcoming gubernatorial race, though there are many undecideds:

Corbett-Former Congressman Joe Hoeffel: 53%-37%
Corbett-Auditor General Jack Wagner: 41%-37%
Corbett-Philly Mayoral candidate Tom Knox: 44%-36%
Corbett-Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato: 44%-32%

Corbett's primary opponent, Congressman Jim Gerlach, was not tested.

A new Rasmussen survey finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading by 7 points with three weeks to go in the Virginia gubernatorial race (Oct. 12, 750 LV, MoE +/- 4%).

McDonnell receives a 59% favorable rating, compared with Deeds' 47% favorable and 47% unfavorable ratings. Asked who they trust to handle transportation, perhaps the most volatile issue in recent gubernatorial elections in the state, 43% said McDonnell and 37% Deeds.

McDonnell 50 (-1 vs. last poll, Sept. 30)
Deeds 43 (+1)
Und 6

McDonnell leads by 8.8 points in the RCP Average.

So far, Pres. Obama has not committed to returning to the state to campaign with Deeds. The poll finds that 23% would be more likely to vote for Deeds if Obama does come, while 43% said they would be less likely and 32% said it would have no impact.

On McDonnell's graduate school thesis, which has taken a central role in the race thanks to Deeds continuing to push the issue, 55% said it was an important factor in determining how they will vote and 39% said it was not.

Following the Finance Committee's 14-9 vote to pass Chairman Max Baucus's health care bill, the Democratic and Republican Senate campaign committees quickly released statements calling out members from the opposite party for their votes. Meanwhile, the Democratic and Republican Senate leaders focused their statements on Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), the lone Republican to vote in favor of the plan.

"Sen. Snowe is also to be commended for voting for this proposal in the face of immense pressure from opponents of reform," said Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.). "Her courage to stick with her principles in the face of an increasingly partisan environment in Washington, DC is heartening and should serve as a reminder that health care is an issue that should defy party labels."

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), firmly against the bill, focused on Snowe's continued reservations with the plan, which she voiced this morning to McConnell as well as in committee.

"Sen. Snowe called me this morning to let me know that while she continues to have serious, substantive policy reservations with this proposal, she wanted to keep the process moving," said McConnell. "I share her concerns about the direction of this bill once it leaves the committee, and her call for transparency before we vote to proceed to any bill on the floor."

Both leaders recognized that while this was an important vote that continued to move Democrats' health care reform initiatives forward, this bill is not the one that will end up on the Senate floor. Reid and a committee of senators will now merge the Finance bill with the one passed three months ago in the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, formerly chaired by Ted Kennedy.

That will not be a simple process, as the HELP bill contains a public insurance option, unlike the Finance bill. Should a bill pass the full Senate, it would then need to be combined with the House bill and voted on again. Snowe maintained that by voting today, it did not guarantee her continued support.

"My vote today is my vote today, it doesn't forecast what my vote will be tomorrow," said Snowe.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is focusing on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who is up for re-election next year and whose vulnerability could be decided by how she votes on health care and other issues.

“It very troubling that Senator Lincoln went back on her word and decided to vote in favor of a bill that will ultimately shift costs to voters in Arkansas who are still struggling to make ends meet," said NRSC spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand. "Despite her assertions to the contrary, Blanche Lincoln has effectively opened the door with this vote for a government-run program that will come between her constituents and their doctors and potentially cause over 88 million Americans to lose their coverage."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee went after Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), the Finance ranking member. Grassley is up for re-election next year as well, but not considered vulnerable at this point.

"With today's vote, Senator Grassley affirmed his loyalty to insurance companies," said DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz. "Instead of championing the people he pledged to serve, Grassley sided with the special interests and toed the Republican Party line by voting to obstruct progress at every turn. Senator Grassley owes the people of Iowa an explanation."

A second Republican in as many weeks announced today he will not challenge Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.). Former state senator Dan Webster had been seriously considering a bid, but said he was following his gut in not running.

"After much prayer and thoughtful consideration, I have decided not to run for the United States House of Representatives, District 8," Webster said, according to Florida news outlets. "This has been a very difficult decision for me personally, especially because of the tremendous outpouring of support that has flooded me from all sides."

Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty said last week that he will not be running, leaving Webster as the assumed frontrunner in the GOP primary. Now, Webster's decision leaves several others to compete in what will likely be a costly and competitive primary: restaurant supply company owner Jerry Pierce; real estate developer Armando Gutierrez Jr.; Patricia Sullivan, a stay-at-home mother; and Dan Fanelli, a former pilot.

In his short time in Congress, Grayson has earned exposure for speaking his mind, most recently for his performance arguing for health care reform on the House floor.