Like Rasmussen (linked below), Democracy Corps (D) polling shows the race for New Jersey Governor more-or-less unchanged.  Their polling has Chris Christie leading Governor Jon Corzine 41%-38%, with 10% for independent Chris Daggett.  The last Democracy Corps poll had Christie up 43%-41%.  Christie is definitely off of his midsummer highs, when he was routinely polling around 50%.  On the other hand, Governor Corzine hasn't led in a poll since January, and hasn't been above 44% in a poll since August of last year.  I still think that we can expect the majority of the undecideds to break toward the Democrat here, but Corzine can't feel good that even Democratic pollsters have him hovering around 40%.

A new Rasmussen survey finds Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (D) in dangerous territory against two potential GOP challengers. Ritter trails former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) by 5 points and leads state Sen. Minority Leader Josh Penry (R) by just 1 point -- a statistical tie.

McInnis 44
Ritter 39
Und 10

Ritter 41
Penry 40
Und 12

McInnis served six terms in the House from 1992 to 2004 (in the district now represented by Democrat John Salazar). Penry is 33 years old and a former congressional aide to McInnis. A PPP survey released last month found Penry tied with Ritter and McInnis leading by 8 points.

Ritter's approval rating is up some in the Rasmussen survey to 49%, though his disapproval ratings is up as well (49%). Ritter won in 2006 by 17 points, and Pres. Obama won the state by 9 points in 2008.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele, who recently said America should not be "guilted" into passing health care reform because of Ted Kennedy's death, today called the use by President Obama of a letter from the late senator "bad form."

"I'm sorry, but I just felt a bit unnerved by it, in the sense he just passed," Steele told the Washington Times. "I just thought that was bad form. We all understand and appreciate the role Sen. Kennedy has played in this debate and the passion he brought to health care. I just thought that was a little bit much for me, so soon after his death, using that as a political tool."

Copies of the letter will be distributed to 15 moderate Democrats during a meeting with President Obama at the White House, press secretary Robert Gibbs said today.

When Rep. Joe Wilson (R.-S.C.) blurted out "You lie!" in the middle of Obama's health-care speech last night, he was wrong as well as rude.

Wilson was responding to Obama's assertion that the proposed health reforms would not benefit illegal aliens.

The House health-care legislation specifically states that no subsidies may go to illegal immigrants. It also requires everyone to obtain coverage. Therefore, illegal immigrants would have to buy insurance and pay full freight for it.  That doesn't sound like much of a free lunch to me.

My latest column explains why the health reforms wouldn't  encourage illegal immigration -- and how they might actually help curb it.

And it answers the $64,000 question: How come does Canada have universal coverage and almost no illegal immigrants?

The column can be found here.

www.fromaharrop.com

The latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows that former United States Attorney Chris Christie's lead over embattled Governor Jon Corzine is down to eight points. Christie garners 46% of the vote, Corzine gets 38%, and independent Chris Daggett receives 9% of the vote. Ten percent are undecided.

Rasmussen also explains Christie's lead may be softer than these numbers indicate:

However, it's worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie's lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They're happy to be ahead but can't wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.

...

Corzine's favorable and job approval ratings are up a bit. Forty-five percent (45%) now have a favorable opinion of him and 40% approve of the way he's doing his job. Those figures are up from the mid-thirties in August. However, just 13% Strongly Approve of the job he's doing and 36% Strongly Disapprove.

Christie's numbers are heading in the other direction. Just 42% have a favorable opinion of the GOP hopeful. That's down six points from 48%. But Christie is still trusted more than Corzine on taxes, government spending and cracking down on corruption.

I think this is right.  Christie desperately needs to stay about 50% of the two party vote, and he's barely there.  He hasn't had a particularly effective response to Corzine's attack ads.   The big question is whether he can hang on for two more months.

House Democrats' campaign arm is raising money with the help of a GOP congressman's outburst during President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress last night.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) has since apologized for interrupting the president with a shout of "You lie!" and Republican groups have noted instances when Democrats called George W. Bush a liar, but the Dems aren't taking this opportunity for granted.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has set a fundraising goal of $100,000 over the next two days. Here is an excerpt of the e-mail sent today to the DCCC's contact list:

Last night as President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress on the need for health insurance reform, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson of South Carolina actually screamed out "you lie" on the House floor in front of the full Congress and the entire nation.

