SurveyUSA's latest polling shows Secretary of State Trey Grayson leading both Democratic candidates for the race to replace retiring Senator Jim Bunning.  He leads Lieutenant Governor and 2004 Bunning foe Dan Mongiardo 46%-40%, and Attorney General Jack Conway 43%-38%.  Ron Paul's son Rand loses to both candidates by fairly narrow margins.  Both Grayson and Mongiardo lead their respective primaries, Grayson by eleven points and Mongiardo by eight.

On the heels of a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll yesterday showing Republican Bill McCollum with a 9-point lead over Democrat Alex Sink, Quinnipiac University is out with a poll this morning also showing McCollum surging ahead.

The Quinnipiac survey (conducted August 12 – 17, 1,136 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points) shows McCollum ahead of Sink by four points, 38 to 34, a reversal of Quinnipiac's last poll June 9 which showed Sink with a 38-34 lead.

The movement is due almost exclusively to a big swing among Independents: on June 9 Independents supported Sink over McCollum by five points, 37 to 32, in the current poll they break for McCollum by a whopping fifteen points, 38 to 23.

In the race for the Senate, Republican Charlie Crist continues to hold a huge lead over underdog Marco Rubio, 55 to 26.

On the Democratic side, the race is wide open: with 18% of the vote Kendrick Meek holds a small lead over fellow Reps. Ron Klein (12%) and Corrine Brown (9%), with nearly six in ten voters undecided.

A new NBC News poll finds President Obama's job approval at 51%, down 2 points from an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released last month.

The survey was taken Aug. 15-17 of 805 adults with a +/- 3.5% margin of error.

On health care, the top issue of the month and likely the year, just 41% approve of his handling it and 47% disapprove. Just more than one-third (36%) believe Obama's efforts to reform the health care system is a good idea and a quarter (24%) think health care quality will improve because of it.

Still, 60% think the system needs either a "complete overhaul" or "major reform." Also, 43% are in favor of a public option while 47% oppose it. Respondents were split over whether the protests of health care townhalls this month have done more harm or more good.

More from NBC's Mark Murray:

A plurality believes Obama's health plan would worsen the quality of health care, a result that is virtually unchanged from last month's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. What's more, only four in 10 approve of the president's handling of the issue, which also is unchanged from July.

Carly Fiorina, a former Hewlett Packard CEO and economic adviser to 2008 presidential candidate John McCain, took one step closer to making official her bid for the U.S. Senate in California. Fiorina registered a campaign committee -- "Carly for California" -- allowing her to begin raising cash for the 2010 election, AP reports.

In a statement, Fiorina said she had been encouraged to run by "people across the political spectrum" and will begin meeting with policy advisers and financial donors.

"The people of California have serious concerns about job creation, economic growth and the role of government in solving problems that touch each of our lives," she said.

Spokeswoman Beth Miller said Fiorina would not be available Tuesday for an interview, and there was no timetable for making a formal announcement about a Senate bid.

Fiorina, who was known as a powerful and successful businesswoman until her ouster at HP in 2005, was front-and-center as a McCain surrogate last year, making appearances on radio and TV in support of the GOP nominee. That changed, though, when in two mid-September interviews Fiorina said neither John McCain nor Sarah Palin could run a corporation, such as HP.

She's now aiming for the seat of three-term Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). A survey last week from the liberal Daily Kos, conducted by independent pollster Research 2000, found Boxer with a 21-point lead.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee quickly jumped on today's news, issuing a statement criticizing Fiorina's record.

"This is a person who was fired from Hewlett Packard for running the company into the ground, fired from the McCain Presidential Campaign for incompetence, and now thinks the people of California are going to hire her. Carly Fiorina was named one of the twenty worst CEOs in the country yet still escaped with a 21 million dollar golden parachute," said DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz.

Rick Pearson has the deets:

Merchandise Mart mogul and political heir Chris Kennedy is telling supporters today he isn't running for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Roland Burris.

An aide said that the same holds true for a run for governor.

In a letter e-mailed today, Kennedy, the son of the late Robert F. Kennedy, said he “decided not to run” for the Senate. “The decision wasn't easy to arrive at,” he said, and he joked that in wanting to consult with his family members, “just speaking to them can take months.”

“In the end, I did not want to have to leave the state in order to serve it,” Kennedy said. “They say love conquers all, and in my case, it conquered ambition.  I realize that I would rather be a good husband and a good father than a good Washington politician.”

That leaves State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias as the lone declared Democratic candidate, though Urban League President Cheryle Jackson says she also plans to join the fray.

A poll released just yesterday shows both Democrats trailing Republican Mark Kirk.

One of the giants of political journalism has passed. Lynn Sweet has the details.

Colorado voters don't much approve of Sen. Michael Bennet (D). On the bright side for him, they don't think much of his potential Republican opponents either.

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (Aug 14-16, 969 LV, MoE +/- 3.2%) finds 38 percent disapproving of the job Bennet is doing, with just 31 percent approving -- lower but not far from his numbers in April. Former Rep. Bob Beauprez, who's considering a bid and is the most well-known of the three GOPers tested against Bennet, is seen unfavorably by 40 percent of voters, with 30 percent holding a favorable view of him.

Already running are Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier. Buck gets a 18%/19% favorable rating, and Frazier's is 11%/19%. Not tested was former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, who the Denver Post reports will decide whether or not to run within the next month.

Bennet holds small leads over Buck and Frazier, but trails Beauprez -- who lost the 2006 gubernatorial race by 17 points.

Bennet 39 - Beauprez 42 - Und 19

Bennet 39 - Buck 35 - Und 26

Bennet 38 - Frazier 33 - Und 30

Republican Minority Leader John Boehner gives his former colleague Billy Tauzin, now head of PhRMA, a public pop in the nose with this letter chastising him for cutting a deal with the White House.

(more...)

New Marist poll of 2012 shows the same thing we've seen from other polls in the Republican primary: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are clustered at the top, with others trailing far behind:

Romney 21%
Palin 20%
Huckabee 19%
Gingrich 10%
Jindal 5%
Pawlenty 1%
Undecided 11%

In a hypothetical general election match up against President Obama, Palin gets crushed 56 to 33. Other than winning Republicans by a margin of 73-20, Palin loses to Obama in every other data cut: by region, income, education, race, age, and gender.

More on Palin: According to Marist, 61% of respondents (including 51% of Republicans) said Palin's decision to resign as the Governor of Alaska "hurt" her running for President in 2012.

Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating is a net -6 among all registered voters (37/43). Among Republicans Palin has a net +53 favorable rating (73/16), while Independent voters are equally split in their opinion of Palin with 36% viewing her favorably and 37% viewing her unfavorably.