Rasmussen released new Senate race surveys today in New York (Sept. 22, 500 LV) and California (Sept. 23, 500 LV), where Democrats are running to keep their seats, as well as Ohio (Sept. 23, 500 LV), where Sen. George Voinovich (R) is retiring.

California Sen. Barbara Boxer, running for a fourth term, leads her two potential GOP rivals, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

Boxer 49 - Fiorina 39 - Und 8

Boxer 46 - DeVore 37 - Und 10

In New York, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- in her first year in office after filling in for Hillary Clinton -- leads former governor George Pataki, who still has not revealed whether he plans to run.

Gillibrand 44 - Pataki 41 - Und 4

A Marist survey (Sept. 22, 616 RV) out yesterday, though, found both Pataki (45%-41%) and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (51%-40%) leading Gillibrand.

In the race for Ohio's open seat, former OMB director and congressman Rob Portman (R) holds slim leads over his two potential Democratic opponents, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner.

Portman 41 - Fisher 40 - Und 14

Portman 40 - Brunner 38 - Und 18

Attorney General Mike Cox (R) leads Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) by 13 points, according to a new Detroit News/Mitchell Research survey (600 LV). Cox also leads in the GOP primary against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, investor Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George.

General Election
Cox 45
Cherry 32

GOP Primary
Cox 30
Hoekstra 23
Bouchard 11
Snyder 2
George 2
Und 33

The survey was released as the five Republican candidates will gather "on Mackinac Island this weekend for the Republican Leadership Conference," the Detroit News reports. "They'll take part in the first full-fledged debate of the campaign Saturday morning. Sponsored by the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance, the debate will be broadcast by radio stations across the state."

The latest Democracy Corps (D) poll has Republican Chris Christie's lead over Jon Corzine down to a single point, 40%-39%.    Independent Chris Daggett takes 11 percent of the vote.

Before Republicans get too worked up about this, its worth observing that Democracy Corps has typically found a much closer race than other pollsters.  They haven't shown more than a five-point lead for Christie since June of 2009, while no other pollster has shown less than a five-point Christie advantage.  That doesn't mean that Democracy Corps is wrong, just that its seeing something that no other pollster is seeing.

Before the inclusion of this poll, Christie was leading by 7 in the RCP average.

You can't turn on the TV without seeing Michael Moore's mug promoting his new movie. As I type, the populist filmmaker is on CNN, where Wolf Blitzer is trying to goad him into admitting that he is a socialist. Moore doesn't bite, insisting instead that he is a Christian. Okay.

I was an early dropout from the Michael Moore fan club. I left after watching his 1989 indictment of General Motors' cruelty to its workers, “Roger and Me.” Then a business reporter, I appreciated the stresses facing Detroit's shrinking workforce. But I also knew that one of GM's problems was the bountiful compensation it had negotiated with labor. The surviving employees used to say that GM stood for Generous Motors -- a generosity in health benefits, pensions and wages that this year's crisis brought to a very public end.

Moore came back into my field of interest during the 2000 presidential election. As a Ralph Nader supporter, Moore worked tirelessly to spoil the election for Al Gore. I found Gore a compelling choice, but the left wing deemed him inadequately liberal and thus had to be punished.

Performing as Nader's warm-up act, Moore would bounce onto the stage and tell audiences that they'd be better off voting for “that potted plant” (he used one as a prop) than for Al Gore or George Bush. More about Moore and the Nader traitors here.

As you may remember, many naive liberals were persuaded to vote for Nader, enough of them to throw the Florida outcome into play, thus leaving the Bush forces to clamp on victory. If there were a license to practice progressive politics, Michael Moore would have lost his then and there.

Frankly, I can't stand the sight of him. Hold a grudge? Moi?

A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll finds Creigh Deeds (D) within 4 points of Bob McDonnell (R) in the race for governor of Virginia, Politico reports (Sept. 23, 602 RV, MoE +/- 3.8%). McDonnell has led since the beginning of the general election campaign, though the race has tightened in the last few weeks.

McDonnell leads by 22 points (55%-33%) among independents, while Deeds wins more loyal support among Democrats (89%) than McDonnell among Republicans (79%).

McDonnell 48
Deeds 44
No Opinion 7

McDonnell leads by 4.4 points in the RCP Average.

The new poll numbers offer some good news for Deeds on a day of some not-so-good news -- former Gov. Doug Wilder refused to endorse him, despite the request of the White House and Gov. Tim Kaine. Wilder went so far as to criticize Deeds's conservative stance on gun control and willingness to raise taxes during a down economy.

There is now supporting data for those concerned about the political repercussions of Gov. Deval Patrick's (D) push for a law change giving him the power to appoint an interim senator.

