Christie Up By 7?

Republican polling outfit Neighborhood Research shows Chris Christie up by seven points heading into next Tuesday's elections, 42%-35%-8%.   The dataset of 319 respondents is awfully low, and it seems unlikely that 15% of New Jersey's electorate is really undecided this late in the game.  In the "definite" voter category, Christie's lead expands to 44%-35%-8%.  This is good news for Christie in a way, because it indicates that the absolute most likely voters are leaning his way.  Since turnout is not expected to be robust, those voters who actually turn out may be more likely to vote Christie than the polls are currently indicating.

The poll also measured the generic vote in state assembly races, and shows Republicans leading 45%-34%.  Given the odd dynamics of the three-way race at the top of the ticket, this may be the best measure of how the state is actually leaning on Tuesday.



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