Calling the President of the United States a liar in front of the nation is a new low even for House Republicans and it deserves the strongest response we can give. That's why we're issuing a special Rapid Response Alert.

Help us raise $100,000 in the next 48 Hours to send a message to Republicans like Congressman Joe Wilson that we will not stand for our President to be called a liar in front of the nation.

In my opinion last night's speech was, by far, Obama's best effort in laying out his case for reform in clear, understandable terms. He didn't add anything new or much additional detail, so in many respects it was a polished up version of what he's been saying for months.

The end of the speech had a nice flourish; an emotional but tactful reference to the late Ted Kennedy and a heartfelt defense of big government liberalism.  But for those who follow politics and watch these things closely - and especially for those inside the chamber last night - Obama's speech was also exceedingly partisan. One only need to see the huge grins on the faces of folks like Charlie Rangel and Nancy Pelosi to know that - notwithstanding some of the feeble bipartisan window dressing - Obama's tone and aggressive brushbacks of the opposition were deeply pleasing to the base of his party.

And from that angle, I don't see how what happened last night changes the dynamic of the debate very much. The issue of the public option still seems far from resolved, and Obama didn't provide any clarity on the matter last night. Perhaps House liberals will give up on it (as the Senate Democrats appear to have done) so that it does not create a conference committee impasse. But if they don't, then Obama didn't really increase his wiggle room and still faces the same basic choice of siding with liberal Democrats and pushing through a partisan bill (if he can get one through the Senate), or bucking liberals and recouping any lost votes on the left from Blue Dogs and moderate Republicans.

Finally, as to the matter which is attracting more attention than the specifics of Obama's speech: Joe Wilson's outburst was totally inappropriate, as he recognized in his prompt apology. It's bad enough to use the "L" word to describe the President of the United States  - a line Democrats crossed fairly early in the Bush administration and never looked back - but obviously compounds the mistake to blurt it out in the House chamber while the President is giving a speech.

The White House press office has released the following excerpts of President Obama's address to Congress tonight:

I am not the first President to take up this cause, but I am determined to be the last.  It has now been nearly a century since Theodore Roosevelt first called for health care reform.  And ever since, nearly every President and Congress, whether Democrat or Republican, has attempted to meet this challenge in some way.  A bill for comprehensive health reform was first introduced by John Dingell Sr. in 1943.  Sixty-five years later, his son continues to introduce that same bill at the beginning of each session.

Our collective failure to meet this challenge – year after year, decade after decade – has led us to a breaking point.  Everyone understands the extraordinary hardships that are placed on the uninsured, who live every day just one accident or illness away from bankruptcy.  These are not primarily people on welfare.  These are middle-class Americans.  Some can't get insurance on the job.  Others are self-employed, and can't afford it, since buying insurance on your own costs you three times as much as the coverage you get from your employer.   Many other Americans who are willing and able to pay are still denied insurance due to previous illnesses or conditions that insurance companies decide are too risky or expensive to cover.

***

During that time, we have seen Washington at its best and its worst.

We have seen many in this chamber work tirelessly for the better part of this year to offer thoughtful ideas about how to achieve reform.  Of the five committees asked to develop bills, four have completed their work, and the Senate Finance Committee announced today that it will move forward next week.  That has never happened before.  Our overall efforts have been supported by an unprecedented coalition of doctors and nurses; hospitals, seniors' groups and even drug companies – many of whom opposed reform in the past.  And there is agreement in this chamber on about eighty percent of what needs to be done, putting us closer to the goal of reform than we have ever been.

But what we have also seen in these last months is the same partisan spectacle that only hardens the disdain many Americans have toward their own government.  Instead of honest debate, we have seen scare tactics.  Some have dug into unyielding ideological camps that offer no hope of compromise.  Too many have used this as an opportunity to score short-term political points, even if it robs the country of our opportunity to solve a long-term challenge.  And out of this blizzard of charges and counter-charges, confusion has reigned.

Well the time for bickering is over.  The time for games has passed.  Now is the season for action.  Now is when we must bring the best ideas of both parties together, and show the American people that we can still do what we were sent here to do.  Now is the time to deliver on health care.

The plan I'm announcing tonight would meet three basic goals:

It will provide more security and stability to those who have health insurance.  It will provide insurance to those who don't.  And it will slow the growth of health care costs for our families, our businesses, and our government.  It's a plan that asks everyone to take responsibility for meeting this challenge – not just government and insurance companies, but employers and individuals.  And it's a plan that incorporates ideas from Senators and Congressmen; from Democrats and Republicans – and yes, from some of my opponents in both the primary and general election.

