Gov. David Paterson (D) "can't catch a break" from New York voters, a new Marist survey bluntly states. Though his approval rating has ticked up slightly, it's still an abysmal 20 percent, and voters would likely dump him in either a primary or general election campaign. Only 27 percent of all voters, and 32 percent of Democrats, want him to run for re-election. Meanwhile, 67 percent of all voters, and 77 percent of Democrats, want Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) to run.

Primary Election Matchup
Cuomo 70 (-1 from last poll, 6/23-25)
Paterson 23 (-1)
Unsure 7 (unch)

The RCP Average of the potential primary shows Cuomo more than 40 points ahead.

General Election Matchup
Giuliani 60 (+6)
Paterson 34 (-3)
Unsure 6 (-3)

Lazio 43 (+3)
Paterson 43 (+2)
Unsure 14 (-5)

Cuomo and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) are still the wild cards -- should they choose to run, they both would likely be the nominees. But neither has made any moves yet. Former Rep. and 2000 Senate nominee Rick Lazio (R) will be kicking off his campaign next week. Here's the latest polling on a GOP race:

Primary Election Matchup
Giuliani 83 (+6 from last poll, 6/23-25)
Lazio 13 (-3)
Unsure 4 (-3)

Should Cuomo be the Democratic nominee, Marist finds he'll beat Lazio 71-21, and Giuliani 53-43.

The survey of 805 voters was conducted September 8-10, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. The Democratic sample of 354 voters had a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percent, while the sample of 225 Republicans had a margin of error of +/- 6.5 percent.

Roll Call reports that Democratic Reps. Maxine Waters (D-Ca) and Jesse Jackson (D-Il) and Republican Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo) are under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.

Look at the top headline under "latest news" on CNN.com:

I suppose that's one way of characterizing a piece of legislation that has attracted the support of zero Republicans.

When Governor Bill Ritter appointed Michael Bennett to the Senate, it sent tongues wagging across Denver.  How could Bennett, who had never run a race in his life, hold onto the seat if the environment soured for Democrats?

It looks like we're going to find out.  The environment has soured for Democrats, and its reflected in Bennett's poll numbers.  He trails former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton 45%-36% in the latest Rasmussen polling.  But even if state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff manages to oust Bennett in the Democratic primary, Norton still leads by a 42%-34% margin.

This race increasingly looks like it leans toward the Republicans, at least for now.

In the latest Quinnipiac survey in the Ohio Senate race, both Democratic candidates lead likely GOP nominee Rob Portman in hypothetical general election matchups. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both also lead Cleveland area car dealer Tom Ganley (Sept. 10-13, 1074 RV, MoE +/- 3%).

For the Democratic primary, 55% remain undecided as Fisher leads Brunner 26%-17% -- a 6-point margin increase for Fisher since July. In the GOP primary, Portman leads Ganley 27%-9%.

General Election Matchups
Fisher 42 (+5 vs. last poll, July 7)
Portman 31 (-2)
Und 26 (nc)

Brunner 39 (+4)
Portman 34 (nc)
Und 25 (-4)

Fisher 41 (+5)
Ganley 29 (-1)
Und 27 (-4)

Brunner 39 (+4)
Ganley 31 (nc)
Und 27 (-4)

In the RCP Averages for the two most likely general election matchups, Fisher leads Portman by 9.0 points and Brunner leads Portman by 5.7 points.

President Obama returns to majority approval in the state, as 53% now approve of the job he's doing; last month he was down to 49%. The president is also more trusted to handle health care than congressional Republicans by a 49%-28% margin.

"Perhaps it's because the poll was taken immediately after the President's nationally-televised prime-time speech to Congress, but Democratic fortunes in Ohio have improved slightly across-the- board," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Not only have the President's numbers improved, but so have those of Gov. Ted Strickland and the party's two U.S. Senate candidates."

Over at Politico, Josh Kraushaar writes:

After spending much of August recuperating from prostate cancer surgery, embattled Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) has seen his political standing improve, at least according to a new poll commissioned by the Daily Kos.

The poll shows Dodd's approval rating almost as high as his disapproval rating: 43 percent of Connecticut voters view him favorably, while 47 percent view him unfavorably. Those still aren't great numbers, but there are at about the same level as Dodd's Democratic Senate colleague Joseph Lieberman.

And Dodd also only trails former Republican congressman Rob Simmons by four points, 46 to 42 percent. In a July Quinnipiac poll, Dodd trailed Simmons by nine points. . . .

Dodd is still one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for re-election, lagging behind a GOP challenger in a solidly-Democratic state. But, with the worst headlines behind him, it looks like he's already hit rock bottom, and has been stabilizing his political standing.

