14 months out from election day, Democratic Senator Chris Dodd is in a heap of trouble.  According to Rasmussen Reports, not only is he below 50%, he is below 40%, and his likely GOP opponent, former Representative Rob Simmons, is almost at 50%.  Dodd trails 49%-39%.  Dodd trails former ambassador Tom Foley 43%-40%.  He leads state Senator Sam Caliguri 43%-40%, and venture capitalist Peter Schiff 42%-40%.  His statewide favorables stand at 40%; his unfavorables stand at a whopping 59%

To put things in perspective, this is only slightly better than where Rick Santorum was in 2006.  A September Strategic Vision (R) poll had it at 52%-38% Casey; Keystone had it at 50%-37% Casey, and Quinnipiac had it at 52%-34% Casey.  Santorum lost by 18 points.

There's a long way to go to election day, and Connecticut is a deep blue state right now.  But this has to be considered at least a "Slight Lean Republican" right now, if not a "Lean Republican."  Very few incumbents come back from numbers like this.

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