The blogosphere is abuzz over a new poll showing Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava in the race to replace Congressman John McHugh (R), who resigned to become Obama's Secretary of the Army.  The Club for Growth-sponsored poll by Basswood Research shows Hoffman with 31%, Owens with 27%, and Scozzafava at 20%.

New York is a fairly unique state in that candidates run on a number of party lines (a fascinating history unto itself).  Normally the Liberal and Democratic parties endorse the same candidate, while the Conservative and Republican parties do the same.  But in New York 23, a district Republicans have held since the nineteenth century, the Conservative party was sufficiently disenchanted with Scozzafava to nominate its own candidate, Doug Hoffman.

On the one hand, this poll should be viewed skeptically.  It is commissioned by the Club for Growth, which has heavily backed Hoffman.   Candidate polls tend to somehow always show more favorable results for their candidates than other, non-partisan pollsters.

On the other hand, there's been a dearth of polling in the district, accompanied by a surge of activity.  The last polling was conducted by Research 2000 (October 19-20) for the liberal website DailyKos.  It showed Hoffman at 23%, Owens at 35%, and Scozzafava at 30%.    Polling conducted a week earlier by New York based Siena showed a similar Owens lead.

Since those polls were conducted, Scozzafava has endured a spate of bad publicity.  In particular, her use of the police to stop an aggressive reporter has received widespread attention in the district.  Hoffman has had some decent fundraising and has received endorsements or campaign visits from Dick Armey, Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, and Michele Bachmann.   He's finally gotten on the airwaves.  In other words, it's at least plausible that he's surged in the past few days, while Scozzafava has faded.

In the absence of a few more datapoints from non-partisan pollsters, this race remains in the "who knows what's really going on" category.   But a Hoffman victory doesn't seem as improbable as it did a week ago.