Despite starting the week on tough ground after the Washington Post dug up a socially conservative policy thesis he wrote 20 years ago, Bob McDonnell is so far maintaining his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia.

A Rasmussen survey released today found McDonnell leading by 9 points (Sept. 1, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%), nearly the same as last month.

Asked about the thesis, just 49% said they'd followed the news about it even somewhat closely, and the same percentage said the issue is not important. More than a third (36%) say McDonnell's writings are at least somewhat important, and 55% still hold a favorable impression of him -- higher than Deeds's 48% favorable rating.

McDonnell 51 (+2 vs. last poll, Aug. 11)
Deeds 42 (+1)
Und 6 (-1)

McDonnell leads by 9.8 points in the RCP Average for Virginia Governor

On a scale from one to 10, how much respect do you have for the disgraced former Democratic governor of New York, Eliot Spitzer? When SurveyUSA asked that question of 500 New York adults yesterday, one-third said they had absolutely no respect for him.

Still, 15% said they would vote for him no matter what office he runs for while nearly half (47%) said they would need to know which office and who else was on the ballot before deciding. Four in 10 said they would oppose him no matter what.

The SurveyUSA poll was conducted the same day the New York Post reported that Spitzer had been privately discussing a political comeback, perhaps by running for state comptroller or the Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand (D).

When matched up against the current governor of New York, David Paterson, 41% said Spitzer was more qualified to be governor and 24% said Paterson was more qualified. Rudy Giuliani, though, trounced both Spitzer (59%-25%) and Paterson (61%-27%).

The jostling for Ted Kennedy's U.S. Senate seat is well underway. May non-Kennedys apply?

According to local conventional wisdom, writes The Boston Globe's Joan Vennochi, former Rep. Joseph Kennedy II “has the right of first refusal.” Associated Press quotes Democratic strategist Dan Payne saying that Joe “wouldn't be a Kennedy if he didn't give serious consideration to running for what is known as the ‘Kennedy seat' in Massachusetts.”

Bet you didn't know that families may own seats in the U.S. Senate.

Ted's seat was earlier held by his brother John F. Kennedy, who left it vacant to become president in 1960. Ted wasn't then old enough to be a U.S. Senator, so the family arranged to have John's roommate, Benjamin Smith, appointed to the seat. Smith kept the chair warm for two years until Ted turned 30 and could assume what was rightfully his.

Not only do Kennedy courtiers lay claim to Ted's seat in Massachusetts, they recently declared Hillary Clinton's Senate chair in New York to be part of the Kennedy inheritance. The objective was to slip Caroline Kennedy into the position. (Caroline didn't take well to the rough-and-tumble, and New York Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand eventually won the appointment.)

The New York claim was based on Robert F. Kennedy's holding the seat for three years before his assassination in 1968. (That Daniel Patrick Moynihan subsequently occupied that chair for over 20 years did not, apparently, make it a “Moynihan seat.”)

Every state and the Kennedy family get two Senate seats.  Must be somewhere in the U.S. Constitution.

www.fromaharrop.com

Virginia gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell's 14-point lead in the Public Policy Polling's survey one month ago has been cut in half. PPP's new survey finds the Republican leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by 7 points (Aug. 28-31, 596 RV, MoE +/- 4.0%).

The survey was conducted over the last four days -- the last two days of the campaign have been filled with discussion about a graduate school thesis McDonnell wrote 20 years ago, which was reported in a front page Washington Post story on Sunday.

McDonnell's favorable rating is unchanged from last month (54% down to 53%), though his unfavorable rating is up 5 points (26% to 31%). Deeds's favorable and unfavorable ratings are both up.

McDonnell 49 (-2 vs. last poll, Aug. 4)
Deeds 42 (+5)
Und 9 (-3)

McDonnell leads by 9.5 points in the RCP Average for Virginia Governor

The Republican National Committee is launching a new television ad on health care that targets senior citizens. The ad, airing nationally on cable stations as well as on other channels in Florida, features Chairman Michael Steele advocating for a "Seniors Bill of Rights."

"Join us in supporting a new Seniors' Bill of Rights. Let's agree in both parties that Congress should only consider health reform proposals that protect senior citizens," Steele says in the ad. "Oh and President Obama, it's not too late to change your mind. Stand with us and stand with senior citizens. After all, they've earned it."

The Democratic National Committee responded to the ad this morning. "Michael Steele and the Republicans are unbelievable," said DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse. "After failing to stop the President on the Recovery Act, the budget, equal pay for women and children's health care, Republicans have decided that they have no other choice when it comes to blocking health insurance reform than to lie to the American people and try to scare seniors."

Here is the ad:

It's been rumored for some time. But the Willamette Week reports that former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) will file paperwork today to seek a new term in 2010. Kitzhaber served from 1995 to 2003. The current governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, is term-limited.

A Kitzhaber run would make him the third former governor looking to reclaim his old job in 2010, with at least two more still possible.

Democrat Jerry Brown of California, who served two terms from 1975-83, has worked his way back up through local and state government as he seeks a new term. In Georgia, Democrat Roy Barnes is looking to reclaim the office he lost in 2002.

On the Republican side, Terry Branstad, who served four terms from 1983-1999, is exploring a possible return as well. The Des Moines Register reports today that he has asked Rich Schwarm, a former state Republican Party chairman, to assess the fundraising and staffing he'd need to run in 2010. He has set an October deadline to make a decision.

In Maryland, former Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) is keeping open the possibility of a re-match with Martin O'Malley, who defeated the one-term governor in 2006.

Brown and Barnes will have to survive primaries before getting the chance to run. Several Republicans are also already running in Iowa. In Maryland, Del. Patrick McDonough (R) has indicated he would not continue his gubernatorial campaign if Ehrlich runs, a decision he expects in January.

And don't look now, but the New York Post reports that Eliot Spitzer is plotting a comeback as well. But, the paper says he's looking at the state comptroller or U.S. Senate race, and not looking for his old job.

Observers of the New Jersey gubernatorial race have been waiting to see whether the tough news cycle Republican Chris Christie found himself in through much of August would shake up the race. But two new public polls out today give two different answers.

A Quinnipiac poll puts Christie ahead by 10 points, actually a boost from the prior survey which had him leading Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by 6. But an FDU/Public Mind survey also out this morning has Christie leading by just 5, down from a 6-point lead.

One notable difference between the two surveys: Quinnipiac's question includes the name of independent candidate Chris Daggett, who polls at 9 percent. The FDU survey leaves out Daggett, and only 1 percent volunteered his name. Daggett has qualified for public financing and will participate in debates.

"Chris is leading this race because he offers solutions to struggling New Jerseyans while Jon Corzine has tried to mask his miserable record with even more of his angry, partisan rhetoric," Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement. "The stakes are too high when hard working families can barely make ends meet and Jon Corzine's campaign has belittled and insulted the challenges so many in our state are facing.  Today's polls make clear that voters want change and they're going to start by changing governors."

Christie now leads by 6.5 in the updated RCP average.