I find myself unable to write even a single word about the story of Baby P without tearing up. I think that's in part because he bears a such striking resemblance to my youngest son, and it's unbearable for me to contemplate him suffering any of the same agony and abuse as Baby Peter.

But the emotion I feel, while perhaps more acute, is clearly no different than that which shocked the conscience of Great Britain and those around the world who followed Baby P's story - and who've now learned the names of those who killed him.

It's the shock of seeing evil visited on innocence, of struggling to comprehend how any parent could do such things to their child, and of knowing that everyone - the parents, relatives, friends, British social service workers, everyone - failed this little soul.

It's deeply haunting to know that the story of Baby P is not unique. Similar abuses no doubt take place with tragic frequency all over the world.  But, while painful to face, at least the story of Baby P helps focus the collective mind on the horrors of child abuse - even if it simultaneously tears at the threads of one's faith in man kind.

As a follow-up on my last post, Rasmussen Reports is now showing Arlen Specter leading Joe Sestak by only a 47%-34% margin.  This is down from 51%-32% lead in June.  Of course, being below 50% with nearly universal name recognition against an unknown opponent isn't good news.

I think we can expect Specter to support whatever Obamacare bill comes through, and then hope that people either forget about it or it becomes more popular by November 2010.

According to Rasmussen Reports, only 42% of Pennsylvanians support the health care plan proposed by Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats.  53% are opposed.  And as we saw with the national numbers, those intensely opposed to the plan outnumber those who support the plan by a 2:1 margin.  This obviously puts pressure on Arlen Specter, who is opposed by Joe Sestak in the primary and Pat Toomey in the general election.  Specter has to navigate between the Scylla of opposing the health care reform plan and hacking off Democrats -- who still strongly support the plan -- and the Charybdis of supporting it and alienating independents and moderate Republicans.  Unfortunately, he only has two options -- yes or no -- so his only real option is hoping that public opinion turns sharply one way or the other in the next fifteen months.

New CNN poll shows Sarah Palin's favorable rating taking a hit over the last few months. Palin scores an anemic 39% favorable rating in the most recent poll, down seven points from CNN's last survey in May, while her disapproval rating is up 5 points to 48%.

The poll was conducted July 31 through August 3 among 1,136 adults.

A new Marist national poll finds 55% approving of the job President Obama is doing.

This number has been consistent in the four national polls Marist has conducted since April, and now falls in line with most other current polls showing Obama's approval rating in the low- to mid-50s. He currently has a 53.4% RCP Average Approval Rating.

One twist in the new poll is that Obama no longer has the support of a majority of independent voters. After three polls of 51%+ approval among independents, the latest survey finds just 47% approving and 37% disapproving. The number of Republicans who disapprove has jumped 10 points since June to 71%.

Other notable data points from the poll include: 52% approve of Obama's handling of the economy (down 1 point from June), and 74% say he inherited the economic problems (including 55% of Republicans); 50% say Obama's changing the country for the better, 31% say it's for the worse; 50% say the country's moving in the right direction, no change since June.

“I'm as conservative as any governor. I'm chain gang Charlie. I'm pro-gun. I'm pro life,” - Florida Republican Governor (and Senate candidate) Charlie Crist, quoted by Brevard County Republican Executive Committee Jason Steele in a story detailing Crist's charm offensive with the state's conservative activists.

Unemployment at highest level since 1995 - Daily Telegraph

A new poll in the race for Virginia governor finds Republican Bob McDonnell leading by 8 points. The Rasmussen survey (Aug. 10, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) is the latest in a string of polling victories for McDonnell.

He last trailed Democrat Creigh Deeds in a mid-June Rasmussen poll, taken one day after the Democratic primary. The previous Rasmussen poll, conducted in mid-July, found McDonnell up 3 points.

McDonnell 49 (+5 vs. last poll, July 14)
Deeds 41 (nc)

McDonnell leads by 11.2 points in the RCP Average.

New poll from Quinnipiac University (August 5 – 9, 1,301 RV, MoE +/- 2.7 %) shows President Obama's approval rating slipping to 56%, a five point decline from last month and down from his high of 68% in June.

As you might expect, Republican and Democratic attitudes about Obama are already fixed, so Obama's job rating decline in New Jersey this month is driven entirely by defections among Independent voters.

As you can see from the graphic below, Obama has lost a net of 19 points in his job rating with Independents in the last month, and is upside down with this group of voters for the first time:

Independent voters are even less impressed with Obama's handling of the economy: while Obama's overall rating on the economy is 52% approve/ 42% disapprove, with Independents in New Jersey it is reversed: 51% disapprove while 42% approve.

A small plurality of Independents (37%) think Obama's policies have helped the economy thus far (31% think they've hurt) but, interestingly, when asked to determine whether they believe the President's policies will help or hurt the economy "looking ahead," Independents tip slightly against Obama: 42% say his policies will hurt the economy, 39% say they will help.

The numbers are even more striking when voters were asked to evaluate their personal finances. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Independent voters said Obama's policies have "hurt" their personal financial situation, while only 10% said they have "helped."

Asked to "look ahead" at how their personal financial situation will fare under Obama's policies, the view of Independent voters is equally grim. Only 24% of Independents think Obama's policies will help their personal financial situation while close to half (45%) believe this administration's policies are going to hurt their personal financial situation in the future.

While the American public remains broadly supportive of the goals for health reform, a new Rasmussen poll shows that Congress' roadmap for getting there is becoming less and less popular by the week.

Back in late June, 50 percent of respondents supported the bill(s) working through Congress, while 45 percent were opposed.  Today the numbers are 42 percent in favor, 53 percent opposed.  More troubling for proponents of reform, the intensity of opposition to the reform is high, with 44 percent of respondents strongly opposing the effort, while only 26 percent strongly support it.

This is beginning to remind me of the debate on social security, where voters were broadly in favor of measures such as "shoring up social security," and even in favor of the actual plan making its way through Congress: voluntary partial accounts restricted to younger voters.  But the perception of what the plan contained got away from the reality, and it floundered.

It is way too early to predict doom for health care reform, even with a public option.  There's too much of a growing perception that failure to pass it will wreck Obama's Presidency (hint: Obama's Presidency will rise and fall with the economy, just like almost every President's).  But these numbers are sobering, and could indicate real problems for 2010 if Congress rams through a bill that is perceived poorly by the public.