We noted this in Strategy Memo, but don't miss this quote from Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds, in this morning's Washington Post. He was asked Republican attacks that he'd be an ally of the party's leadership in Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

"I'm not sure I'd know either one of them if I saw them, except I've seen them on television. I'm sure they wouldn't know me."

Deeds did appear with President Obama at a fundraiser in Northern Virginia this summer, but has otherwise kept his distance from the national party. The campaign has said that in order to win, Deeds needs to show he's a "Virginia Democrat," and not necessarily an "Obama Democrat." For good reason, too. We've noted that in every gubernatorial election since 1977, the party that holds the White House has lost the governor's mansion.

But is the sentiment Deeds expressed to the Post the kind of thing we'll hear more from vulnerable Democrats in 2010?

This just in from Gallup: the public is every bit as divided on health care today as they were a month ago. Meanwhile, yesterday President Obama spent part of his speech at the AFL-CIO picnic in Ohio making the case for health care - but in language that is virtually unchanged from the stuff that has failed miserably in his first seven months.

In many ways health care is to Obama what Iraq was to Bush. President Bush kept reciting the same points over and over until the public simply tuned him out and - even worse for a president - stopped believing what he was saying. The same seems true of Obama with health care.  Another big speech seems unlikely to change the dynamic that has settled over this debate,  nor will it be likely to move votes.

What could move votes is a change in negotiating tactics and the offering actual compromises (like tort reform) that could bring Blue Dog Democrats and Republicans on board. But Obama is in a pinch because making those compromises will cost him votes from the left.

So Obama faces a fairly stark choice: stick with the liberals and try to ram through a health care reform bill along partisan lines, or anger liberals by moving to the center and getting enough votes for passage with a more truly centrist and potentially bipartisan bill.

My guess is that he will do the former because 1) he cannot afford to lose his liberal base and believes he will have plenty of time (and a rebounding economy) to win back the middle and 2) his head, his heart, and his instincts are with progressives, not with centrists.

One can usually  ignore the fevered rumblings from Glenn Beck and other right-wing players of regular folks' emotions. But every now and then -- too often, actually -- the Obama administration throws an easy pitch down the middle. It gives them something real.

That Van Jones was relieved of his job after midnight in the middle of a long holiday weekend shows what a mistake the administration knew it had made.

Put in charge of a program advocating for "green" jobs, Jones had previously signed a petition questioning whether the Bush administration had let the Sept. 11 attacks happen to provide an excuse for invading Iraq. He used obscenities in talking about Republicans.

Jones clearly had to to go, but so should have the so-called vetter who found the San Francisco radical a reasonable fit for the Obama administration. That the job was a small one not requiring a full-bore investigation is no excuse. You didn't have to scratch deep into the sand to see that Jones was untethered, not only to political reality, but to reality in general.

Meanwhile, would someone also please re-vet Howard Dean as a Democratic spokesman? Defending Jones on "Fox News Sunday," he explained, "This guy's a Yale-educated lawyer."

That's real impressive.

www.fromaharrop.com

Attorney General Bob McDonnell, buffeted by quasi-scandal from the release of his 1989 thesis from Regent University, which contained some highly controversial statements on social issues, hasn't seen his standing slide much. McDonnell leads state Senator Creigh Deeds 54% to 42% in the latest SurveyUSA poll, largely unchanged from earlier polling. Republicans appear set (for now) to sweep the downballot races as well, as Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner 52%-42%, while Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Steve Shannon 54%-41% in the Attorney General's race.

The White House is probably not thrilled with some new numbers in the CNN/Opinion Research survey.

A bare majority still thinks President Obama is "doing enough to cooperate with the Republicans in Congress."  But what's startling is how far Obama's numbers have fallen on this question. In February, 74% said the President was doing enough to cooperate with Republicans and only 25% said he wasn't doing enough. Seven months later, that 49 point gap is down to just 5 points, with 51% saying he is doing enough to cooperate and 46% saying he's not.

Meanwhile, while Republicans remain in solidly negative territory on the question of cooperation, their numbers haven't budged at all. Seven months ago, 39% said Republicans in Congress were doing enough to cooperate with President Obama and 60% said they were not doing enough. Today those numbers are virtually identical at 36% and 60%, respectively.

