Meet Paul Kirk

The Boston Globe, all over the Kennedy replacement story, reports today that Vicki Kennedy has endorsed former DNC Chairman Paul Kirk to temporarily fill the vacant Massachusetts Senate seat. The Globe reported this morning that Ted's two sons, Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) and Edward Jr., have also endorsed Kirk.

Gov. Deval Patrick is still awaiting the bill that would allow him to make an interim appointment, as the Legislature finalizes the legislation. Patrick's choice will serve until the Jan. 19 special election.

Here is a quick bio on Kirk, provided by the Globe:

Kirk, a 71-year-old attorney who lives on Cape Cod, is seen as a top choice because of his ties to the Kennedy family and his deep knowledge of Washington politics. He worked as a special assistant to Senator Kennedy from 1969 to 1977, and is currently the chairman of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation. Last month, he served as master of ceremonies at a widely watched memorial service the night before Senator Kennedy's funeral.

Kirk is also familiar with many on Kennedy's former staff, and could help smooth the transition.

When questioned on MSNBC this afternoon, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) said he would hold of commenting on his newest colleague until the Legislature completes its work on the bill and Patrick chooses someone.

"I know Paul very, very well and admire him greatly. He's a friend and have known him for many, many years," said Kerry. "But I don't want to comment on any sort of rumors or reports or speculation about who may or may not be in the running for that."


GA Gov Poll: Oxendine, Barnes Lead Primaries

Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R) and former governor Roy Barnes (D) lead the packs in the respective party primaries in the 2010 Georgia gubernatorial race, a new Strategic Vision survey finds (Sept. 18-20, 800 LV, MoE +/- 3%). The two also led in a July poll, while Sec. of State Karen Handel has jumped into second place ahead of Rep. Nathan Deal.

GOP Primary
John Oxendine 38
Karen Handel 15
Nathan Deal 10
Eric Johnson 6
Austin Scott 3
Ray McBerry 2
Jeff Chapman 1
Undecided 25

Dem Primary
Roy Barnes 45
Thurbert Baker 30
David Poythress 5
Dubose Porter 2
Undecided 18


Fundraising Day for KY Republicans

The two Republicans battling for the nomination in the race to replace Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R) are both expecting a big boost in fundraising today.

Twenty-three GOP senators are hostinig a fundraiser for Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Washington at the headquarters of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The event is tabbed at $500 per head.

To coincide with the national party's assistance for Grayson, Rand Paul, son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, is holding another one-day fundraising moneybomb. Paul took in nearly a half million dollars with a similar online fundraising marathon last month, and the method helped fund his father's 2008 presidential bid.


Blunt, Carnahan Dead Even In Missouri

Rasmussen's first look at the Missouri Senate race finds a dead heat in what will be one of 2010's marquee contests.

General Election Matchup
Blunt (R) 46
Carnahan (D) 46
Not Sure 5

Rep. Roy Blunt is viewed more favorably than Robin Carnahan, Missouri's secretary of state -- 57% to 52%. Carnahan's unfavorables are also higher, 44% to 33%.

In Missouri, a 2008 battleground that went narrowly for John McCain, President Obama's approval rating is 44 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. Thirty-eight percent favor his health care proposal, while 59 percent are opposed. Despite Obama's repeated arguments to the contrary, 57 percent say health care costs will rise if passed, 72 percent say it will add to the deficit, and 64 percent say it's very likely that taxes will raise as a result of the plan.

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted on September 21, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.


NJ Gov Poll: Christie +7

A new Rasmussen survey finds Republican Chris Christie leading New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine by 7 points (Sept 21, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%), just a 1-point margin decrease from earlier this month.

Christie 48 (+2 vs. last poll, Sept. 10)
Corzine 41 (+3)
Daggett 6 (nc)
Und 5

Christie now leads by 6.7 points in the RCP Average.

Just 39% hold a favorable view of the incumbent Corzine, while 60% see him unfavorably, including 39% who have a very unfavorable impression of him. Christie enjoys a 48% favorable rating, with 46% unfavorable. Voters also say they trust Christie more on taxes, cutting government spending and cracking down on government corruption.

Two in five said taxes were the most important issue when deciding whom to vote for in November.


Carlyfornia Dreamin'

Although she has yet to formally announce a bid for Senate in California, Carly Fiorina, the former HP CEO, has just launched her campaign website.

It includes the tagline: "Carlyfornia Dreamin' "

Upon entering the page, a series of phrases flash across the screen: "It's day & night. It's dogs & cats. It's good & bad. It's Carly vs. Boxer. Coming soon?"

Fiorina currently has 16 supporters on her Facebook page and 48 followers on Twitter.

The netroots have begun making fun of the site's simplicity, including by releasing this video titled, "Worst Political Website Ever."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also recently released a web video targeting Fiorina's record. The NRSC responded to the video this morning in a statement to Politico, in which spokesman Brian Walsh said the increased attention the Dems are paying to an unannounced candidate "only speaks to the growing vulnerability of Barbara Boxer."


