The news that Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is dropping out of the race in New York 23 threatens to completely upset the applecart in upstate New York.  PPP was in the midst of polling when the announcement came.   About 29 minutes ago they tweeted that "[w]ith about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman."

I'm not 100% certain this is correct -- though I am 60% certain.  There's a chance that Scozzafava's remaining supporters were independents or liberal Republicans who didn't necessarily want a Democrat in Congress or who couldn't bring themselves to support someone as conservative as Hoffman.  They may break heavily for Owens.  Hopefully we'll get another poll or two before the voting starts on Tuesday.

After a slew of polls from the Minutemen, the Club for Growth, and DailyKos, we finally get a poll from an independent polling outfit, Siena, confirming what those polls have shown:  Republican Dede Scozzafava has become the third party candidate in upstate New York.  Democrat Bill Owens leads Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and Scozzafava 36%-35%-20%.  The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Each candidate leads in an area of the district:  Scozzafava in Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence (in the Northwest portion of the district, which she happens to represent in the Assembly), Owens in the Democratic Northern and Northeastern reaches of the district (Clinton/Essex/Franklin/Fulton/Hamilton), and Hoffman in the area near Syracuse (Madison/Oneida/Oswego).  This is anyone's ballgame on Tuesday, and it is going to come down to a turnout battle between to parties -- the Conservatives and the Democrats -- that don't have much of an infrastructure in the district.

Mason-Dixon has polled the Virginia Lt. Gov. and Attorney General races.  It shows Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling heading for re-election over Democrat Jody Wagner, 47%-34%.  State Senator Ken Cuccinelli leads Delegate Steve Shannon 46%-32%.  Everything is pointing toward a Republican blowout up and down the ticket in the Old Dominion.

A hat tip to the first reader who can give me specifically what the title refers to.

Research 2000, in conjunction with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, has polled the Arkansas Senate race.  The good news for Blanche Lincoln is that she leads her opponents; she leads Gilbert Baker 41%-39% and she leads Curtis Coleman 43%-38%.  The bad news is that I follow Senate races like Kirstie Alley follows the Swiss Made Fudge catalog, and I still  have to look up who Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman are (the answer, according to Politics1, is "state senate minority leader" and "Republican activist").  Senators who have trouble getting to 40%, let alone 50%, against completely unknown opponents don't last long.

I should probably add that the internals are about as bad for Lincoln:  she has a 41% favorable rating, 47% think she's out of touch with Arkansas voters (38% say in touch), and 51% think she's an ineffective Senator.

Republican polling outfit Neighborhood Research shows Chris Christie up by seven points heading into next Tuesday's elections, 42%-35%-8%.   The dataset of 319 respondents is awfully low, and it seems unlikely that 15% of New Jersey's electorate is really undecided this late in the game.  In the "definite" voter category, Christie's lead expands to 44%-35%-8%.  This is good news for Christie in a way, because it indicates that the absolute most likely voters are leaning his way.  Since turnout is not expected to be robust, those voters who actually turn out may be more likely to vote Christie than the polls are currently indicating.

The poll also measured the generic vote in state assembly races, and shows Republicans leading 45%-34%.  Given the odd dynamics of the three-way race at the top of the ticket, this may be the best measure of how the state is actually leaning on Tuesday.

A lot of Republicans have talked up their chances in California 10, a seat being vacated by Ellen Tauscher.  Tauscher won the district from Bill Baker in 1996, but there has been substantial redistricting since then, making the district much more Democratic.  Still, these voters have shown some willingness to pull the lever for Republican candidates; Arnold Schwarzenegger carried the district twice, the second time by more than his statewide average.

The latest SurveyUSA polling should provide a little bit of cold water on this theory.  It shows Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leading Republican businessman David Harmer by ten points, 50%-40%, with 4% undecided (6% to "others").  A ten point win wouldn't be a huge cause for celebration among Democrats in a district Obama got 65% of the vote in, but a vote in Congress is a vote in Congress.

If you're a Republican still looking for a way for Harmer to win, it's probably this:  The voter registration numbers in the district are 47% Democratic, 29% Republican, with the remainder spread among various parties.  The SUSA polling is 52%D, 32%R, and 16%I.  This isn't a year where I expect Democratic turnout to overperform registration statistics in the district.  But to be clear, this isn't a year where I expect the Republican to win a district like CA-10.

A little Friday afternoon humor. Have you seen Alan Grayson's new ad that's running on all the liberal blogs?

After a brief surge from Gov. Jon Corzine (D), new polls today have brought the RCP Average for New Jersey back even.

One of those new polls is from Rasmussen poll, the second this week, which shows little change in the gubernatorial race.

General Election Matchup
Christie 46 (unch vs. last poll, 10/26)
Corzine 43 (unch)
Daggett 8 (+1)
Und 3 (-1)

Rasmussen notes that Corzine fares better among voters less likely to turn out on Election Day, which is one reason why President Obama is coming back this weekend. "Still, even among supporters of the president, there is some reluctance to embrace Corzine," he adds.

As for Daggett: "While more than 20% of the state's voters have considered voting for Daggett at some point along the way, his actual support has been declining over the past couple of weeks," Rasmussen finds.

Another new poll conducted by Zogby for Stockton College finds Corzine leading 40-39, with Daggett at 14. This is the first statewide survey from Zogby.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) leads by 11 points in his bid for re-election, according to a new Civitas Institute poll (Oct. 20-21, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%) -- the second survey on Burr's re-election hopes to be released today.

The Elon University Poll out earlier today found that just 19% of North Carolina adults think Burr deserves re-election. The Civitas poll, however, finds Burr well ahead of Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, though still under 50%.

Burr 44
Marshall 33
Und 23

Civitas asked supporters of both candidates whether they were definitely for, probably for, or just leaning toward voting for them -- 33% said they were definitely voting for Burr compared to just 18% who said the same about Marshall.

"Burr is in a very good position right now relative to his potential rival," said Civitas executive director Francis De Luca. "Not only does he lead by 10 points, but his base of support is nearly twice as strong as Marshall's. In fact, more voters are solidly in Burr's camp than show support for Marshall."

Not since 1968 has the Senate seat currently held by Richard Burr (N.C.) been won in re-election, and the seat has switched parties in every election since 1980. Whether Burr can break both trends remains to be seen.

With the economy atop the list of important issues to North Carolinians, Burr's electoral outlook a year from now could look drastically different than it does today -- depending on how much the economy improves and how voters see Burr's role in it.

Today, less than one-in-five North Carolina adults think Burr deserves re-election, according to the new Elon University Poll (Oct. 26-29, 703 A, MoE +/- 3.8%), while 42 percent say it's time for someone new to have a chance.

Rather than showing a severe disapproval of Burr's service, however, the survey shows that voters aren't tuned in yet to the race. Just 22% disapprove of the job he's doing and 22% are dissatisfied with his representation, but his positive marks aren't much higher. A large chunk say they simply don't know.

President Obama's approval rating is at 53% -- up 3 points from his Nov. 2008 election take -- however just 43% approve of the way he's handling the economy. Voters are split on how much confidence they have in Congress, and just 30% say the country is going in the right direction.

"Citizens appear agitated with the perceived lack of progress that Congress, the president, and their senators have made in addressing their main concern -- the economy," said Elon polling director Hunter Bacot. "It will be interesting to see just how long their patience with this administration and Congress will last."