To summarize, the survey shows that the public has maintained a very consistent view that Republicans need to do more to cooperate with President Obama. What has changed quite dramatically in the past seven months, however, is that a good portion of the public has shifted away from the view that President Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans and toward the view that he needs to do more.

Conservatives have been up in arms the past few days over President Obama speaking directly to students, despite the fact that it was billed as a speech "on the importance of taking responsibility for their success in school" -- which sounds fairly harmless and well-intentioned.

But conservatives, on and off the air, feel Obama has ulterior motives. One worried conservative pundit got the "chills" and wrote this:

Obama is expected to address the "challenges" facing him in Congress and will likely use that opportunity to promote global warming taxes and a Washington take-over of the country's health care system. Hearing only one side of the story, many young people could be swayed.

Were people this worried when Republican presidents of the past did the same thing? Apparently a few were. This, of course, is not the first time a president has addressed America's youth, as Andrew J. Rotherham notes on Eduwonk:

For instance George H.W. Bush gave a couple of these back-to-school style speeches as well as other speeches addressing the importance of education. In fact, in 1989 when he was criticized for doing so by Democrats, then-House of Representatives member Newt Gingrich said, “Why is it political for the president of the United States to discuss education?” He went on to argue that, ”It [the speech] was done at a nonpolitical site and was beamed to a nonpolitical audience. . . . They wanted to reach the maximum audience with the maximum effect to improve education.” Gingrich was right then and he's right now. A 1991 Bush speech was carried by CNN and PBS, by the way.

Gallup's new poll on whether or not the public supports Eric Holder's decision to investigate Bush era interrogations once again demonstrates the power now held by self-declared independents.

Democrats and Republicans were identically split along partisan lines: 73% of Democrats in favor of the investigation, 75% of Republicans against; 23% percent of Democrats against, 22% of Republicans in favor. But a majority of Independents (55%) opposed the investigation, compared to only 40% who favored it.

Though the overall number worked out to be a near even split (47% in favor, 49% oppose) because of weighting to party ID, the views of Independents should hold a disproportionate amount of influence with this White House.

Independents are the ones currently moving away from the President causing the swift erosion in his job approval rating. To restore his standing in the polls he must win them back, and that's unlikely to happen if he (and his administration) keep pursuing policies that majorities of Independents don't support.

"Is the #1 most powerful person in the Senate really looking out for Nevada?"

That's what a dark new web ad asks before giving a date -- 09-09-09 -- which a Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter guesses will be when someone will make a "major announcement."

A poll released yesterday found Reid with a 36% favorable rating and trailing two potential GOP challengers.

In the race to replace retiring Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R), Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) leads his two Democratic challengers in general election matchups, as well as Rand Paul, his Republican primary opponent, according to a new survey from DailyKos/Research 2000 (Aug 31-Sep 2, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Running on the Dem side are Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.

Dem Primary
Mongiardo 37 - Conway 30 - Und 18

GOP Primary
Grayson 40 - Paul 25 - Und 17

General Election
Grayson 45 - Mongiardo 41 - Und 14
Grayson 46 - Conway 40 - Und 14

Paul 37 - Mongiardo 42 - Und 21
Paul 37 - Conway 41 - Und 22

President Obama isn't thought highly of in Kentucky, which he lost to John McCain by 17 points in 2008. Just 34% hold a favorable view of the president, with 63% unfavorable. Also, only 51% believe Obama was born in the United States, while 20% don't believe he was and 29% aren't sure.

All is not lost for Democrats, though, as Gov. Steve Beshear (D) has a 49%/42% favorable rating, higher than that of GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell (44%/51%), the Senate minority leader.

Voters were split on whether a public health care option should be included in Congress's reform efforts -- 46% support an option, 45% oppose.

From day one, the Obama administration has prided itself on being able to multitask. It shrugged off the notion that the president was overexposed, or taking on too much all at once.

Here's some food for thought: since President Obama left Washington for his on-and-off-and-on again vacation on August 23, he's reversed ever so slightly a slide in his approval rating, according to Gallup.

After nearly dropping below 50 percent, his numbers have ticked back up to 55 percent in the latest rolling average. In that time, Obama left for Martha's Vineyard, spoke at Ted Kennedy's funeral, then shifted to a "staycation" in Washington this week before heading off to Camp David.

You can see this recent uptick as well in the RCP Average.