MA Senate Approves Law Change

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is one step closer to regaining the gubernatorial power of temporarily appointing someone to the U.S. Senate. Ted Kennedy pushed for the rule change shortly before his death so that Democrats would have has many votes as possible with health care reform on its way to the Senate floor.

From the Boston Globe:

The Senate approved the measure by a 24-16 vote, leaving one final procedural hurdle in both chambers before the bill heads to Patrick's desk. The House and Senate are expected to enact the bill on Wednesday, a formality unlikely to derail the effort.

Patrick has pushed for the bill and could sign it as early as Wednesday. Administration officials have been considering several possible appointees, but have declined to release the names out of concern that such a step could affect the legislative debate.

Among the names frequently mentioned by observers are Michael S. Dukakis, the former governor; Paul G. Kirk Jr., the former Democratic National Committee chairman and an aide to Kennedy; Charles J. Ogletree, Harvard Law School professor; and Evelyn Murphy, former lieutenant governor.

Patrick has said he would like to appoint someone who will not run for the seat in the January special election. In an editorial this morning, the Globe endorsed Dukakis.


NY Gov, Sen Poll: Cuomo +13 vs. Giuliani

New York Gov. David Paterson has reportedly rebuffed the White House in its attempts to nudge him from the 2010 gubernatorial race, but a new survey from Siena College finds that an overwhelming majority of voters feel he isn't getting the job done and doesn't possess the leadership skills necessary to be governor (Sept. 13-17, 792 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%).

Paterson has a 29% favorable rating and just 18% say he's doing a good or excellent job as governor -- 80% say he's doing fair or poorly, while 59% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Matching the months of April and May, 71% again say they would prefer someone else if Paterson runs in 2010.

"Even Democrats, by a significant margin, believe the Governor is well intentioned, ineffective, bad on fiscal issues and lacking leadership," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg This may explain why Paterson is again near record low favorability and job performance ratings."

Nearly half of voters want Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to run for governor next year, rather than run for re-election. If he does, he currently holds significant leads over Paterson in the Dem primary, and Rudy Giuliani and former Rep. Rick Lazio in the general election.

Dem Primary
Cuomo 66 (+1 vs. last poll, Aug. 24)
Paterson 20 (-3)
Und 14 (+2)

General Election Matchups
Cuomo 52 (-1)
Giuliani 39 (-1)
Und (+2)

Cuomo 64 (-2)
Lazio 18 (+2)
Und 18 (nc)

Paterson 39 (+1)
Lazio 35 (-2)
Und 26 (+1)

Giuliani 52 (-4)
Paterson 35 (+2)
Und 13 (+2)

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand still hasn't registered with the general public, as just 53% know enough about her to form an opinion -- 29% favorable, 24% unfavorable. That could be having an effect on her horse race numbers, as Giuliani currently leads her in a hypothetical matchup, 46%-38%.


O'Malley Leads Potential Maryland Rematch

A Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies poll of Maryland voters finds that Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is in a fairly comfortable position as he gears up for a re-election bid, leading former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by double-digits in a potential rematch.

General Election Matchups
O'Malley 49
Ehrlich 38
Undecided 13

O'Malley 52
Steele 37
Undecided 11

O'Malley's job approval rating is 48 / 37, largely unchanged from earlier this year and a big improvement from where he stood in 2008. Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) is in much stronger as she considers another run, with a 67 percent job approval rating. Also, 55 percent of voters say they'd vote to re-elect her, while 19 percent would replace her and 26 percent would consider alternatives.

Favorability Ratings:
O'Malley 47 / 28
Mikulski 64 / 23
Ehrlich 42 / 26
Steele 40 / 34

Ehrlich said last week that he had no timetable for a decision, and didn't feel pressured to make one soon. Two other Republicans have announced tentative plans to run, contingent ultimately on whether Ehrlich does.

Three potential Democratic primary challengers to O'Malley were tested, but most were largely unknown statewide. The best-known was former Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, who dropped out of the 2006 primary race, citing depression.

The survey of 833 registered voters was conducted September 8-17, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.


MN Voters Approve of Pawlenty, Think He'll Run

While most Minnesotans think Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty will run for president in 2012 and half worry about his extensive out-of-state travel, the second-term governor still enjoys a 56% job approval rating, according to a new Rasmussen survey (Sept. 15, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Nearly three-quarters (72%) believe Pawlenty will run for the GOP nomination, and 50% think he will win and take on President Obama in the general election. Exactly half of voters are also concerned by the amount of time he has spent outside Minnesota in recent months, and 43% disapprove of the job he's doing as governor.

As for the state's two Democratic senators, 56% say Amy Klobuchar is performing at a good or excellent level; 41% say the same about Al Franken, including 79% of Democrats. After just three months in office, nearly one-third of voters say Franken is performing poorly.



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