A lot of Republicans have talked up their chances in California 10, a seat being vacated by Ellen Tauscher.  Tauscher won the district from Bill Baker in 1996, but there has been substantial redistricting since then, making the district much more Democratic.  Still, these voters have shown some willingness to pull the lever for Republican candidates; Arnold Schwarzenegger carried the district twice, the second time by more than his statewide average.

The latest SurveyUSA polling should provide a little bit of cold water on this theory.  It shows Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leading Republican businessman David Harmer by ten points, 50%-40%, with 4% undecided (6% to "others").  A ten point win wouldn't be a huge cause for celebration among Democrats in a district Obama got 65% of the vote in, but a vote in Congress is a vote in Congress.

If you're a Republican still looking for a way for Harmer to win, it's probably this:  The voter registration numbers in the district are 47% Democratic, 29% Republican, with the remainder spread among various parties.  The SUSA polling is 52%D, 32%R, and 16%I.  This isn't a year where I expect Democratic turnout to overperform registration statistics in the district.  But to be clear, this isn't a year where I expect the Republican to win a district like CA-10.

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