The news that Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is dropping out of the race in New York 23 threatens to completely upset the applecart in upstate New York.  PPP was in the midst of polling when the announcement came.   About 29 minutes ago they tweeted that "[w]ith about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman."

I'm not 100% certain this is correct -- though I am 60% certain.  There's a chance that Scozzafava's remaining supporters were independents or liberal Republicans who didn't necessarily want a Democrat in Congress or who couldn't bring themselves to support someone as conservative as Hoffman.  They may break heavily for Owens.  Hopefully we'll get another poll or two before the voting starts on Tuesday.