***

Here are the details that every American needs to know about this plan:

First, if you are among the hundreds of millions of Americans who already have health insurance through your job, Medicare, Medicaid, or the VA, nothing in this plan will require you or your employer to change the coverage or the doctor you have.  Let me repeat this:  nothing in our plan requires you to change what you have.

What this plan will do is to make the insurance you have work better for you.  Under this plan, it will be against the law for insurance companies to deny you coverage because of a pre-existing condition.  As soon as I sign this bill, it will be against the law for insurance companies to drop your coverage when you get sick or water it down when you need it most.  They will no longer be able to place some arbitrary cap on the amount of coverage you can receive in a given year or a lifetime.  We will place a limit on how much you can be charged for out-of-pocket expenses, because in the United States of America, no one should go broke because they get sick.  And insurance companies will be required to cover, with no extra charge, routine checkups and preventive care, like mammograms and colonoscopies – because there's no reason we shouldn't be catching diseases like breast cancer and colon cancer before they get worse.  That makes sense, it saves money, and it saves lives.

That's what Americans who have health insurance can expect from this plan – more security and stability.

Now, if you're one of the tens of millions of Americans who don't currently have health insurance, the second part of this plan will finally offer you quality, affordable choices.  If you lose your job or change your job, you will be able to get coverage.  If you strike out on your own and start a small business, you will be able to get coverage.  We will do this by creating a new insurance exchange – a marketplace where individuals and small businesses will be able to shop for health insurance at competitive prices.  Insurance companies will have an incentive to participate in this exchange because it lets them compete for millions of new customers.  As one big group, these customers will have greater leverage to bargain with the insurance companies for better prices and quality coverage.  This is how large companies and government employees get affordable insurance.  It's how everyone in this Congress gets affordable insurance.  And it's time to give every American the same opportunity that we've given ourselves.

***

This is the plan I'm proposing.  It's a plan that incorporates ideas from many of the people in this room tonight – Democrats and Republicans.  And I will continue to seek common ground in the weeks ahead.  If you come to me with a serious set of proposals, I will be there to listen.  My door is always open.

But know this:  I will not waste time with those who have made the calculation that it's better politics to kill this plan than improve it.  I will not stand by while the special interests use the same old tactics to keep things exactly the way they are.  If you misrepresent what's in the plan, we will call you out.  And I will not accept the status quo as a solution.  Not this time.  Not now.

Everyone in this room knows what will happen if we do nothing.  Our deficit will grow.  More families will go bankrupt.  More businesses will close.  More Americans will lose their coverage when they are sick and need it most.  And more will die as a result.  We know these things to be true.

That is why we cannot fail.  Because there are too many Americans counting on us to succeed – the ones who suffer silently, and the ones who shared their stories with us at town hall meetings, in emails, and in letters.

A senior White House official held a background briefing this afternoon with reporters to discuss President Obama's speech to Congress tonight. Most of it was embargoed until delivery, but the official did agree to make some preliminary comments for immediate consumption.

In doing so, the official argued that the White House was actually on track with a long-term strategy to pass health care legislation, disputing the meme that August was a lost month. To that end, the official took direct aim at former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as he noted that Republicans have "grudgingly" acknowledged there is a crisis that requires action. Referring to a piece with her byline in today's Wall Street Journal, the official said:

"Even Governor Palin, in the essay that she I know wrote herself as she considered all the complexities of this issue, acknowledged at the front end that there is a significant health care crisis. That alone is important."

It sounded every bit as sarcastic as it reads, and elicited laughter from many in the Roosevelt Room briefing, reporters and staff alike. Payback for "death panels"?

You can read more of the preview over at Politics Nation.

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, the first Democrat to announce her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, now can lay claim to the title of early frontrunner in the state's special election.

Special Primary Election Matchup
Coakley 38
Lynch 11
Markey 10
Capuano 7
Tierney 3
Other 5
Not Sure 25

The field is still developing. But this Rasmussen poll would seem to show the advantage in name recognition that Coakley has as the only statewide elected official tested. She was unknown to just 17 percent of respondents; the rest scored at least double that score.

Favorable Ratings
Coakley 67 / 17
Capuano 27 / 25
Lynch 38 / 26
Meehan 36 / 30
Markey 42 / 29
Tierney 27 / 29

The automated survey of likely primary voters was conducted September 8, and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.