This commits one of the most basic errors in poll interpretation:  Conducting an apples-to-oranges comparison of polls taken by different pollsters, and doing so without any reference point.  Different pollsters use different questionnaires, weight their polls differently, and even conduct their polls with different methodologies (live voice vs. automated phones), which makes it difficult to draw conclusions by conducting cross-pollster comparisons.

Here, Kraushaar compares the DailyKos (D)/R2k poll with the recent Quinnipiac poll and concludes that Dodd has bottomed out.  But take a gander at the RCP average for the Connecticut Senate race.  Note first that one could just as easily compare the Rasmussen Reports poll to the Quinnipiac poll, and conclude that Dodd's numbers are worsening.  Alternatively, one could note that the Q poll results and the DailyKos poll results are well within each others' error margins, and that Dodd's margin may well have increased, decreased, or stayed the same.

But perhaps the best approach is to compare DailyKos to itself, and to compare previous DailyKos results to other pollsters in the field at the same time.  In March, DailyKos had Dodd leading by five.  Compared to itself, DailyKos actually shows a substantial (though not statistically significant at 95% confidence) decline in Dodd's numbers.

Also, note that Quinnipiac was in the field at roughly the same time as DailyKos back in March.  It showed a 16-point deficit for Dodd.  And when it polled right before DailyKos, it showed a 1-point deficit.  Flipping quickly through varying race pages at RCP, I note that DailyKos tends to come up with better results for Democrats than other pollsters, including Quinnipiac (see, e.g., Pennsylvania).  That doesn't indicate DailyKos is wrong, it just means that its methodology is somewhat different than Q's, making it more difficult to compare the two.  It certainly makes it more difficult to conclude that things are improving for Dodd just because a DailyKos poll result is a few points better for Dodd than a Q poll result.

This isn't to say that Dodd hasn't bottomed out -- it's too early to say either way.  But these polls don't demonstrate that he has.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) indicated today that his re-election prospects will be looking far better next year once the economy is back on track.

"It appears as though this recession has bottomed out and that change is taking place," Reid said at a press conference today. "Now, we all know that unemployment always lags behind economic recovery. So I feel that Nevada, like the rest of the states in the country, are going next year to see economic recovery."

Reid said Nevada and the country as a whole will begin to feel more positively "once that takes place," and presumably his re-election chances will look better than they do today.

At the press conference, the senator was answering a direct question regarding his re-election and comments that one of his potential GOP opponents, attorney Danny Tarkanian, made regarding the senator not spending much time in his home state.

"The Republicans have a primary next June," said Reid. "At last count there were 10 Republicans enrolled in that primary. I think the people of Nevada know me real well, they know what I've done over the years. ... I have a job to do for the people of Nevada and the people of this country."

Reid is facing such a difficult environment that political handicappers say the race is anyone's game. A Rasmussen automated poll, conducted yesterday of 500 likely voters and released today, finds him trailing Tarkanian by 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent) and Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden by 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent).

Turns out the metaphor I used in my post on lying vs. wishful thinking involving a greyhound and cheetah was a bit less demonstrative than I thought. Ironically enough, I had use tortoise and hare in the original draft, but switched it during an edit. Lesson learned: always go with your first instinct!

Republican Chris Christie continues to lead incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D), though both have lost support since the entrance of independent candidate Chris Daggett, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling (Sept. 11-14, 500 RV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Corzine wins less than two-thirds (64%) of the Democratic vote, while Christie wins 79% of the GOP vote and holds a 48% to 29% lead among independents.

"It's looking like it's going to be tougher and tougher for Jon Corzine to pull this thing out," said PPP president Dean Debnam. "Hard attacks on Christie haven't closed the gap enough and the presence of Daggett in the race is giving disaffected Democrats an outlet to cast a protest vote."

Christie 44
Corzine 35
Daggett 13

Christie now leads by 7.2 points in the RCP Average

A new Daily Kos/Research2000 survey finds Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading potential Republican opponents, though she carries just a 43% approval rating against a 49% disapproval (Sept. 8-10, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%).

Many expect the two-term senator to receive a boost after winning the Agriculture Committee chairmanship last week, but she appears headed for a competitive re-election nonetheless. That's a far cry from her fellow Arkansas senator, Mark Pryor, who faced no GOP opposition last year. Other approval ratings for Democrats in the state: Pryor 50 percent, Gov. Mike Beebe 66 percent, and President Obama 41 percent.

Lincoln wins as little as 44% support against State Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is an unknown to 73 percent of voters. State Sen. Kim Hendren and businessmen Curtis Coleman and Tom Cox have even less name ID, yet enough undecided voters keep Lincoln sub-50%.

Lincoln 44 - Baker 37 - Und 19
Lincoln 45 - Coleman 37 - Und 18
Lincoln 46 - Cox 29 - Und 25
Lincoln 47 - Hendren 28 - Und 25