A new survey by Suffolk University, released the same day Patrick appointed Paul Kirk to the open Senate seat, finds 45% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Patrick, while just 42% view him favorably (Sept. 12-15, 500 RV, MoE +/- 4.4%). He has a similar 42% job approval rating, with 49% disapproving. Just 29% say he deserves to be re-elected; 56% say it's time to elect someone else.

Still, there are no signs that the state is hankering for a change in party control. Asked whether it's time for a Republican governor, 54% said no and 35% said yes. And Patrick outperforms potential GOP and independent challengers: Charlie Baker (R), the former Harvard Pilgrim CEO; Christy Mihos (R), a businessman; and State Treas. Tim Cahill, an independent.

Patrick 36 - Baker 14 - Cahill 23 - Und 26

Patrick 36 - Mihos 17 - Cahill 24 - Und 23

When Paul Kirk is sworn in tomorrow, he will be the sixth unelected member of the United States Senate. Five other sitting senators first took the office not through election, but via gubernatorial appointment.

Here's the list:
Paul Kirk (D-MA)
George LeMieux (R-FL)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Ted Kaufman (D-DE)
Roland Burris (D-IL)
Roger Wicker (R-MS) -- elected to full term in 2008
John Barrasso (R-WY) -- elected to full term in 2008
Robert Menendez (D-NJ) -- elected to full term in 2006
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) -- elected to full term in 2004
Dan Akaka (D-HI) -- elected to full term in 1990

Last month, we noted the restrictions that have been placed in some states on gubernatorial appointment powers. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) is behind a constitutional amendment that would mandate special elections nationwide.

While Iowa's incumbent Democratic governor faces a potential uphill re-election next year, things are looking pretty good for Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), according to a new Rasmussen poll (Sept. 22, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

The Des Moines Register reported earlier this week that Grassley's approval rating had dropped nearly 20 points since the beginning of the year, as he's now in the middle of the hot health care debate as the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee.

Rasmussen's horse race numbers, though, show him in no danger against potential challenger Bob Krause (D).

Grassley 56
Krause 30
Und 7

Less than 24 hours after the state legislature gave him the power to do so, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick appointed Paul Kirk to the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy. Kirk will serve in Kennedy's place until after the January 19 special election, the winner of which will hold the seat until the regularly scheduled 2012 election.

Kirk was favored by the Kennedy family, including Kennedy's widow Vicki and his two sons, Edward Jr. and Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.).

At the 11 a.m. press conference, Patrick said Kirk, 71, will not seek the open seat in the special election, and Kirk reiterated the remark.

"This appointment is a profound honor and I accept it with sincere humility," said Kirk. "As the governor said, and just so you hear it from me, consistent with Senator Kennedy's wishes and the expectations of the governor and the legislators, I shall not be a candidate in the special eletion for the United States Senate."

Patrick said the decision to appoint an interim senator was made with "the vital interests of the Commonwealth" in mind.

"The issues before the Congress and the nation are simply too important to Massachusetts for us to be one voice short," said Patrick. "The legislature has granted the governor the authority to appoint someone to be that second voice in the United States Senate until the January election."

Patrick thanked the legislature for its "swift action." He signed the legislation this morning and sent a letter to the secretary of state, putting it into effect immediately.

"Paul was the close and loyal adviser and confidant to Senator Kennedy from 1969 to 1977 formally, but ever since really," said Patrick. "In addition he was chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1985 to 1989. He is a distinguished lawyer, volunteer and citizen, and he shares the sense of service that so distinguished Senator Kennedy."

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) endorsed the move at the press conference.

"I believe that the choice that the governor has made is completely in keeping with of the change of the law that the legislature undertook and the intent of those of us who advocated for the change, including Senator Kennedy," said Kerry. "This is a caretaker appointment -- a gentle and difficult transition -- a kind of stewardship. And Paul Kirk will be a superb steward of this seat."

In a released statement, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Kirk would be an "effective adovocate."

"As a former staffer and associate of Sen. Kennedy and member of the board of directors for the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation, Paul Kirk embodies the values of Sen. Kennedy," said Reid. "He also has a long-standing appreciation of the issues that matter to the great people of Massachusetts."

President Obama called Kirk a "distinguished leader" and "an excellent, interim choice to carry on" Kennedy's legacy.

That's what Rasmussen Reports is predicting if former Governor Terry Bransted decides to run for Governor again.   He leads current Governor Chet Culver 54%-34%.   Even if Bransted doesn't run, Culver finds himself in trouble, as Republican Bob Vander Plaats leads him 43%-39%.